Campbell!

Bears win!!!

UOP wasn't a pushover but Cal played just well enough

Onwards!!!

Phew!

We didn't have our best stuff today, and still managed to find a way to win. This is what good teams do.

Bears don't cover.

Tooooooooo Close

Yep a win is a win.

Top 100 net ranking win. Will take it

Too sloppy at the end but thankfully the defense saved it.

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

Brutal FT shooting in this one (especially considering that's a strength of this team)

Glad it didn't cost us a W

(And this win should actually give us a slight bump in NET given UoP was ~75th NET going into this one)

Also, Campbell should not be getting 26 minutes while Bell gets 22 and Carr gets 10

blungld said:

---

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

---

I've heard they're hoping beginning of ACC play. They really do need him back.

A W by any other name is still a W

I will take any W's we can get…. Any place, any time

It sure is more fun than some recent past years

Go Bears!!!!

ManBearLion123 said:

---

Brutal FT shooting in this one (especially considering that's a strength of this team)

---

Not that many turnovers but most of them were really ugly.

Campbell can be effective in short bursts.

We can start using him more surgically once Petratis comes back and Dorsey gets healthy.

blungld said:

---

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

---

Pacific looks like the 2nd toughest opponent before conference play, Columbia being pretty decent with an RPI of 76:

• DEC 6 SAT
  
Pacific(6-3)RPI: 90

Berkeley, CAHaas Pavilion

W 67 - 61

• DEC 9 TUE
  Non Div I
  Dominican (CA)
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  10:00 PM
• DEC 13 SAT
  
Northwestern State(0-7)RPI: 350

Berkeley, CA Haas Pavilion

• DEC 19 FRI
  
  Morgan State
  (0-7)RPI: 365
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  
• DEC 21 SUN
  
  Columbia
  (8-1)RPI: 76
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  

standings - theacc https://theacc.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

Hey, it's preseason but it sure beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Cal88 said:

---

blungld said:

---

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

---

Pacific looks like the 2nd toughest opponent before conference play, Columbia being pretty decent with an RPI of 76:

• DEC 6 SAT
  
Pacific(6-3)RPI: 90Berkeley, CAHaas PavilionTV: ACC ExtraW 67 - 61
• DEC 9 TUE
  Non Div I
  Dominican (CA)
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  10:00 PM
• DEC 13 SAT
  
Northwestern State(0-7)RPI: 350 Berkeley, CAHaas Pavilion
• DEC 19 FRI
  
  Morgan State
  (0-7)RPI: 365
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  
• DEC 21 SUN
  
  Columbia
  (8-1)RPI: 76
  Berkeley, CA
  Haas Pavilion
  

---

Our net ranking may actually go down after the next three games (Dominican isn't even D1).

Which is why beating pacific was very necessary

Okay, so Pacific is actually pretty good?

MoragaBear said:

---

ManBearLion123 said:

---

Also, Campbell should not be getting 26 minutes while Bell gets 22 and Carr gets 10

---

Especially with that atrocious ft shooting

---

UOPs free throw defense is impressive. I'd like to get their coaching video of how they do it.

blungld said:

---

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

---

12-1, not 14-1, but who's counting… the silver lining here is that if one of us said we'd go 12-1 preseason a couple months ago, it'd be considered a longshot and most people would laugh it off.
The beginning of the ACC schedule, including the powerhouse Cardinals, will really set the tone. No one expects us to beat Louisville, but if we can at least stay within striking distance of Louisville and the two Virginias, then take care of business against Notre Dame, it will be a statement to the ACC that we're a team to be reckoned with.

barsad said:

---

blungld said:

---

We have a chance of being 14-1 going into Louisville. When will Ryan be back?

---

12-1, not 14-1, but who's counting… the silver lining here is that if one of us said we'd go 12-1 preseason a couple months ago, it'd be considered a longshot and most people would laugh it off.
The beginning of the ACC schedule, including the powerhouse Cardinals, will really set the tone. No one expects us to beat Louisville, but if we can at least stay within striking distance of Louisville and the two Virginias, then take care of business against Notre Dame, it will be a statement to the ACC that we're a team to be reckoned with.

---

Definitely-- especially if we can escape the 6 game stretch where we play 4 ranked opponents (Louisville, UVA, Duke, UNC), the back half of the schedule lightens up quite a bit (at least relative to what you can expect for the ACC). I can't believe I'm saying this, but I see us as a bubble tourney team right now!!! This is so exciting, cmon Bears keep it up!!

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 27-7 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

&ct=g

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

---

If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

---

If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

---

Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

---

If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

---

Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

---

21-10 teams can make it if their schedule seems strong enough. Not sure I'd rule that out.

That said, I think Cal is probably not quite good enough to make it this year. Just arguing the hypothetical.

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

---

If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

---

Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

---

21-10 teams can make it if their schedule seems strong enough. Not sure I'd rule that out.

That said, I think Cal is probably not quite good enough to make it this year. Just arguing the hypothetical.

---

And if they are North Carolina or Alabama in football.

Our strength of schedule is pretty much determined at this point. Based on our current #72 KenPom, according to the OP we should go 23-8 (11-7). If we do that we should still be around #72 in Ken Pom. And there will still be a bunch of ACC teams above us. We would be a bubble team, but likely out. If we are going to get into the Tournament we probably need the above wins PLUS a big upset win.

Bottom line is 21-10 (9-9) is not going to get Cal into the NCAA Tournament this year. NIT would not be a horrible result though, given we have had 8 losing seasons in a row. However, let's hope for better.

calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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barsad said:

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I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

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Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

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A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

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I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

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If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

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Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

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21-10 teams can make it if their schedule seems strong enough. Not sure I'd rule that out.

That said, I think Cal is probably not quite good enough to make it this year. Just arguing the hypothetical.

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And if they are North Carolina or Alabama in football.

Our strength of schedule is pretty much determined at this point. Based on our current #72 KenPom, according to the OP we should go 23-8 (11-7). If we do that we should still be around #72 in Ken Pom. And there will still be a bunch of ACC teams above us. We would be a bubble team, but likely out. If we are going to get into the Tournament we probably need the above wins PLUS a big upset win.

Bottom line is 21-10 (9-9) is not going to get Cal into the NCAA Tournament this year. NIT would not be a horrible result though, given we have had 8 losing seasons in a row. However, let's hope for better.

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I think 21 wins might be enough to get us in, depending on what those wins are. If it includes one or two top-end wins and no bad losses, I think it would give us a decent shot at the tourney. The ACC is very good this year.

calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

barsad said:

---

I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

---

Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

---

A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

---

I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

---

If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

---

Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

---

21-10 teams can make it if their schedule seems strong enough. Not sure I'd rule that out.

That said, I think Cal is probably not quite good enough to make it this year. Just arguing the hypothetical.

---

And if they are North Carolina or Alabama in football.

Our strength of schedule is pretty much determined at this point. Based on our current #72 KenPom, according to the OP we should go 23-8 (11-7). If we do that we should still be around #72 in Ken Pom. And there will still be a bunch of ACC teams above us. We would be a bubble team, but likely out. If we are going to get into the Tournament we probably need the above wins PLUS a big upset win.

Bottom line is 21-10 (9-9) is not going to get Cal into the NCAA Tournament this year. NIT would not be a horrible result though, given we have had 8 losing seasons in a row. However, let's hope for better.

---

Also, if we go 23-8 (11-7), we will almost certainly NOT still be around #72 on KenPom, but much higher given the quality of the ACC.

There are certain elements such as margin of victory, whether the game is home or away, etc. factored into KenPom. But winning 11 in a very good ACC would almost surely make us a lock for the tourney.

Also, looking at another metric that the committee uses when selecting teams, Cal currently sits at #56 in NET. That is very solid. If we move up just a little bit in NET during ACC play, that'll put us in a good spot.