RedlessWardrobe said:
Onebearofpower said:
RedlessWardrobe said:
Honestly, even if we were to beat FSU and by some miracle Duke, we are still not in. Really.
Please explain how we wouldn't be in by beating the number 1 team in the nation when every bubble team lost today.
Because the committee goes by the entire season. They don't look at one day, or one win. Our overall power ranking is too low. How many of those other bubble teams lost to a team like Pitt? Highly unlikely.
If we were to win 3 straight in the ACC, and then play a competitive championship game we'd probably make it.
Anything short of that forget it. (Of course I would be more than happy to eat my words.)
I'm sorry but you are just dead wrong. And it seems like you just don't know the resumes of these teams or something or the fact that you can't get passed when you lose a Q1 on the road by 7 and literally every bubble team also some badly.
I'll give you the bubble and their losses:
Ohio State(hardly bubble) also lost to Pitt.
NC State has lost 6 of their last 7 and lost a Quad 4 to Georgia Tech.
18-13 Indiana has lost 5 of their last 6 and they lost to Northwestern at home.
19-12 SMU who we have a head to head win against, has lost their last four games, no horrible losses but they did lose to LSU(worst team in the SEC) at a neutral site.
18-12 Texas has lost 3 of their last 4 and plays another non tourney team today, they lost to Miss State at home.
16-14 Auburn has lost 7 of their last nine and lost to both Ole Miss and Miss State. They also play Alabama tonight so they are in not unlikely shape to end with 15 regular season losses.
24-7 SCU has lost to #304 Loyola Chicago and they haven't beaten a soul other than Saint Mary's.
21-10 TCU(Likely in and off the bubble) has lost to #212 New Orleans at home and Notre Dame at home.
21-9 New Mexico has lost to both #189 New Mexico State and #82 CSU at home. They have also lost three of their last 4.
20-10 SDSU has lost to #141 Troy and has also lost 4 of their last six games.
20-10 UCF has lost their last 3 games all to projected non tournament teams and one of which was Q3 to Oklahoma State.
20-10 Missouri(I would guess is prob in) Has lost their last two and lost to Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and LSU.
18-13 WVU has lost 4 of their last 6 and has lost to #127 Utah, Xavier, and multiple other non tourney teams.
20-10 Ugh Stanford has lost to #111 UNLV, #119 Seattle, and Notre Dame all at home.
24-7 VCU lost to #96 George Mason and has not beaten a single projected at large team and their quad 1s(2) are hanging on to the boundary at 49(50) and 75(75).
18-13 Okla ST no real bad bad losses but also only two Q1s and losses to many non tournament teams(plus OKSU is off the bubble by a little bit).
19-12 VTU lost by 23 to FSU at home formerly Q3, they don't have any real bad losses but they also only have two Q1s.
20-10 Texas A&M is prob in and doesn't have any bad losses
17-14 Cinncinati lost to #240 Eastern Michigan and Xavier
20-11 Seton Hall has two Q3 losses and lost to Depaul TWICE and Creighton and Butler.
18-12 USC has lost to UW twice, Northwestern, Oregon, and oh they have lost 6 straight and are likely to lose again. They also lost their best player.
SLU just lost by 30 today who knows where they are in all of this.
The Net isn't a science and this is a very weird year. We are below #60 BSU who is 20-13 and lost to Hawaii Pacific to start the year and also lost to #111 UNLV twice this year.
I think frankly you just gotta research these teams because it isn't as clear cut as "they have a higher NET", it is about the resume it always has been. And if everyone else didn't lose today we would be in a lot worse of a situation but they did so we can't fall very far when literally every team lost and our loss isn't bad especially as it is Q1 and only by 7. Many teams lost at home against worse competition.
I also think the Bid Stealing is getting blown out of proportion. If you think that KSU is going to win the Big 12 then that is fine but it is so so unlikely. The only real bid stealer threats are Saint Joseph's, Dayton, George Mason in the A10. Colorado State, Nevada, prob BSU, and GCU in the MW. And Akron in the MAC. Nobody else is even close to a serious threat and even those are pretty unlikely to occur.
Teams like UMN and SDSU are not bid stealers because we aren't losing an at large spot for them as they would be in if they made their Conf. Tourney games. Same goes for VCU and Seton Hall. Wouldn't be good for us but that doesn't take away a bid from the whole bubble it is just a bubble team improving their resume.
We have 4Q1 Wins and you can't take that away from us. And they are against legit teams also not freaking Northwestern who has wayyyy too high a Net for their performance, they have been against good tournament teams and then our biggest rival who has also beat many good teams(They just have way more Q3 losses). Many of these teams have half of that or less and still have a bad loss or two. If they lose in their Tourneys they are also in big trouble.
I think anyone that is saying we need to make the championship game in the ACC or doesn't think we are in for sure if we beat Duke, isn't fully understanding the bubble situations and how likely a bid stealer actually is. If you're gonna talk about predictives then I'm not sure why we are even playing the games then. The predictives have been wrong for like half our games and many many others because they can't account for so many intangibles and they don't actually value winning the game.
Today was a horribly sad loss that was partially on the players in the second half, but also on the officials for screwing us over time and time again and letting Wake stay in the game and giving them momentum. But let's not let it cloud our vision on what the bubble actually looks like and what teams are doing around us. Let's take it one day at time and beat FSU. If we do that I guarantee we won't know for sure that our season and dancing hopes are dead.
