I think the only answer to this is "we don't know." A core tenant of #teamdropdown is that Cal in such a conference would be an 8000 lb gorilla. If you look at UCSD both before it moved up to d1 and even today its recruiting in a ton of sports leverages its dramatic difference in academic quality and selectivity as a recruiting edge.
Now I get why this distance is hard for people but Cal doesn't have THAT much of an edge in P4. Yes. Better. But institutons like UCLA, Michigan, Duke, NC, Texas, etc. etc. are not BAD truck school institutions. They are in the same ballpark if not a 4 hole hitter.
But in a different conference Cal gets a LOT of the benefits of ICA (alumni coming to campus, student engagement) without some of the baggage (P4 football costs, ESPN TV gods determining game time and wagging the dog for THEIR benefit). What it loses is "relevance" and then the ability to use P4 Football rights to I guess subsidize P4 olympic sports. It also (and I recognize this is critical) avoids imposing upon students P4 student fees like MANY other institutions do (including all UCs other than UCSC & UCLA).
The current MM saga again drives for me this point home. What other P4 that cares has a 2 headed monster as AD and dicks around with chump change for a coach who just won 21 games? The answer is NO OTHER SCHOOL. But because Cal is not serious (and arguably doesn't need to be) it plays this ridiculously cynical game - where it tells fans it DOES care and demands to "compete for championships" but really doesn't when compared to the actions of their peers.
If we do not retain MM I am so out till August. It just isn't worth it.
PS. It also makes cal a ****TY employer and that also pisses me off where it asks coaches to do impossible things with the resources it provides. I get why a guy like Dykes (and I am not defending his overall record or approach) gets pissed. Ditto Martin. If you are providing "meh" level of support be ok with "meh" results. Don't ***** about not getting into the CFP.
Take care of your Chicken