Lets debate SEIU's billionaire wealth tax ;-)

560 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by dajo9
socaltownie
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My take?

1) The amount of harm here is minimal. Most bilionaires just can't spend enough on high productivity goods to matter if they leave. I mean so the aggregate demand for gardners and ferrari mechanics decreased slightly but consumption of lux goods just doesn't have a great multiplier.

2) Under late capitalism does it matter. Consider SpaceX. Yes, Elon long ago left the state. But if we assume that spaceX's value comes from talent and that talent is in California does it matter where HE lives? Moreover, since he is running a bunch of different companies and is comfortable with being remote it matters even less

3) Taxing wealth is hard. Like really hard. I am not sure how you even value private equity positions since you can not mark to market. Feels like the permanent employment act for auditors and accountants and lawyers fighting them.

4) Ultimately if you really want to go after the .00001 I am not sure why you don't simply raise property taxes on residential property (need a definition that works in CA's prop tax code) valued greater than X. Lets say 20 million to start with. Easier to find. Your county assessors are trained to do this work. Harder to avoid.

Will not raise the hypothetical amounts thrown around by SEIU but will raise more in reality.

Course I still think an inheritance tax (or closing loop holes in existing) is the right way to go.


PS. Can someone for the love of god try to defend how Theil abused the IRA system to shelter hundreds of millions (billions)? That to me just pisses me off because it is such a blatent abuse and gives what should be a solid saving mechanism for the average american a bad name. Probably also makes it hard to measure how well (or not) we are saving for retirement since most data reports out mean rather than median
Take care of your Chicken
bearister
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Not only are you never going to get the billionaire class (Musk will be a trillionaire soon enough) to pay their fair share, they are going to use their fortunes to beef up their private space programs to leave our serf @$$es behind on a dying planet as they trail blaze in the final frontier.


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“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
dajo9
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I dont think a billionaire tax works at the state level. It should really be negotiated internationally.

I like the idea of higher property taxes above, say $10 million.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
Aunburdened
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dajo9 said:

I dont think a billionaire tax works at the state level. It should really be negotiated internationally.

I like the idea of higher property taxes above, say $10 million.

The best way to get at billionaire excess wealth is to tax their investments and their property. International is unrealistic, but needs to be national at minimum.

Of course, the billionaires run the legislature so this will never happen.
concordtom
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Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.
concordtom
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A link to explaining what it is is helpful

https://www.seiu-uhw.org/ca-billionaire-tax-act/


Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW)
is a healthcare justice union of more than 120,000 healthcare workers, patients, and healthcare consumers united to ensure affordable, accessible, high-quality care for all Californians, provided by valued and respected healthcare workers.
Anarchistbear
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A billionaire can borrow against his assets have no income and no tax. Income taxes are for workers not billionaires. The Supreme Court will probably peer into the minds of Hamilton and Jefferson and declare a wealth tax unconstitutional. I don't see anything happening here as both political parties depend on status quo for their wealth
concordtom
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Anarchistbear said:

A billionaire can borrow against his assets have no income and no tax. Income taxes are for workers not billionaires. The Supreme Court will probably peer into the minds of Hamilton and Jefferson and declare a wealth tax unconstitutional. I don't see anything happening here as both political parties depend on status quo for their wealth

Agree.
Dollars buys messaging buys votes.
The two parties don't want a third party and don't want ranked choice voting either.
Citizens United means big donors get to continue buying their politicians.
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.

I think the State tax will be ineffective, and hurt CA's economy. I'm not sure it is legal. it is pretty clear from the standpoint of successful people this is the only the beginning with CA dramatically increasing spending despite having huge deficits. There will be more of these taxes and down to lower income or wealth levels. With a State this fiscally irresponsible, and funding political donor causes, such as the trains to nowhere, and not willing to adequately fund more basic government functions like education, there will be more initiatives to pay for these functions, and a declining tax base to pay them from. That is because when wealthy people do leave the State to become tax refugees, they take their business with them over time. First is the higher paid employees as the top level as headquarters move, but ultimately is the core business as well. What Musk did is being repeated. Just look where Spielberg will be doing his work in the future. It no longer is a blue verses red. The biggest beneficiaries of the tax are developers in Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc. and if I was Blue Herron and Four Seasons (residential division), I would be secretly pumping money to support these initiatives. Whey you are in real estate, you can see the trends before the media. As an example, the high end development in Henderson is exploding. There is a long waiting list of Washington tax refugees to get in on the Four Seasons Residences. Both capital and people go where it is best, based on financial decisions, not rhetoric.

As for a wealth tax at the federal level, this has been litigated here for some time. It is not going to happen politically. If the wealth tax did become law, it will found to be unconstitutional, and the process for an amendment likely will be decades. The alternative is increasing income tax rates, but the economically illiterate don't seem to understand that the super-wealthy generally have arranged their affairs to have little taxable income.

If you want to tax wealth in this country, you need to tax assets such as property, toys (e,g., yachts), etc. which typically is done on a state level. I suspect that people sorta shrugged at Dajo's post, but if you understand taxes, that probably is the most effective way to tax the wealthy.

If you look at tax policies they are based on income taxes, and they are designed to achieve political objectives, like incentives to provide for electric cars. That all goes to crap when you impose these broad overall taxes. Newsom probably says this a lot better than me, but the approach on this poorly drafted CA tax proposal is counter-productive. That also is another discussion.

I also question if demonizing and going after successful people will be in the long run good for the country's overall success. But that also is a different discussion.

I'm not sure much debating on this subject is productive. People here have their own views based on rhetoric and narrative, without a much understanding of the economic impacts of taxation.

socaltownie
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.

I think the State tax will be ineffective, and hurt CA's economy. I'm not sure it is legal. it is pretty clear from the standpoint of successful people this is the only the beginning with CA dramatically increasing spending despite having huge deficits. There will be more of these taxes and down to lower income or wealth levels. With a State this fiscally irresponsible, and funding political donor causes, such as the trains to nowhere, and not willing to adequately fund more basic government functions like education, there will be more initiatives to pay for these functions, and a declining tax base to pay them from. That is because when wealthy people do leave the State to become tax refugees, they take their business with them over time. First is the higher paid employees as the top level as headquarters move, but ultimately is the core business as well. What Musk did is being repeated. Just look where Spielberg will be doing his work in the future. It no longer is a blue verses red. The biggest beneficiaries of the tax are developers in Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc. and if I was Blue Herron and Four Seasons (residential division), I would be secretly pumping money to support these initiatives. Whey you are in real estate, you can see the trends before the media. As an example, the high end development in Henderson is exploding. There is a long waiting list of Washington tax refugees to get in on the Four Seasons Residences. Both capital and people go where it is best, based on financial decisions, not rhetoric.

As for a wealth tax at the federal level, this has been litigated here for some time. It is not going to happen politically. If the wealth tax did become law, it will found to be unconstitutional, and the process for an amendment likely will be decades. The alternative is increasing income tax rates, but the economically illiterate don't seem to understand that the super-wealthy generally have arranged their affairs to have little taxable income.

If you want to tax wealth in this country, you need to tax assets such as property, toys (e,g., yachts), etc. which typically is done on a state level. I suspect that people sorta shrugged at Dajo's post, but if you understand taxes, that probably is the most effective way to tax the wealthy.

If you look at tax policies they are based on income taxes, and they are designed to achieve political objectives, like incentives to provide for electric cars. That all goes to crap when you impose these broad overall taxes. Newsom probably says this a lot better than me, but the approach on this poorly drafted CA tax proposal is counter-productive. That also is another discussion.

I also question if demonizing and going after successful people will be in the long run good for the country's overall success. But that also is a different discussion.

I'm not sure much debating on this subject is productive. People here have their own views based on rhetoric and narrative, without a much understanding of the economic impacts of taxation.



But I think the harder argument here is that "rich people take their businesses with them.":

I think this is old thinking. _IF_ we believe (I do) that talent is king in the modern economy businesses will invest where talent is. For a variety of reasons (QOL, universities, stickiness of internal migration) talent is in California. Try convincing a well paid software engineer to take a buy out and move to Central Florida or the Valley of the Sun. Remote work makes this even MORE challenging - fun fact (which I had to pull for work) fully 1/4 of the Carlsbad CA workforce works 3 or more days remote and a full 10% of the workforce have companies that file state unemployment taxes at zip codes outside of a 100 mile radius of CB.

So what I think happens is..(if it passes) - a whole bunch of youngish billionaires leave. Corporate HQs likely follow but they already have been following because your controller has to suffer orlando. But the bulk of talent remains. Older billionaires that are "stuck" (for the reasons that old people are stuck) remain.

I also think that there will be a bunch of lawyers that make bank because assigning value to assets is hard. Really hard. Much as I hate carried interest philosophically I get that it is hard to value assets during an estate event in any other way. As I said, the thing I would tax is real estate - because while you can hide the value of your arts or options it is pretty easy to figure out what the value of a trophy property is in La Jolla or Mailbu and tax that at, for example, 3% rather than prop 13 1%. I have always thought THAT was the split roll you could pass.
Take care of your Chicken
DiabloWags
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The Top 1% of wage earners (>$905,000) in California pay 40% of the state's income taxes.

California's tax system is highly progressive, taxing capital gains and high wages (over $1 million) at high rates.

Clearly, a stock market downturn reduces revenue, as seen with the $40 billion deficit following the 2022 market drop.

And yet the state still keeps spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave.

God forbid if there's ever a real Bear Market that lasts longer than just a few months.



BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:


And yet the state still keeps spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave.





And yet yall still keep voting in democrats to run the state
wifeisafurd
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socaltownie said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.

I think the State tax will be ineffective, and hurt CA's economy. I'm not sure it is legal. it is pretty clear from the standpoint of successful people this is the only the beginning with CA dramatically increasing spending despite having huge deficits. There will be more of these taxes and down to lower income or wealth levels. With a State this fiscally irresponsible, and funding political donor causes, such as the trains to nowhere, and not willing to adequately fund more basic government functions like education, there will be more initiatives to pay for these functions, and a declining tax base to pay them from. That is because when wealthy people do leave the State to become tax refugees, they take their business with them over time. First is the higher paid employees as the top level as headquarters move, but ultimately is the core business as well. What Musk did is being repeated. Just look where Spielberg will be doing his work in the future. It no longer is a blue verses red. The biggest beneficiaries of the tax are developers in Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc. and if I was Blue Herron and Four Seasons (residential division), I would be secretly pumping money to support these initiatives. Whey you are in real estate, you can see the trends before the media. As an example, the high end development in Henderson is exploding. There is a long waiting list of Washington tax refugees to get in on the Four Seasons Residences. Both capital and people go where it is best, based on financial decisions, not rhetoric.

As for a wealth tax at the federal level, this has been litigated here for some time. It is not going to happen politically. If the wealth tax did become law, it will found to be unconstitutional, and the process for an amendment likely will be decades. The alternative is increasing income tax rates, but the economically illiterate don't seem to understand that the super-wealthy generally have arranged their affairs to have little taxable income.

If you want to tax wealth in this country, you need to tax assets such as property, toys (e,g., yachts), etc. which typically is done on a state level. I suspect that people sorta shrugged at Dajo's post, but if you understand taxes, that probably is the most effective way to tax the wealthy.

If you look at tax policies they are based on income taxes, and they are designed to achieve political objectives, like incentives to provide for electric cars. That all goes to crap when you impose these broad overall taxes. Newsom probably says this a lot better than me, but the approach on this poorly drafted CA tax proposal is counter-productive. That also is another discussion.

I also question if demonizing and going after successful people will be in the long run good for the country's overall success. But that also is a different discussion.

I'm not sure much debating on this subject is productive. People here have their own views based on rhetoric and narrative, without a much understanding of the economic impacts of taxation.




I also think that there will be a bunch of lawyers that make bank because assigning value to assets is hard. Really hard. Much as I hate carried interest philosophically I get that it is hard to value assets during an estate event in any other way. As I said, the thing I would tax is real estate - because while you can hide the value of your arts or options it is pretty easy to figure out what the value of a trophy property is in La Jolla or Mailbu and tax that at, for example, 3% rather than prop 13 1%. I have always thought THAT was the split roll you could pass.

I going to address the portable business issue, which is btw Newsome's main public objection to the tax measure, when I have time.

I generally agree with your paragraph above, but let me add further:

The problems with the proposed measure are too long to lay out properly, but here goes a brief overview.

The exact operation of the Billionaire Tax is impossible to fathom. It turns on subsequent regulations, guidance, and litigation outcomes.

The measure is patently unconstitutional as to taxing assets included in net worth (as opposed to CA resident income) outside CA jurisdiction. The proposition, as written violates many CA statues or other CA passed ballot propositions. The measure says it would function in addition to, not as a replacement for, existing tax rules. A court would likely have to take a tortured look as to how to make that work. The measure may be subject to other constitutional challenges, including whether the magnitude of the one-time wealth-based charge could be characterized as a confiscatory tax under state or federal constitutional standards. I don't believe this SCOTUS is going to allow it. In a first, the Measure actually recognizes possible defects (this could get a judges attention) and that there may be court challenges and authorizes regulations and guidance to help fix the Measure. This is a rather novel concept to admit your act is defective, and then say bureaucrats can change your defective legislation without going back to the voters. I think even lawyer partisans like Bearister might see some issues.

Then do you really want to be an entrepreneur in CA because if you get stuck in success with a bunch of illiquid stock and have no way to pay 5% of that value, you're going to bankrupt your own company to pay the tax? Or you can take on a vague deferred, non-deductible payment penalty. The answer is leave the State really quick.

You have to be a tax resident on December 31, 2026. Applying the tax based on residency on a single date invites disputes about domicile and timing. Residency is not hard to change for billionaires, or even just the ultra-rich, as opposed to "working class" millionaires, who have to work for someone, and can't change their lives so easily. Even tougher, CA allows partial tax year returns and resident status, where you can make the decision to become a non-resident, and become a non-resident for the back part of the year (you file both a resident and non-resident returns for the transition calendar year).

Determining fair value for large, illiquid assets will be complex and burdensome, and mean long litigation. My read is the tax is imposed on revocable trusts, not irrevocable trusts. Anyone see a huge loophole?

This proposition is likely to win, will be in litigation for years, IMO will not survive the legal process, and if it does, will be a severe disappointment to the measure's proponents given how badly the legislation is drafted.
concordtom
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.

I think the State tax will be ineffective, and hurt CA's economy. I'm not sure it is legal. it is pretty clear from the standpoint of successful people this is the only the beginning with CA dramatically increasing spending despite having huge deficits. There will be more of these taxes and down to lower income or wealth levels. With a State this fiscally irresponsible, and funding political donor causes, such as the trains to nowhere, and not willing to adequately fund more basic government functions like education, there will be more initiatives to pay for these functions, and a declining tax base to pay them from. That is because when wealthy people do leave the State to become tax refugees, they take their business with them over time. First is the higher paid employees as the top level as headquarters move, but ultimately is the core business as well. What Musk did is being repeated. Just look where Spielberg will be doing his work in the future. It no longer is a blue verses red. The biggest beneficiaries of the tax are developers in Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc. and if I was Blue Herron and Four Seasons (residential division), I would be secretly pumping money to support these initiatives. Whey you are in real estate, you can see the trends before the media. As an example, the high end development in Henderson is exploding. There is a long waiting list of Washington tax refugees to get in on the Four Seasons Residences. Both capital and people go where it is best, based on financial decisions, not rhetoric.

As for a wealth tax at the federal level, this has been litigated here for some time. It is not going to happen politically. If the wealth tax did become law, it will found to be unconstitutional, and the process for an amendment likely will be decades. The alternative is increasing income tax rates, but the economically illiterate don't seem to understand that the super-wealthy generally have arranged their affairs to have little taxable income.

If you want to tax wealth in this country, you need to tax assets such as property, toys (e,g., yachts), etc. which typically is done on a state level. I suspect that people sorta shrugged at Dajo's post, but if you understand taxes, that probably is the most effective way to tax the wealthy.

If you look at tax policies they are based on income taxes, and they are designed to achieve political objectives, like incentives to provide for electric cars. That all goes to crap when you impose these broad overall taxes. Newsom probably says this a lot better than me, but the approach on this poorly drafted CA tax proposal is counter-productive. That also is another discussion.

I also question if demonizing and going after successful people will be in the long run good for the country's overall success. But that also is a different discussion.

I'm not sure much debating on this subject is productive. People here have their own views based on rhetoric and narrative, without a much understanding of the economic impacts of taxation.



Thx for your words.
I AM actually interested.
Each time we discuss this you tell me why it wouldn't work and such. And that's all fine.
But I'm asking your opinion on wealth aggregating in the hands of "the successful" as you phrased it.

I'm all for people becoming super rich. (I come from the self made super rich myself.) I'm concerned that this is not a great development for society. As you often point out, it's easy to hide income and keep growing wealth - so long as one pays attention and is not a spendthrift.

But what are the consequences, nationally? Culturally? Economically?

I want to know if you think we should just let natural forces continue, laizze-faire, or if we actively say no to that and actually want to curb natural forces wealth concentration.

I know you'll say, "we already have intervention in that, via the IRS "
But concentration is increasing. Do you care? At which level should the ideal social engineer step in?






I think this is the type of graph I'm interested in. At what % should the various wealth deciles, say, be drawn?
Or, better asked, corralled?
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

Ask Wife his opinion on reining in excess with disparities.

I think the State tax will be ineffective, and hurt CA's economy. I'm not sure it is legal. it is pretty clear from the standpoint of successful people this is the only the beginning with CA dramatically increasing spending despite having huge deficits. There will be more of these taxes and down to lower income or wealth levels. With a State this fiscally irresponsible, and funding political donor causes, such as the trains to nowhere, and not willing to adequately fund more basic government functions like education, there will be more initiatives to pay for these functions, and a declining tax base to pay them from. That is because when wealthy people do leave the State to become tax refugees, they take their business with them over time. First is the higher paid employees as the top level as headquarters move, but ultimately is the core business as well. What Musk did is being repeated. Just look where Spielberg will be doing his work in the future. It no longer is a blue verses red. The biggest beneficiaries of the tax are developers in Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc. and if I was Blue Herron and Four Seasons (residential division), I would be secretly pumping money to support these initiatives. Whey you are in real estate, you can see the trends before the media. As an example, the high end development in Henderson is exploding. There is a long waiting list of Washington tax refugees to get in on the Four Seasons Residences. Both capital and people go where it is best, based on financial decisions, not rhetoric.

As for a wealth tax at the federal level, this has been litigated here for some time. It is not going to happen politically. If the wealth tax did become law, it will found to be unconstitutional, and the process for an amendment likely will be decades. The alternative is increasing income tax rates, but the economically illiterate don't seem to understand that the super-wealthy generally have arranged their affairs to have little taxable income.

If you want to tax wealth in this country, you need to tax assets such as property, toys (e,g., yachts), etc. which typically is done on a state level. I suspect that people sorta shrugged at Dajo's post, but if you understand taxes, that probably is the most effective way to tax the wealthy.

If you look at tax policies they are based on income taxes, and they are designed to achieve political objectives, like incentives to provide for electric cars. That all goes to crap when you impose these broad overall taxes. Newsom probably says this a lot better than me, but the approach on this poorly drafted CA tax proposal is counter-productive. That also is another discussion.

I also question if demonizing and going after successful people will be in the long run good for the country's overall success. But that also is a different discussion.

I'm not sure much debating on this subject is productive. People here have their own views based on rhetoric and narrative, without a much understanding of the economic impacts of taxation.



Thx for your words.
I AM actually interested.
Each time we discuss this you tell me why it wouldn't work and such. And that's all fine.
But I'm asking your opinion on wealth aggregating in the hands of "the successful" as you phrased it.

I'm all for people becoming super rich. (I come from the self made super rich myself.) I'm concerned that this is not a great development for society. As you often point out, it's easy to hide income and keep growing wealth - so long as one pays attention and is not a spendthrift.

But what are the consequences, nationally? Culturally? Economically?

I want to know if you think we should just let natural forces continue, laizze-faire, or if we actively say no to that and actually want to curb natural forces wealth concentration.

I know you'll say, "we already have intervention in that, via the IRS "
But concentration is increasing. Do you care? At which level should the ideal social engineer step in?






I think this is the type of graph I'm interested in. At what % should the various wealth deciles, say, be drawn?
Or, better asked, corralled?


You talking to me? I don't control things.


There is a lot of garbage numbers and economists with an agenda. This may come as a shock, but wealth is concentrated far less right now that other times in the country, and yet here we are all fat and happy, arguing about theoretical matters.

I guess having worked for governments and seen them in action, I don't think they automatically know what they are doing to be interfering whole heartedly in regulating the market beyond the basics of keeping people honest or health and safety regulation. I also agree with the role of the FED. I would point to the present administration in DC as a prime example of not knowing.

Unlike most here, I don't view wealth concentration as inherently evil. It can often reflects successful entrepreneurship, innovation, and value creation within a market economy and made the greater good better, and at the risk of backing evil tech types, I would say that is somewhat accurate today. However, at some point long term concentration can significantly harm economic growth, reduce social mobility, and wealth always distorts the democratic process. Don't ask me things like percentages, I don't know. So far a capitalistic approach has been a long term success in this country and so I lean for less intervention.


dajo9
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The straw man is alive and well. Star this post if you think wealth concentration is inherently evil. I certainly don't.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
wifeisafurd
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dajo9 said:

The straw man is alive and well. Star this post if you think wealth concentration is inherently evil. I certainly don't.

This will boomerang on me, but you have a MBA and you are not who I'm talking about. And I predict you will get a lot of stars. The billionaire class would be better served acting like adults (see Buffet and Gates) and not like some other guys who come off differently. The latter gruop really engenders hate in people and allows class warfare to dictate policy views.
dajo9
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wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

The straw man is alive and well. Star this post if you think wealth concentration is inherently evil. I certainly don't.

This will boomerang on me, but you have a MBA and you are not who I'm talking about. And I predict you will get a lot of stars. The billionaire class would be better served acting like adults (see Buffet and Gates) and not like some other guys who come off differently. The latter gruop really engenders hate in people and allows class warfare to dictate policy views.


I dont think anyone other than you is going to star that post.

Every billionaire is a policy failure. The "evil" tagline is a fiction from those who support wealth inequality.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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