Sorta at a Crossroad

1,754 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by socaltownie
socaltownie
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I think the main thing we have learned this year is that, come February and March, the Bears _PROGRAM_ is not ACC ready. What we know (or those that have watched BB in the past) is that as we wind toward March every conference NOT called the Pac12 would stop calling fouls. Yes, we had a Bizzaro game with the female ref who was HORRIBLE but most games over the past month have been called like today - not many fouls, lots of contact, let the boys play.

And when that happens the team that has more "physicality" and "athleticism" wins out.

And sadly, this is not rocket science, and so those players cost in the modern era $$$$$.

Really this is the question for the whales on the sideline and as well the AD because $$$ in fungible. What do you want? Because no amount of coaching and madsen bashing or running the old picket fence is going to solve a Wake Player essentially pushing off on drives with his off hand 12 times in a row (I counted) and moving our skinny unathletic players out of the way.

Now can the bears do well? Yes they can. I really believe in this staff. I think their approach makes a ton of sense and as well meets the eyeball test. But if the $$$$ is not there we better get right with the world that this is about peak....and that really I can count 4 more losses if teams didn't give up a 4 point play or suddenly stop making free throws.
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Big C
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1a. We are ACC-ready, we just went .500 in the damn conference.

1b. We are what our record says we are.

2. (this is as much if not more directed to another poster after that game as it is to you) I love all you supposedly enlightened people who have to mention that the ref was female. Would you mention it if the ref were Black? Surely you would not, which means maybe you still have some "work to do".
calumnus
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socaltownie said:

I think the main thing we have learned this year is that, come February and March, the Bears _PROGRAM_ is not ACC ready. What we know (or those that have watched BB in the past) is that as we wind toward March every conference NOT called the Pac12 would stop calling fouls. Yes, we had a Bizzaro game with the female ref who was HORRIBLE but most games over the past month have been called like today - not many fouls, lots of contact, let the boys play.

And when that happens the team that has more "physicality" and "athleticism" wins out.

And sadly, this is not rocket science, and so those players cost in the modern era $$$$$.

Really this is the question for the whales on the sideline and as well the AD because $$$ in fungible. What do you want? Because no amount of coaching and madsen bashing or running the old picket fence is going to solve a Wake Player essentially pushing off on drives with his off hand 12 times in a row (I counted) and moving our skinny unathletic players out of the way.

Now can the bears do well? Yes they can. I really believe in this staff. I think their approach makes a ton of sense and as well meets the eyeball test. But if the $$$$ is not there we better get right with the world that this is about peak....and that really I can count 4 more losses if teams didn't give up a 4 point play or suddenly stop making free throws.


Camden, Bell, Dort, Ilic, Dorsey, and Petraitis are all seniors. We will have a new front line next year, with a different mix of body types and talents.
BearlyCareAnymore
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socaltownie said:

I think the main thing we have learned this year is that, come February and March, the Bears _PROGRAM_ is not ACC ready. What we know (or those that have watched BB in the past) is that as we wind toward March every conference NOT called the Pac12 would stop calling fouls. Yes, we had a Bizzaro game with the female ref who was HORRIBLE but most games over the past month have been called like today - not many fouls, lots of contact, let the boys play.

And when that happens the team that has more "physicality" and "athleticism" wins out.

And sadly, this is not rocket science, and so those players cost in the modern era $$$$$.

Really this is the question for the whales on the sideline and as well the AD because $$$ in fungible. What do you want? Because no amount of coaching and madsen bashing or running the old picket fence is going to solve a Wake Player essentially pushing off on drives with his off hand 12 times in a row (I counted) and moving our skinny unathletic players out of the way.

Now can the bears do well? Yes they can. I really believe in this staff. I think their approach makes a ton of sense and as well meets the eyeball test. But if the $$$$ is not there we better get right with the world that this is about peak....and that really I can count 4 more losses if teams didn't give up a 4 point play or suddenly stop making free throws.


I think the first crossroads is Cal has to actually keep some of its players. So we'll see. It can't be a total rebuild every year.


In terms of recruiting rankings, our teams under Madsen have been pretty consistent. We have not really improved. I did think this year had a better makeup and higher basketball IQ coming in, maybe giving up some on physical ability, especially compared to the first year. I think what you've seen the first three years is kind of the range we will stay in if we can't keep some quality players from one year to the next.
6956bear
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socaltownie said:

I think the main thing we have learned this year is that, come February and March, the Bears _PROGRAM_ is not ACC ready. What we know (or those that have watched BB in the past) is that as we wind toward March every conference NOT called the Pac12 would stop calling fouls. Yes, we had a Bizzaro game with the female ref who was HORRIBLE but most games over the past month have been called like today - not many fouls, lots of contact, let the boys play.

And when that happens the team that has more "physicality" and "athleticism" wins out.

And sadly, this is not rocket science, and so those players cost in the modern era $$$$$.

Really this is the question for the whales on the sideline and as well the AD because $$$ in fungible. What do you want? Because no amount of coaching and madsen bashing or running the old picket fence is going to solve a Wake Player essentially pushing off on drives with his off hand 12 times in a row (I counted) and moving our skinny unathletic players out of the way.

Now can the bears do well? Yes they can. I really believe in this staff. I think their approach makes a ton of sense and as well meets the eyeball test. But if the $$$$ is not there we better get right with the world that this is about peak....and that really I can count 4 more losses if teams didn't give up a 4 point play or suddenly stop making free throws.

There it is. This is accurate. You want to win it is going to cost money. The better players are going to get paid. Here or somewhere else.

This era of college sports is not about program building the way it was once done. It is about building a roster every year that can compete.

This is not rocket science. It is annual free agency. if you want to win you need players. Better players than they have now. And they do cost money.

Madsen is a good guy. The staff treats the players well. He has a system of play that players like. But do they have the resources to attract enough talent to win.

The team they lost to last night was transfer laden. Wiggins from Clemson. McCray from Jacksonville. Magee from Drexel. Lajae Jones from St Bonaventure. Steen from Florida Southern. And old. The above 5 players are all seniors. You can no longer afford to build. You need to add players that can win now.

That team took a bit to gel. They started rough. But they had the requisite size and athletcism and experience and took apart our Bears last night. Next year FSU will rebuild again. For most teams that is how it will be.

If you want to win it takes money. Every year. I hope Cal has the NIL budget to keep the few guys they want to keep. For me that is Pippen, Ames and Dort. And perhaps Yeanay. Maybe Carr. The balance of the roster should be new. A combination of transfer and HS players. The HS players must be able to contribute from day 1. The idea of building around young players and watching them develop are over. There will be exceptions but the majority of contributing players will be new most years.

If they do not have the financial resources (NIL) then this season was likely the ceiling. I have no idea where they stand in terms of actual NIL for the next season. But if you want to win it has to be substantial. I think it is better than previous years but not sure it jumps enough to make a real difference. And keeping the big 3 of Ames, Pippen and Dort could use a significant portion.

Most of the recruiting done now is with NIL. I heard Jim Boeheim talk about this just these past few days as we saw his friend Adrian Autry get fired at Syracuse and Damon Stoudamire at GaTech and Earl Grant at BC. these 3 according to him were among the lowest NIL budgets in the league. He made note of the fact that Virginia and NC State who were bad a year ago invested in NIL. With new coaches and new rosters. Both are still playing in the ACC tourney and will hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

It takes a commitment to win. Not just in effort from the staff, but in financial resources from donors and a real give a damn from the administration. They have done that in football. Things are really looking up there. But hoops is not there.

If Cal hoops is to prosper it will take a big lift from the donors. It just will. Until then this was about as good a season as one can reasonably expect.
RedlessWardrobe
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Big C said:

1a. We are ACC-ready, we just went .500 in the damn conference.

1b. We are what our record says we are.

2. (this is as much if not more directed to another poster after that game as it is to you) I love all you supposedly enlightened people who have to mention that the ref was female. Would you mention it if the ref were Black? Surely you would not, which means maybe you still have some "work to do".

On behalf of SoCal, when he says we are not ACC-ready, he is referring to the fact that if we want to achieve any amount of true success in the ACC, we need to put a team out there that can compete athletically and physically with the other teams in the conference. Anyone watching our conference games this year could see that we continually lacked athleticism. The games we won were almost all correlated to our 3 point shooting ability, and that is something that can only take you so far. And honestly, our record does not say who we are, based on our OOC schedule.
As far as SoCal's referee description, you know it could have been used as an easy way to describe the ref he was referring to - that is possible. And BTW, she really was horrible.
bearfan93
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calumnus said:

socaltownie said:

I think the main thing we have learned this year is that, come February and March, the Bears _PROGRAM_ is not ACC ready. What we know (or those that have watched BB in the past) is that as we wind toward March every conference NOT called the Pac12 would stop calling fouls. Yes, we had a Bizzaro game with the female ref who was HORRIBLE but most games over the past month have been called like today - not many fouls, lots of contact, let the boys play.

And when that happens the team that has more "physicality" and "athleticism" wins out.

And sadly, this is not rocket science, and so those players cost in the modern era $$$$$.

Really this is the question for the whales on the sideline and as well the AD because $$$ in fungible. What do you want? Because no amount of coaching and madsen bashing or running the old picket fence is going to solve a Wake Player essentially pushing off on drives with his off hand 12 times in a row (I counted) and moving our skinny unathletic players out of the way.

Now can the bears do well? Yes they can. I really believe in this staff. I think their approach makes a ton of sense and as well meets the eyeball test. But if the $$$$ is not there we better get right with the world that this is about peak....and that really I can count 4 more losses if teams didn't give up a 4 point play or suddenly stop making free throws.


Camden, Bell, Dort, Ilic, Dorsey, and Petraitis are all seniors. We will have a new front line next year, with a different mix of body types and talents.

Do we have any word on Petraitis? He made a post on his ig about a medical redshirt. I think he was a big loss and was the emotional/vocal leader of the team. I think we would have played better down the stretch with him. He did a lot of the little things that we really missed.

Will miss Dort. His development was fun to watch and he did improve a lot during his time here.

The other players were here for a year and I appreciate their contributions to Cal basketball. I hope we can build some continuity going forward.

Go Bears!
Big C
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RedlessWardrobe said:

Big C said:

1a. We are ACC-ready, we just went .500 in the damn conference.

1b. We are what our record says we are.

2. (this is as much if not more directed to another poster after that game as it is to you) I love all you supposedly enlightened people who have to mention that the ref was female. Would you mention it if the ref were Black? Surely you would not, which means maybe you still have some "work to do".

On behalf of SoCal, when he says we are not ACC-ready, he is referring to the fact that if we want to achieve any amount of true success in the ACC, we need to put a team out there that can compete athletically and physically with the other teams in the conference. Anyone watching our conference games this year could see that we continually lacked athleticism. The games we won were almost all correlated to our 3 point shooting ability, and that is something that can only take you so far. And honestly, our record does not say who we are, based on our OOC schedule.
As far as SoCal's referee description, you know it could have been used as an easy way to describe the ref he was referring to - that is possible. And BTW, she really was horrible.

All of that may be true, Red, but when I made my previous post, it was still the-day-of-the-game and I was feeling combative.

gradually coming to my senses this morning
BeachedBear
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RedlessWardrobe said:

As far as SoCal's referee description, you know it could have been used as an easy way to describe the ref he was referring to - that is possible. And BTW, she really was horrible.

As we all know, women have an extra bone in their foot. Not only does this give them a distinct advantage in sprints, but it also impacts their eyesight and prevents them from making the right calls as officials.

Not their fault - simple factual biology!


/sarcasm/
socaltownie
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BeachedBear said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

As far as SoCal's referee description, you know it could have been used as an easy way to describe the ref he was referring to - that is possible. And BTW, she really was horrible.

As we all know, women have an extra bone in their foot. Not only does this give them a distinct advantage in sprints, but it also impacts their eyesight and prevents them from making the right calls as officials.

Not their fault - simple factual biology!


/sarcasm/

BTW - I referred to her as the Female ref because the ACC announcers very RARELY identify who is working the game and the ESPN box scores often don't either. I would have ignored her gender if I could....I guess I will in the future say "The ref that was shorter than the others with the long blonde hair in a pony tail."
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socaltownie
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Big C said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

Big C said:

1a. We are ACC-ready, we just went .500 in the damn conference.

1b. We are what our record says we are.

2. (this is as much if not more directed to another poster after that game as it is to you) I love all you supposedly enlightened people who have to mention that the ref was female. Would you mention it if the ref were Black? Surely you would not, which means maybe you still have some "work to do".

On behalf of SoCal, when he says we are not ACC-ready, he is referring to the fact that if we want to achieve any amount of true success in the ACC, we need to put a team out there that can compete athletically and physically with the other teams in the conference. Anyone watching our conference games this year could see that we continually lacked athleticism. The games we won were almost all correlated to our 3 point shooting ability, and that is something that can only take you so far. And honestly, our record does not say who we are, based on our OOC schedule.
As far as SoCal's referee description, you know it could have been used as an easy way to describe the ref he was referring to - that is possible. And BTW, she really was horrible.

All of that may be true, Red, but when I made my previous post, it was still the-day-of-the-game and I was feeling combative.

gradually coming to my senses this morning

We all were pissed off yesterday. All is understandable and good.

I think getting to .500 in this conference is a great accomplishment. Madsen did a great job and I noted that in numerous posts. I like this team and the players seem like great young men. Kudos to them.

But the ACC is just SO MUCH MORE athletic than the Pac12. Maybe not at the tippy top - but it is like having 6 or 7 zona's under Lute rather than 1 and a sorta 2 during good Oregon years. And I can see why this is at a premium - the league ate the whistles as the season went on.

If I have time (and am bored) I am going to plot fouls called against other teams as the season went on. I am guessing a nice downward sloping line with an outlier or 2.

Now what is impossible for my sports analytic skills to compute is how much this is what I THINK it is (lots and lots of contact being ignored) and how much good (but not rocket science game planning) - hit Cal with a match up zone. Why that? Because a match up zone allows you to get guys on most of the wing shooters but also make driving hard. Cal LOVED the FT line. It was an outright offensive strategy to draw contact and get to the line. But if teams are making it harder for you to drive....and when you DO drive no one is calling fouls....you lose 3 of your last 4.

Telling if you were watching ALL the games (I did this year) was how many times in the last month Bell and Pippen would get HAMMERED and get up looking like "***". It wasn't just standard working of the refs....they legit were (and looked) shocked that calls they got at the start of conference.

And I am slightly bitter (but a lone voice). There are reasons why I think Cal should be like Duke. Put up a competitive football team but go ALL IN on Hoop. It is a better fit for the East Bay. It actually works with the ACC. It doesn't have the huge overhang of CTE risks that could really blow up the entire sport. But of course that ship has long since sailed. But I still want us to be $$$ competitive or be honest with people and say "it is what it is".


Take care of your Chicken
sycasey
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I feel like there are two issues at play here:

1. Donors may not be as willing to fund basketball as they are football, just in general.

2. Madsen really had to dig the program out of a deep hole and we are only just now seeing daylight.

It's frustrating to get close to the tournament and lose winnable games, but to even be close is a huge and unexpected improvement, given where we were. Hopefully that leads to more support for basketball, even if it's not a huge flood right away. It's hard to blame people for being apathetic about Cal hoops after what happened under Wyking and Fox.
socaltownie
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sycasey said:

I feel like there are two issues at play here:

1. Donors may not be as willing to fund basketball as they are football, just in general.

2. Madsen really had to dig the program out of a deep hole and we are only just now seeing daylight.

It's frustrating to get close to the tournament and lose winnable games, but to even be close is a huge and unexpected improvement, given where we were. Hopefully that leads to more support for basketball, even if it's not a huge flood right away. It's hard to blame people for being apathetic about Cal hoops after what happened under Wyking and Fox.

#1 ? Absolutely. SB has said that explicitly. My confusion is really why. Cal had like 4 years under Tedford that were better than 'meh". It can be deeply frustrating and arguably in Holmoe and Sonny year 1 we had teams just as bad or not worse as Fox/Jones. The Bay area I guess is sorta a football town but it also has a great hoops tradition and, if you look at home grown players, as good or better than any FB that call the bay area their hometown.

Now FB is king of modern TV sports. The NFL far outdraws NBA. So it may be little more complicated that FB has more fans than BB. But I know PERSONALLY I like BB better

"Less boring stoppages of play"
"Cinderellas are a thing in March"
"You can actually see the players faces and connect with them"
"You can see more of the sport unwind on TV than the panned out view that makes it hard to focus (on the line play) where actually football is won or lost. Indeed, TV gives a very disorted view of what matters because it is easier to focus on the skill positions.

Credit where credit is due. The NFL simply has been one of the greatest machines known to man in creating interest in their sport. Helps they have worked really hard to maintain competitive balance so that it is attractive to gambling - which I honestly think is a critical driver of interest.
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RedlessWardrobe
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socaltownie said:

sycasey said:

I feel like there are two issues at play here:

1. Donors may not be as willing to fund basketball as they are football, just in general.

2. Madsen really had to dig the program out of a deep hole and we are only just now seeing daylight.

It's frustrating to get close to the tournament and lose winnable games, but to even be close is a huge and unexpected improvement, given where we were. Hopefully that leads to more support for basketball, even if it's not a huge flood right away. It's hard to blame people for being apathetic about Cal hoops after what happened under Wyking and Fox.

#1 ? Absolutely. SB has said that explicitly. My confusion is really why. Cal had like 4 years under Tedford that were better than 'meh". It can be deeply frustrating and arguably in Holmoe and Sonny year 1 we had teams just as bad or not worse as Fox/Jones. The Bay area I guess is sorta a football town but it also has a great hoops tradition and, if you look at home grown players, as good or better than any FB that call the bay area their hometown.

Now FB is king of modern TV sports. The NFL far outdraws NBA. So it may be little more complicated that FB has more fans than BB. But I know PERSONALLY I like BB better

"Less boring stoppages of play"
"Cinderellas are a thing in March"
"You can actually see the players faces and connect with them"
"You can see more of the sport unwind on TV than the panned out view that makes it hard to focus (on the line play) where actually football is won or lost. Indeed, TV gives a very disorted view of what matters because it is easier to focus on the skill positions.

Credit where credit is due. The NFL simply has been one of the greatest machines known to man in creating interest in their sport. Helps they have worked really hard to maintain competitive balance so that it is attractive to gambling - which I honestly think is a critical driver of interest.

A lot of good points. Just had to throw in that the "boring stoppage of play" has become just as bad in basketball as football when it comes to the at game experience. Even worse now with the drawn out (and sometimes ridiculous) reviews . It has become a real downer.
concernedparent
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Madsen did a hell of a job this year but I think this is our peak without serious donor investment.

We bought low on all of these players that ended up being really good. If we pay Ames like a 3rd team ACC guy, Pippen like a very promising PG entering his peak, Dort as a solid athletic clean-up big, etc. what does that leave us for the rest of team?
JimSox
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calumnus said:



Camden, Bell, Dort, Ilic, Dorsey, and Petraitis are all seniors. We will have a new front line next year, with a different mix of body types and talents.


I think Dort and maybe Petraitis have another year. If the money and the willingness are there.
calumnus
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socaltownie said:

sycasey said:

I feel like there are two issues at play here:

1. Donors may not be as willing to fund basketball as they are football, just in general.

2. Madsen really had to dig the program out of a deep hole and we are only just now seeing daylight.

It's frustrating to get close to the tournament and lose winnable games, but to even be close is a huge and unexpected improvement, given where we were. Hopefully that leads to more support for basketball, even if it's not a huge flood right away. It's hard to blame people for being apathetic about Cal hoops after what happened under Wyking and Fox.

#1 ? Absolutely. SB has said that explicitly. My confusion is really why. Cal had like 4 years under Tedford that were better than 'meh". It can be deeply frustrating and arguably in Holmoe and Sonny year 1 we had teams just as bad or not worse as Fox/Jones. The Bay area I guess is sorta a football town but it also has a great hoops tradition and, if you look at home grown players, as good or better than any FB that call the bay area their hometown.

Now FB is king of modern TV sports. The NFL far outdraws NBA. So it may be little more complicated that FB has more fans than BB. But I know PERSONALLY I like BB better

"Less boring stoppages of play"
"Cinderellas are a thing in March"
"You can actually see the players faces and connect with them"
"You can see more of the sport unwind on TV than the panned out view that makes it hard to focus (on the line play) where actually football is won or lost. Indeed, TV gives a very disorted view of what matters because it is easier to focus on the skill positions.

Credit where credit is due. The NFL simply has been one of the greatest machines known to man in creating interest in their sport. Helps they have worked really hard to maintain competitive balance so that it is attractive to gambling - which I honestly think is a critical driver of interest.


Football is what drives the revenues in college sports. It is what determines whether we remain in a P4 conference. Our revenues from the ACC (95% from football?) will eventually grow to a full $40 million share right around the time people are expecting the next phase of realignment. After 9 years of losing twice as many conference games as we win under Wilcox and nearly getting relegated, it makes sense to prioritize football to make sure our program survives the next round. The question is whether a marginal amount could be directed to basketball to make an impact there?

Cal and Stanford are currently mid-ACC teams. By comparison look at Oregon State and Washington States' seasons in the WCC. The ACC is a good spot though the travel is a hardship. I asked in another thread if $2 million more in NIL would move the needle ? It is probably not enough to generate the same revenue. Thus, we need an alum or alums who just really like basketball to embrace the opportunity to take ownership of the program. It might even be an advantage not having a GM as the donor could work directly with Madsen in building the team. JMO.

socaltownie
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calumnus said:

socaltownie said:

sycasey said:

I feel like there are two issues at play here:

1. Donors may not be as willing to fund basketball as they are football, just in general.

2. Madsen really had to dig the program out of a deep hole and we are only just now seeing daylight.

It's frustrating to get close to the tournament and lose winnable games, but to even be close is a huge and unexpected improvement, given where we were. Hopefully that leads to more support for basketball, even if it's not a huge flood right away. It's hard to blame people for being apathetic about Cal hoops after what happened under Wyking and Fox.

#1 ? Absolutely. SB has said that explicitly. My confusion is really why. Cal had like 4 years under Tedford that were better than 'meh". It can be deeply frustrating and arguably in Holmoe and Sonny year 1 we had teams just as bad or not worse as Fox/Jones. The Bay area I guess is sorta a football town but it also has a great hoops tradition and, if you look at home grown players, as good or better than any FB that call the bay area their hometown.

Now FB is king of modern TV sports. The NFL far outdraws NBA. So it may be little more complicated that FB has more fans than BB. But I know PERSONALLY I like BB better

"Less boring stoppages of play"
"Cinderellas are a thing in March"
"You can actually see the players faces and connect with them"
"You can see more of the sport unwind on TV than the panned out view that makes it hard to focus (on the line play) where actually football is won or lost. Indeed, TV gives a very disorted view of what matters because it is easier to focus on the skill positions.

Credit where credit is due. The NFL simply has been one of the greatest machines known to man in creating interest in their sport. Helps they have worked really hard to maintain competitive balance so that it is attractive to gambling - which I honestly think is a critical driver of interest.


Football is what drives the revenues in college sports. It is what determines whether we remain in a P4 conference. Our revenues from the ACC (95% from football?) will eventually grow to a full $40 million share right around the time people are expecting the next phase of realignment. After 9 years of losing twice as many conference games as we win under Wilcox and nearly getting relegated, it makes sense to prioritize football to make sure our program survives the next round. The question is whether a marginal amount could be directed to basketball to make an impact there?

Cal and Stanford are currently mid-ACC teams. By comparison look at Oregon State and Washington States' seasons in the WCC. The ACC is a good spot though the travel is a hardship. I asked in another thread if $2 million more in NIL would move the needle ? It is probably not enough to generate the same revenue. Thus, we need an alum or alums who just really like basketball to embrace the opportunity to take ownership of the program. It might even be an advantage not having a GM as the donor could work directly with Madsen in building the team. JMO.



I get that is the core of the argument but let me ask your crystal ball this (which is my point)

Will Duke, Kansas and lets say North Carolina Get Relegated?

If you answer no then football success is not the only poathway. If you DO think they are relegated then what happens to the tournament?

And no - I am NOT arguing that Cal is Kansas, North Carolina or Duke but near as I can tell they are not cross subsidizing their mammoth NIL base in Hoop to xsubsidize football.
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