TedfordTheGreat said:
Charge in and force the refs to call fouls. We are the best FT shooting team and yet we keep settling
75bear said:
Margin for error is at its limit now.
ManBearLion123 said:75bear said:
Margin for error is at its limit now.
I think we're beyond that point unfortunately. There was very little room for error going into this game. The only game I think we could've afforded to lose (as long as we won an ACCT game) was @Wake.
Losing to Pitt at home is a horrible loss.
I really don't see a realistic path to the tourney anymore.
TedfordTheGreat said:ManBearLion123 said:75bear said:
Margin for error is at its limit now.
I think we're beyond that point unfortunately. There was very little room for error going into this game. The only game I think we could've afforded to lose (as long as we won an ACCT game) was @Wake.
Losing to Pitt at home is a horrible loss.
I really don't see a realistic path to the tourney anymore.
I do. Win 2 in the ACC tournament, hope we don't draw Duke somehow, but thats unlikely
win against SMU and Duke and we are in
blungld said:
So both women and men had it in their grasp...and blew it. Wow. Just wow. We are Cal.
normally we make some but it's been our offense all year. The failure to develop a post game is on madsen. It's abysmal.Golden One said:
Our offense today is just jacking up 3's and missing.
chazzed said:blungld said:
So both women and men had it in their grasp...and blew it. Wow. Just wow. We are Cal.
Being a Cal fan is as trying as it gets.
Johnfox said:
You were the same guy saying that didn't believe in Madsen. Just get 3 straight games and we'll see.
sycasey said:
Yeah I think it's over. Couldn't afford a bad loss and took the worst one.
ManBearLion123 said:Johnfox said:
You were the same guy saying that didn't believe in Madsen. Just get 3 straight games and we'll see.
There's a difference between making a long term projection of a coach and analyzing a team's path to the NCAA tournament over the last couple weeks of a season.
Madsen has done a great job this year (even in spite of today). I'd be thrilled if the program continues an upward trajectory.
I'm looking realistically at the path we have to the tourney. Unfortunately, that path realistically closed today.
sycasey said:
This game sucked, but Madsen is still delivering an improving program. No reason to think about firing him yet.
Johnfox said:
Yeah but you're saying this comment out of emotion. Once you come to your senses, you'll see that if Cal sweeps the road trip and goes to Charlotte and defeats SMU or (the 15 seed game + 7 seed game), Cal will have 7 Q1 wins. They will also boost their metrics and the WAB will significantly go up.
Sucks today but let's take a step back and calm down.
ducky23 said:Johnfox said:
Yeah but you're saying this comment out of emotion. Once you come to your senses, you'll see that if Cal sweeps the road trip and goes to Charlotte and defeats SMU or (the 15 seed game + 7 seed game), Cal will have 7 Q1 wins. They will also boost their metrics and the WAB will significantly go up.
Sucks today but let's take a step back and calm down.
I posted this on the premium board, but you are absolutely correct.
-///
So there have actually been studies on whether the committee cares more about bad losses or good wins, and the data clearly points to the committee caring much more about good wins.
One study found that a team's Quad 1 winning percentage was the single heaviest factor, accounting for roughly 24.5% of a team's selection "score." By contrast, a team's Quad 3 record, Quad 4 record, and total "bad losses" combined accounted for less than 3% of the overall weight.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/s/pGp2wVZCe2
Another study looked at the 2019 selection which showed that the bubble teams that snagged at-large bids despite having poor overall NET rankings (outside the top 50) averaged 4.3 Quad 1 wins. Meanwhile, the teams that had great overall metrics (top 50 NET) but were left out for the NIT averaged only 2.5 Quad 1 wins.
A committee is looking for teams that can make noise in the tournament and will forgive 1 bad loss.
So saying that you'd rather have a win over Pitt than a win over WF is not accurate if we're following what the committee has done in the past. A quad 1 win coupled with a quad 3 loss is better than a quad 3 win and a quad 1 loss.
23 wins was always the number. If we can get to 23 while stacking two more quad 1 wins then we're still absolutely in it. This just feels bad at the moment. But I promise you, if we win the next two and are playing in the ACC tourney against SMU, most bracketoligists will be saying that's a win and get in scenario.
Whether it was worth my time typing all this (cause the way we're playing, we ain't winning any more games) is another issue.
polarbear said:
Sorry folks but the NCAA tournament is realistically (although not mathematically) out of the question now for both the men and the women. But the men's team is definitely on the upswing and maybe next year getting to the tournament could be a realistic goal.
calumnus said:sycasey said:
This game sucked, but Madsen is still delivering an improving program. No reason to think about firing him yet.
Knowlton extended him to 2030. The program has no money to fire him. It makes more sense to support him with NIL and hope we get a better result than we got with Wilcox.
