It's not that simple but if we do that there is a really good chance we will be in.

We were "bubble in" before Pitt, then bubble out now, but two more wins would put us back into bubble in territory, and yeah tournament upsets could change things the wrong way, and conversely rival bubble teams losing this weekend or too early in their tournament can also nudge us up.

OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

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a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

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How many actual potential bid stealers are there realistically? It's any power conference team not in the field right now and the few mid major conferences with at large locks. Let's see if I can account for all of them. There's the 5 power conferences but realistically it is unlikely a losing record team win the SEC or Big Ten etc.

Then the main contenders are the Mountain West especially as, if Utah state doesn't win it they will likely get 2 bids unless they lose their next two games and NMU wins the MW. That is the most likely for sure.

Then there is the Atlantic 10 where SLU has to win. Hoping that VCU loses in their first game.

The MAC where Miami OH needs to complete their undefeated resume. Unless they lose the next two games they play they should be in for sure.

And then lastly the WCC. Hopefully Gonzaga or SMC win the conference which seems most likely given the seeding. It would be nice if SCU lost to their first matchup. Very unlikely for a lower seed to win this conference given the format since they play consecutive days but with no ability to even "steal" a higher seed's positioning with an upset since it tiers up.

Everyone else we don't have to worry about since they don't have any at large contenders so it will just be the winner who makes the tournament.

I think the most danger is in the MW where there are a lot of good teams but no great teams that will dominate. CSU could very easily win that conference. Hoping Utah State can hold on. I think it is likely SLU will win as they have been pretty dominant in A10 but who knows since IK they don't have much of an advantage as the number 1 seed other than opponent as they don't get an extra bye over the 4 seed and they play the earliest(not like that really matters but honestly why would they schedule their top seed to play at 11:30am).

Who's to say about the MAC. Miami prob wins especially if Akron loses before the championship game which could happen.

All in all seems like 4 possible realistically. My guess would be 0-1 I think MW is 50/50 and the rest favor the favorite pretty heavily. Same goes for the powers. Seems very unlikely a team like LSU wins the SEC especially since the power conferences have gladiators at the top that make it very hard to overcome.

Just thought people might wanna see what this really means and how many conf. we need to follow in these tourneys.

TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

Recent historical baseline:

AI Overview

Based on analyses of recent NCAA men's basketball tournaments, an average of
2 to 6 teams act as "bid stealers" (or "bid thieves") during championship week each year.

• Average Trend: While some reports suggest a lower, consistent average of around 2-3 per year, recent seasons have seen higher numbers, with an average of 5.5 teams stealing bids over the last 5 tournaments (ending in 2024).
• Recent Examples: The 2024 NCAA Tournament featured a high of five or six, with teams like NC State, Oregon, New Mexico, Duquesne, and UAB "stealing" spots.
• Definition: A bid stealer is a team that wins its conference tournament earning an automatic biddespite having a low ranking that would not have earned them an at-large bid, thereby reducing the number of spots available for bubble teams.
  

While 2024 was high-volume, analysts typically advise expecting 2-3, with the potential for more depending on upsets in mid-major conference tournaments.

Cal88 said:

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Recent historical baseline:

AI Overview

Based on analyses of recent NCAA men's basketball tournaments, an average of
2 to 6 teams act as "bid stealers" (or "bid thieves") during championship week each year.

• Average Trend: While some reports suggest a lower, consistent average of around 2-3 per year, recent seasons have seen higher numbers, with an average of 5.5 teams stealing bids over the last 5 tournaments (ending in 2024).
• Recent Examples: The 2024 NCAA Tournament featured a high of five or six, with teams like NC State, Oregon, New Mexico, Duquesne, and UAB "stealing" spots.
• Definition: A bid stealer is a team that wins its conference tournament earning an automatic biddespite having a low ranking that would not have earned them an at-large bid, thereby reducing the number of spots available for bubble teams.
  

While 2024 was high-volume, analysts typically advise expecting 2-3, with the potential for more depending on upsets in mid-major conference tournaments.

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Yeah I think it is very unlikely for there to be more than 2 stealers. This year is very top heavy with very dominant teams atop the major conferences. That makes the NC State type of team obv not impossible but highly unlikely as the teams below the bubble are worse and the teams at the top are better than 2024. If we take out power 4 which is around a combined 2.3 percent chance that a bid stealer wins a tourney, we are left with the big east and the mid majors.

The following conferences are projected to produce one NCAA Tournament team, regardless of what transpires in their league tournaments: American, America East, Atlantic Sun, Big West, Big Sky, Big South, CAA, Horizon, Ivy, Southland, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SoCon, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, Conference USA, WAC.

I think statistically it hovers around 1 right now if it was averaged out. But it is quite unlikely in Big East, WCC, and A10 produce a bid thief. There is an important distinction to be made also between the bid thief and the at large teams boosting their resume. Teams like Seton Hall or VCU or NMU (baring any losses before the tourney) wouldn't be bid stealers because they would very likely still make the tourney if they lost the championship game. SCU can't bid steal because if they made that game they would be in.

Things are also much different now than in 2024 because of the super conferences so there are less potential stealers scattered around the conferences since now it takes like the 11th or 12th best Big 12 school to win the whole bracket for them to steal.

Onebearofpower said:

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OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

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a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

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TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

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sounds like you agree wiht me. 2-4 bid steals is enough to move the Last Two/Four In to the First Two/Four Out. And with our loss to Pitt and weak non-con sched, we are still on the wrong side of Last In.

OC Bear said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

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a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

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TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

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sounds like you agree wiht me. 2-4 bid steals is enough to move the Last Two/Four In to the First Two/Four Out. And with our loss to Pitt and weak non-con sched, we are still on the wrong side of Last In.

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I think this is right. But there are teams like Cal in big conferences that will get lots of bids that can shake up the bubble. The Pitt loss was bad but there are teams in pretty similar spots as Cal that can move in or out based on the next couple of games.

So what Cal and all the at large bubble teams want is for Miami (OH) and St Louis to win their tourneys. Utah St to win the MWC and Gonzaga/St Marys to win the WCC. And it would be helpful for teams like Santa Clara, New Mexico, SDSU, VCU, Indiana, Auburn to lose their opening games.

OC Bear said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

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a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

---

TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

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sounds like you agree wiht me. 2-4 bid steals is enough to move the Last Two/Four In to the First Two/Four Out. And with our loss to Pitt and weak non-con sched, we are still on the wrong side of Last In.

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I agree with that because that's just how that works but I think it is very very statistically unlikely there will be 3 or 4 stealers. I think 0 is more likely than 2 as well.

Exactly

OC Bear said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

---

a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

---

TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

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sounds like you agree wiht me. 2-4 bid steals is enough to move the Last Two/Four In to the First Two/Four Out. And with our loss to Pitt and weak non-con sched, we are still on the wrong side of Last In.

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We need to beat Wake and then probably win at least two in the ACC Tournament.

6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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OC Bear said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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OC Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Texas lost, IU won by 30, OSU won.

SMU is on the bubble now, might be backing out of 8-9 ACCT seed if they lose to FSU this weekend.

If we win the next two, we should be in. A win at Wake would be a Q1 win, and give us a most respectable 5-4 Q1 record, 55.55%.

There are only 12 NCAA teams with a better Q1 win percentage than 55.5%.

---

a lot of unknowns. A couple of upsets in the mid-majors can allow them to steal an extra bid....and then the bubble IN morphs into bubble Out.

---

TLDR: MW, A10, MAC, WCC are the potential stealers. Root for the favorite in each game except in the case of other bubble teams losing.

---

sounds like you agree wiht me. 2-4 bid steals is enough to move the Last Two/Four In to the First Two/Four Out. And with our loss to Pitt and weak non-con sched, we are still on the wrong side of Last In.

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We need to beat Wake and then probably win at least two in the ACC Tournament.

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Well if Cal is in the 8/9 game advancing past the first game is a major longshot. Duke plays the winner of that game in front of a very likely partisan home crowd in Charlotte.

I think you may be right regarding your point, but let's beat Wake and win the first ACC tournament game and take another look. There is a lot of potential volatility among the bubble teams.

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Agreed, and that is why I said "probably." There is still a lot of basketball to be played around the country before Selection Sunday.

sycasey said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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MiZery said:

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We're beating neither Virginia nor Duke in the second round so it's a moot point

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It's unlikely but not impossible. We led Duke for like 35 percent of the game.

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Yeah, it's possible to just have a hot shooting day while Duke has a bad one. I wouldn't bet on it, but stranger things have happened.

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All the pressure in that situation would be on them. Problem is that they would be rested, I think we would play them next day if we win the 8/9 game.

Drake (14-19) 100 Belmont (26-6) 79

That's not good.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Drake (14-19) 100 Belmont (26-6) 79

That's not good.

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Have to think that MVC is a one bid conference no matter what.

RedlessWardrobe said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Drake (14-19) 100 Belmont (26-6) 79

That's not good.

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Have to think that MVC is a one bid conference no matter what.

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26-6 Belmont is ahead of us in the NET. It is a risk.

Cal88 said:

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0-0 in Q1!
5-2 Q2 meh
11-3 Q3, just lost to #202 Drake...

#54 for that??

The NET is a bit fruity.

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The NET is separate from the Quads. Every single game counts equally in the NET. Look at Ken Pom, Belmont is #66, we are #70
Not saying Belmont gets in, but their not winning their conference is a risk. They have 26 wins and an argument.

Yes, it is good that they added the Quads instead of only relying on NET, Ken Pom, Sagarin or other wholistic measures. It definitely helps us, we have some good wins to counter the rest of our schedule, but people should not think that the Quads are now the be all and end all.

CBS currently has us as the last team in, fwiw

I am sorry. Ohio and miami of ohio are not acc level talent. That 30 and 0 is a mirage

socaltownie said:

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I am sorry. Ohio and miami of ohio are not acc level talent. That 30 and 0 is a mirage

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Miami of Ohio has won last 3 games by 2 points each with today's game going to OT

My guess is they will lose in their tourney and steal a spot

socaltownie said:

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I am sorry. Ohio and miami of ohio are not acc level talent. That 30 and 0 is a mirage

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They aren't an elite team but going 31-0 is no joke no matter the schedule. Cincinnati is a good team and they lost to Eastern Michigan. I think they will win the MAC that team just knows how to win games. They 100 percent should be a lock in the tourney but who knows what the selection committee will do.

Cal88 said:

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Onebearofpower said:

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socaltownie said:

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I am sorry. Ohio and miami of ohio are not acc level talent. That 30 and 0 is a mirage

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They aren't an elite team but going 31-0 is no joke no matter the schedule. Cincinnati is a good team and they lost to Eastern Michigan. I think they will win the MAC that team just knows how to win games. They 100 percent should be a lock in the tourney but who knows what the selection committee will do.

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They will probably get an at large bid if they lose in their tourney, especially if it's against Akron (decent NET) in their final. Winning every single close game means they are well-coached, excellent closers, and a dangerous team in the tourney, potentially an exciting story, I bet the committee loves that angle.

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That suggests the opposite to me. They are going to get worked when they play their first team with a pulse.

The last team from their conference that had such a dominant record in the MAC was Kent St. in 2002, they went 17-1 in conference and ended up making it to the Elite 8.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001%E2%80%9302_Kent_State_Golden_Flashes_men%27s_basketball_team

Virginia is playing like Cal on a bad day, and it's driving me insane.

bearsandgiants said:

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Virginia is playing like Cal on a bad day, and it's driving me insane.

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Hoos finish strong and beat VT.

Furd leading midway in the first 22-17, interesting! We could be looking at a 4-way tie at 7th place/10-8 with Louisville, NCSt and FSU, if FSU, Miami and Furd all win. FS leading, Miami trialing.

If you'd told me after our first blowout game against Lville back in December that we could be tied with them when it's all said and done, I would have thought you're crazy...

GTech almost beat Clemson, lost by 3, makes out win look pretty respectable.