MiZery said:
Hoops HQ has us in last four in
https://www.hoopshq.com/rankings/bracketology-2026-mens-ncaa-tournament-projections-4
Quote:
- In a game that had major bubble implications, California came away with the win at Miami (FL) by a score of 86-85. It's a big win for Cal, who also has wins over UCLA, UNC and at Stanford. Conversely, the loss for the Hurricanes is a problem. You know how many wins they have over teams currently in the field? The answer is zero.
The bubble is a mess. Will dive into it today.
— T3™️ (@T3Bracketology) February 1, 2026
15 teams for 8 spots.
Saint Mary’s
New Mexico
California
Virginia Tech
Miami FL
Indiana
UCLA
Santa Clara
Texas
Missouri
Seton Hall
George Mason
Ohio St
Oklahoma St
San Diego St
MiZery said:
What happens if we have a lower NET ranking than a team and they are ahead of us in the ACC standings?
calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
MiZery said:
Also the Kansas State game. KSU is not good
bearsandgiants said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
If we win 7 of our last 9, plus at least one game in the ACC tournament, I'd bet my life we'll be in. I think if we go 6-3 plus an ACC game, we'll be in. A bunch of other teams will fall apart and go .500 from here on out who are above us. Some of those teams have a lighter remaining schedule. We'll be fine.
bearsandgiants said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
If we win 7 of our last 9, plus at least one game in the ACC tournament, I'd bet my life we'll be in. I think if we go 6-3 plus an ACC game, we'll be in. A bunch of other teams will fall apart and go .500 from here on out who are above us. Some of those teams have a lighter remaining schedule. We'll be fine.
calumnus said:bearsandgiants said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
If we win 7 of our last 9, plus at least one game in the ACC tournament, I'd bet my life we'll be in. I think if we go 6-3 plus an ACC game, we'll be in. A bunch of other teams will fall apart and go .500 from here on out who are above us. Some of those teams have a lighter remaining schedule. We'll be fine.
I think 6-3 with a win and a loss in the ACC Tournament (the dreaded 10 total losses) is quite possible, maybe even likely given our play so far. It would essentially be winning and losing the games we are currently expected to win or lose. Our NET rating would probably still be in the 50s and we would be among those having our bubble burst as so many experts are currently predicting. To advance in the standings and play our way in we need to play better than we have so far and beat the teams we are currently favored to beat AND a couple of the teams we are not favored to beat. We need to up our game. Beating Miami was great, but that was offset by losing to Florida State. We need to be more consistent.
The good news is that if we get Dort back healthy I think that is entirely likely. Camden and Bell are shooting well again. I think we really could step up our game. Eliminate the bad turnovers. It is all very possible. I think our best basketball could still be ahead of us, but we really need Dort back healthy.
socaltownie said:
Other years I have felt very nervous about this and worried myself sick on Selection Sunday. But this year, given pre-season expectations, we are SO playing with house money. As they said on the telecast we were picked 16 out of 17. The fact that we are even having this discussion and have the chance to go .500+ in ACC play has me happy as a bear and what happens on selection Sunday happens. Indeed, I don't want to over obsess because it takes away from what has been a HIGHLY entertaining year of BB with a team that it is VERY easy to like.
The interesting thing is that teams like Cal that are "in" will get the seed of death (the 8/9) so I would rather sneak in and get the 12-5 and hope for a good matchup ;-)
Cal88 said:calumnus said:bearsandgiants said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
If we win 7 of our last 9, plus at least one game in the ACC tournament, I'd bet my life we'll be in. I think if we go 6-3 plus an ACC game, we'll be in. A bunch of other teams will fall apart and go .500 from here on out who are above us. Some of those teams have a lighter remaining schedule. We'll be fine.
I think 6-3 with a win and a loss in the ACC Tournament (the dreaded 10 total losses) is quite possible, maybe even likely given our play so far. It would essentially be winning and losing the games we are currently expected to win or lose. Our NET rating would probably still be in the 50s and we would be among those having our bubble burst as so many experts are currently predicting. To advance in the standings and play our way in we need to play better than we have so far and beat the teams we are currently favored to beat AND a couple of the teams we are not favored to beat. We need to up our game. Beating Miami was great, but that was offset by losing to Florida State. We need to be more consistent.
The good news is that if we get Dort back healthy I think that is entirely likely. Camden and Bell are shooting well again. I think we really could step up our game. Eliminate the bad turnovers. It is all very possible. I think our best basketball could still be ahead of us, but we really need Dort back healthy.
We have a team this season with almost all new personnel, so you can expect the team to improve over the course of the season as players get more familiar with the system and their teammates, ie, more upside with the gelling than with a team that's already been in place going into the season.
This also validates the choice of an easier OOC schedule in order to avoid losses that would really hurt our resume, given that the long ACC round robin will eventually take care of the SOS.
BeachedBear said:
Admit it. We are SOOOOO happy to be having this problem, right now.
sycasey said:BeachedBear said:
Admit it. We are SOOOOO happy to be having this problem, right now.
Absolutely. To even be in the bubble conversation at this point is well above my expectations. Shows that perhaps Madsen actually is able to raise the floor as a coach. I was very skeptical of that until now.
MiZery said:
Possibly losing Dort for season will really hurt us. Hopefully he returns.
calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
OdontoBear66 said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
You think it takes 23 to 24 to get in this year...I had heard more 21 as maybe, 22 a pretty sure thing???
Especially with the number of Quad 1 wins we have to date....
BeachedBear said:OdontoBear66 said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
You think it takes 23 to 24 to get in this year...I had heard more 21 as maybe, 22 a pretty sure thing???
Especially with the number of Quad 1 wins we have to date....
21 wins means going 5-4 out of our last 9. That would likely DROP us out. 22 wins and 6-3 probably keeps us out as well.
The selection committee doesn't really look at number of wins anymore (hasn't for quite a while). I would focus on NET ranking first. Probably need to be in the 40s or higher to make it.
At 15 wins (Dominican doesn't count), we're currently 51. That means we need to improve a bit. With 9 games, left - probably need to win 7 or 8 of them. That would equate 23 or 24 wins (if we add Dominican back in).
BeachedBear said:OdontoBear66 said:calumnus said:
I think we are currently out but can still play ourselves in. However, that probably means winning 7 or more likely 8 of our remaining 9. And/or get some good wins in the ACC Tournament.
The FSU and VT losses hurt. We can't lose more of those.
You think it takes 23 to 24 to get in this year...I had heard more 21 as maybe, 22 a pretty sure thing???
Especially with the number of Quad 1 wins we have to date....
21 wins means going 5-4 out of our last 9. That would likely DROP us out. 22 wins and 6-3 probably keeps us out as well.
The selection committee doesn't really look at number of wins anymore (hasn't for quite a while). I would focus on NET ranking first. Probably need to be in the 40s or higher to make it.
At 15 wins (Dominican doesn't count), we're currently 51. That means we need to improve a bit. With 9 games, left - probably need to win 7 or 8 of them. That would equate 23 or 24 wins (if we add Dominican back in).
BeachedBear said:
> So win out at home and split on the road. Easy peasy.
MiZery said:
SMU vs Nc State. Who do we want to win? I'd imagine SMU...
