Where we land in ACC tourney

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RedlessWardrobe
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7:58a, 3/5/26
Need a little help here. First, let's start with the hope that we win against WF on Saturday. After that we would still need at the very least, a win in the first game of the ACC tourney.

I'm an old school guy in both watching sports and sometimes betting on sports. I believe in the "reversal theory."
Because of that I would not like to face SMU in the first round. I know they have lost three straight, but still I get this feeling if we face them again we will have a tough time. To a lesser degree, the same goes for facing Furd, although they don't scare me as much.

So for you posters that are so good at figuring this sh*t out, if we win Saturday, based on the other ACC games, where do we land in the standings and who would we play in the first game next week? Can anyone throw some answers out there? It would be greatly appreciated.
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HaasCampOut
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8:59a, 3/5/26
If we beat Wake Forest, the worst we can do is a 9-seed (would happen if Florida St beats SMU and finishes tied at 10-8 with the head-to-head tiebreaker with us).

The best scenario is finishing as a 7-seed, but that would mean Stanford beats NC State and SMU beats Florida State so that we are in a 10-8 tie with only NC State and would have the tiebreaker with them since you compare records against the best teams in the conference (Duke - both lost, Virginia - both lost, Miami - Cal won, NC State lost).

I'm less sure of what happens if Florida St. wins, we win, and NC State loses, but I believe then NC State gets in on the combined record tiebreaker in common games (1-0), which would then have Florida St 8th seed (1-1), and us 9th (0-1) among those three teams, but it's less clear if that's a relevant tiebreaker.

As for the likely opponent, it seems like those same teams we are jockeying with are likely opponents (SMU, Florida St, unless as a 7 seed we get the 15 seed like Pitt or ND if they upset the 10).
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socaltownie
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In reply to HaasCampOut • 9:28a, 3/5/26
HaasCampOut said:
If we beat Wake Forest, the worst we can do is a 9-seed (would happen if Florida St beats SMU and finishes tied at 10-8 with the head-to-head tiebreaker with us).

The best scenario is finishing as a 7-seed, but that would mean Stanford beats NC State and SMU beats Florida State so that we are in a 10-8 tie with only NC State and would have the tiebreaker with them since you compare records against the best teams in the conference (Duke - both lost, Virginia - both lost, Miami - Cal won, NC State lost).

I'm less sure of what happens if Florida St. wins, we win, and NC State loses, but I believe then NC State gets in on the combined record tiebreaker in common games (1-0), which would then have Florida St 8th seed (1-1), and us 9th (0-1) among those three teams, but it's less clear if that's a relevant tiebreaker.

As for the likely opponent, it seems like those same teams we are jockeying with are likely opponents (SMU, Florida St, unless as a 7 seed we get the 15 seed like Pitt or ND if they upset the 10).


Ty!!! A 7 seed wouls amazing. Fingers crossed.
Take care of your Chicken
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Strykur
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1:06p, 3/5/26
Trees beating NC State might be a tall order, NC State has been in a slide lately but blew out Carolina so if they are still in a funk, maybe there is a chance
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Basketball Bear
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1:23p, 3/5/26
As of this minute we would be playing Florida St in the 8/9 game and the winner would face Duke. If Florida St loses this weekend they will do no worse than the 9 seed.

By the way CBS Sports has us in as the last four in.

[url=https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/TEXAM/texas-am-aggies/][/url]
Texas A&M(20-10)
43

[url=https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/SNCLRA/santa-clara-broncos/][/url]
Santa Clara(24-7)
41

[url=https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/VCU/vcu-rams/][/url]
VCU(23-7)
46
[url=https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/CAL/california-golden-bears/][/url]
California(21-9)
64
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baytobreakers
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3:40p, 3/5/26
https://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Seed Predictor
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TedfordTheGreat
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6:22p, 3/5/26
I gotta think we want that 7 seed so we can get a chance to match up against Virginia instead of Duke in that 2nd round (assuming we win the first round)

Wake, then a win vs stanford/FSU/SMU, then a win against Virginia and we are a lock
Wake, then a win vs stanford/fsu/smu and then a close loss against Virginia / Duke and we might still have a shot

Anything else I am not so sure
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Cal88
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In reply to TedfordTheGreat • 10:56p, 3/5/26
TedfordTheGreat said:
I gotta think we want that 7 seed so we can get a chance to match up against Virginia instead of Duke in that 2nd round (assuming we win the first round)

Wake, then a win vs stanford/FSU/SMU, then a win against Virginia and we are a lock
Wake, then a win vs stanford/fsu/smu and then a close loss against Virginia / Duke and we might still have a shot

Anything else I am not so sure


Why would we be ahead of NCSt if they lose to Furd and we beat Wake, we would both be 10-8, what's the tiebreaker given that we didn't play them? We've played GT twice, they are the weakest team in the ACC, so our conference sched is slightly worse than theirs.

I like the 8/9 seed leading to the Duke matchup better because we wouldn't be expected to win and wouldn't be punished for losing, we would play with zero pressure, maybe shoot pretty well as a result, and get an extra day of rest for the tourney if we do make it.
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OneKeg
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:32a, 3/6/26
Cal88 said:
TedfordTheGreat said:
I gotta think we want that 7 seed so we can get a chance to match up against Virginia instead of Duke in that 2nd round (assuming we win the first round)

Wake, then a win vs stanford/FSU/SMU, then a win against Virginia and we are a lock
Wake, then a win vs stanford/fsu/smu and then a close loss against Virginia / Duke and we might still have a shot

Anything else I am not so sure


Why would we be ahead of NCSt if they lose to Furd and we beat Wake, we would both be 10-8, what's the tiebreaker given that we didn't play them? We've played GT twice, they are the weakest team in the ACC, so our conference sched is slightly worse than theirs.

I like the 8/9 seed leading to the Duke matchup better because we wouldn't be expected to win and wouldn't be punished for losing, we would play with zero pressure, maybe shoot pretty well as a result, and get an extra day of rest for the tourney if we do make it.

Above, HaasCampOut explained the H2H tiebreaker between Cal and NC State in this situation, I think:

"...you compare records against the best teams in the conference (Duke - both lost, Virginia - both lost, Miami - Cal won, NC State lost)"
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RedlessWardrobe
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7:34a, 3/6/26
Yes I believe in this case the tiebraker starts from the top of the league down until there is a difference in results.
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6956bear
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In reply to TedfordTheGreat • 9:32a, 3/6/26
TedfordTheGreat said:
I gotta think we want that 7 seed so we can get a chance to match up against Virginia instead of Duke in that 2nd round (assuming we win the first round)

Wake, then a win vs stanford/FSU/SMU, then a win against Virginia and we are a lock
Wake, then a win vs stanford/fsu/smu and then a close loss against Virginia / Duke and we might still have a shot

Anything else I am not so sure

I think getting to the 7th seed is valuable. For many weeks now the bracketologists haven believed the ACC was likely to get 8 teams in. So being in the top 7 has value.

But with SMU and NC State both losing a lot down the stretch I am less certain 8 is the number. SMU has absolutely played itself on to the bubble. And If NC St loses to Stanford they may very well be in bubble territory as well.

Cal has 2 things in its favor if they can beat Wake. The first would be another quad 1 win which would be 5 Q1 wins. And the 2nd is the big wins over UNC and Miami. Cal has a pretty good wins above bubble score (WAB) but the predictive measures are less favorable. Their NET number is unlikely to change much due to the super weak OOC schedule. But their good Q1 wins and WAB score should help.

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