NCAA projections

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oskidunker
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In reply to calumnus • 6:59p, 2/10/26
calumnus said:
bearsandgiants said:
Onebearofpower said:
I don't know if we need 24 wins. I think if we were to win the 6 games we wouldn't need the ACC tournament win. Who knows but if we won 23 games in the reg. season we would have 5-6 Q1 wins.

23 is likely the magic number, no matter who we beat from here on out. let's get one tomorrow.


Last year SMU went 23-10 (13-7 in the ACC) and went to the NIT (finishing 24-11). That included a win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before losing to #10 Clemsen. They were #46 in NET, 0-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 12-0 Q3 and 5-0 Q4.

If we win 23 I don't think we will have as good of a NET but we will have better Q1 wins.

Really, it will come down to the others we are competing against for the final at large slots and the whims of the Committee. 23 could be good enough, but it might not. It is still bubble.



20 used to be it
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stu
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In reply to oskidunker • 7:30p, 2/10/26
oskidunker said:
calumnus said:
bearsandgiants said:
Onebearofpower said:
I don't know if we need 24 wins. I think if we were to win the 6 games we wouldn't need the ACC tournament win. Who knows but if we won 23 games in the reg. season we would have 5-6 Q1 wins.

23 is likely the magic number, no matter who we beat from here on out. let's get one tomorrow.


Last year SMU went 23-10 (13-7 in the ACC) and went to the NIT (finishing 24-11). That included a win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before losing to #10 Clemsen. They were #46 in NET, 0-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 12-0 Q3 and 5-0 Q4.

If we win 23 I don't think we will have as good of a NET but we will have better Q1 wins.

Really, it will come down to the others we are competing against for the final at large slots and the whims of the Committee. 23 could be good enough, but it might not. It is still bubble.



20 used to be it

Grade inflation.
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ManBearLion123
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12:07a, 2/11/26
Two positive bubble results from Tuesday night: Baylor lost to BYU and Oklahoma State lost @ ASU.

One big negative result: TCU beat #5 Iowa State.

Miami beating UNC pushes them closer to safe territory as far as their tourney prospects, but at least the silver lining there is that it makes our road win against them look even better.The committee seems to put a lot of emphasis on quality road/neutral site wins.
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ManBearLion123
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In reply to calumnus • 12:12a, 2/11/26
calumnus said:
bearsandgiants said:
Onebearofpower said:
I don't know if we need 24 wins. I think if we were to win the 6 games we wouldn't need the ACC tournament win. Who knows but if we won 23 games in the reg. season we would have 5-6 Q1 wins.

23 is likely the magic number, no matter who we beat from here on out. let's get one tomorrow.


Last year SMU went 23-10 (13-7 in the ACC) and went to the NIT (finishing 24-11). That included a win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before losing to #10 Clemsen. They were #46 in NET, 0-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 12-0 Q3 and 5-0 Q4.

If we win 23 I don't think we will have as good of a NET but we will have better Q1 wins.

Really, it will come down to the others we are competing against for the final at large slots and the whims of the Committee. 23 could be good enough, but it might not. It is still bubble.



No Q1 wins killed SMU. We currently have 4 Q1 wins, which looks pretty good compared to some other teams on the bubble. The committee really emphasizes quality wins over pure quantity.

I think 23 win most likely gets us in given the fact that we already have a handful of Q1 wins (including 2 on the road).
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calumnus
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3:29a, 2/11/26
According to Lunardi, the bubble teams in predicted order with the top 4 getting in (bottom 4 first out) and current NET ranking are:
36 Texas
37 Miami
42 San Diego State
45 New Mexico
39 Ohio State
61 Missouri
58 California
55 Virginia Tech

If this is true, we need to move ahead of three teams above us to get in. Unless there are upsets in the conference tournaments, then we will need to jump more. We can be better than SMU was last year and still suffer their same fate. We need to be better than the other teams vying for last in. Root for Cal, but also root against the other 7 we are competing with (or 6, since we want Miami to keep winning so our win helps us). In particular I'm rooting against Texas, San Diego State, New Mexico and Ohio State.
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sycasey
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In reply to ManBearLion123 • 8:54a, 2/11/26
ManBearLion123 said:
calumnus said:
bearsandgiants said:
Onebearofpower said:
I don't know if we need 24 wins. I think if we were to win the 6 games we wouldn't need the ACC tournament win. Who knows but if we won 23 games in the reg. season we would have 5-6 Q1 wins.

23 is likely the magic number, no matter who we beat from here on out. let's get one tomorrow.


Last year SMU went 23-10 (13-7 in the ACC) and went to the NIT (finishing 24-11). That included a win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before losing to #10 Clemsen. They were #46 in NET, 0-5 Q1, 6-5 Q2, 12-0 Q3 and 5-0 Q4.

If we win 23 I don't think we will have as good of a NET but we will have better Q1 wins.

Really, it will come down to the others we are competing against for the final at large slots and the whims of the Committee. 23 could be good enough, but it might not. It is still bubble.



No Q1 wins killed SMU. We currently have 4 Q1 wins, which looks pretty good compared to some other teams on the bubble. The committee really emphasizes quality wins over pure quantity.

I think 23 win most likely gets us in given the fact that we already have a handful of Q1 wins (including 2 on the road).

Yeah, and they didn't have Q1 wins because the ACC was weaker. It's strong this year so there are more chances for big wins.
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smh
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In reply to calumnus • 9:57a, 2/11/26
calumnus.. rooting against, sorry, is too hard. # go bears
sighned, not dead yet # funk trunk; i.c.e. too
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ManBearLion123
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10:15a, 2/11/26
Big day on the bubble today.

In addition to our game @ 'Cuse, fellow bubble teams Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico, VA Tech, VCU, Santa Clara, U$C and St. Mary's all play today. Could see a lot of movement around the cut line after tonight.
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ManBearLion123
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12:43p, 2/11/26
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calumnus
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In reply to ManBearLion123 • 2:10p, 2/11/26
ManBearLion123 said:

Nice company. We are also two teams "worst loss." Man, it is fun to be in the discussion again!

Every single game from now on is huge.
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sycasey
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In reply to calumnus • 4:14p, 2/11/26
calumnus said:
ManBearLion123 said:

Nice company. We are also two teams "worst loss." Man, it is fun to be in the discussion again!

Every single game from now on is huge.

If Cal is your worst loss it's not bad (especially given that in both cases the game was at Cal or neutral).
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HoopDreams
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In reply to ManBearLion123 • 9:09p, 2/11/26
ManBearLion123 said:
Big day on the bubble today.

In addition to our game @ 'Cuse, fellow bubble teams Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico, VA Tech, VCU, Santa Clara, U$C and St. Mary's all play today. Could see a lot of movement around the cut line after tonight.

unfortunately most of those teams won today
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ManBearLion123
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In reply to HoopDreams • 10:14p, 2/11/26
HoopDreams said:
ManBearLion123 said:
Big day on the bubble today.

In addition to our game @ 'Cuse, fellow bubble teams Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico, VA Tech, VCU, Santa Clara, U$C and St. Mary's all play today. Could see a lot of movement around the cut line after tonight.

unfortunately most of those teams won today


Yep, pretty much all the bubble teams around us had big wins. Missouri and VA Tech beat very good teams on the road. We'll be in the "Next 4 Out" at best in the next update.
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ManBearLion123
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12:47p, 2/12/26
I think we're at the point where we shouldn't even worry about other bubble results. Unless we go 6-0 or 5-1 (along with a win in the ACC tourney), we won't be in regardless.

Maybe we can start peeking at bubble results again if we win 3-4 in a row.
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Big C
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In reply to ManBearLion123 • 1:30p, 2/12/26

If you believe in the Woofing Gods, we really overdid it the past 4-6 weeks, with all of this March Madness talk.
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ManBearLion123
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In reply to Big C • 1:36p, 2/12/26
Big C said:

If you believe in the Woofing Gods, we really overdid it the past 4-6 weeks, with all of this March Madness talk.

Meh, what are these forums for if not for speculating about such things (especially when we were looking to be in pretty decent shape)?

Before the Clemson blow out, the path to the tourney looked pretty doable. Now, it looks quite unlikely.
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smh
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In reply to Big C • 1:44p, 2/12/26
Big C said:

If you believe in the Woofing Gods, we really overdid it the past 4-6 weeks, with all of this March Madness talk.

more importantly do the gods believe in US?
'em
sighned, not dead yet # funk trunk; i.c.e. too
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calumnus
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In reply to ManBearLion123 • 8:57p, 2/12/26
ManBearLion123 said:
Big C said:

If you believe in the Woofing Gods, we really overdid it the past 4-6 weeks, with all of this March Madness talk.

Meh, what are these forums for if not for speculating about such things (especially when we were looking to be in pretty decent shape)?

Before the Clemson blow out, the path to the tourney looked pretty doable. Now, it looks quite unlikely.

Clemsen blowout had zero impact other than our perceptions since the NET reportedly does not include margin of victory. If we beat Syracuse we would still be in the hunt. Technically we still are but we cannot lose another game.
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HoopDreams
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9:24p, 2/12/26
We need to absolutely beat BC to stay in the hunt

Right now that's all I'm focusing on
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cal83dls79
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7:49p, 2/13/26
https://www.si.com/college/cal/basketball/why-north-carolina-star-caleb-wilson-s-broken-hand-is-bad-for-cal-01kha97z4jc7
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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6956bear
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In reply to HoopDreams • 5:38a, 2/14/26
HoopDreams said:
We need to absolutely beat BC to stay in the hunt

Right now that's all I'm focusing on

Cal has 6 games left. 5 is the minimum number they need to win. But they really need to avoid the catastrophic loss as well. BC would qualify as a catastrophic loss.

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