ManBearLion123 said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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barsad said:

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I agree, a bubble berth is in reach… based only on KenPom rankings and assuming we go 12-1 in noncon and can beat any team No. 62 or higher (we are 72), here's how I see a path to the Dance. The KenPom list works out to an 11-7 conference record, 23-8 overall. Even if we drop 4 "should-have-won" games, 19-12 with a good showing in the ACC tourney could be enough.

Dec 30
vs Louisville
L

Jan 2
vs Notre Dame
W

Jan. 7
at Virginia
L

Jan 10
at Virginia Tech
W

Jan 14
vs Duke
L

Jan 17
vs North Carolina
Listen
L

Jan 24
at Stanford
W

Jan 28
at Florida State
W

Jan. 31
at Miami
L

Feb 4
vs Georgia Tech
W

Feb 7
vs Clemson
L
ACCN

Feb 11
at Syracuse
W

Feb 14
at Boston College
W

Feb 21
vs Stanford
W

Feb 25
vs SMU
L

Feb 28
vs Pitt
W

Mar 4
at Georgia Tech
W

Mar 7
at Wake Forest
W

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Losing just two of those "should have won" games puts us at 21-10 (9-9) with a lower Ken Pom rating and maybe as many as 7 or 8 teams above us in the ACC standings.

Not to burst anyone's bubble but I doubt we jump ACC teams that we lost to head to head and finished above us in the standings just because we cruised through an easy OOC schedule.

Hear are the ACC Standings and Tournament invites last year:
1. Duke 35-4 (19-1) IN
2. Clemsen 27-7 (18-2) IN
3. Louisville 277 (18-2) IN
4. SMU 24-11 (13-7) OUT
5. Wake Forest 21-11 (13-7) OUT
6. North Carolina 23-14 (13-7) IN
7. Stanford 21-14 (11-9) OUT

SMU, Wake and Stanford are cautionary tales because we are not North Carolina. We don't get in because of our name.

So right now, winning the games we should win and getting to 23+ wins (11-7) is bubble, and could be out like SMU last year. We need to improve to be definitely in. Losing some thst we "should win" probably bursts our bubble, but NIT would not be a horrible result in that case.

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A lot of this depends on the strength of the conference. ACC was seen as a bit down last year, right? It's looking up this year, which means more teams would get in.

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I think a lot comes down to NET or whatever rating system they are using. North Carolina was #31 in Ken Pom but SMU was #50, Wake was #72 and Stanford was #81 which explains why they were left out. Cal is currently at #72 with 11 ACC teams ahead of us. We need to beat at least a few of those teams and move into the #40 territory.

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If 11 teams are ahead of us and we're at 72, then that tells me the conference is stronger and that getting wins in conference will help a lot. Would also indicate that more than four ACC teams will be getting in this time, which was my point. A stronger conference means you can finish further down the standings and still make it.

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Yes, and those wins will be reflected in our ratings. If more ACC teams finish in the Top 40, we will get more teams in. The problem is once we enter the conference schedule, it is a zero sum game, the conference as a whole will not get "better."

So more ACC teams may get in this time, but at 21-10 (9-9) we are not going to one of them. 23-8 (11-7) we have a shot, especially if we win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.

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21-10 teams can make it if their schedule seems strong enough. Not sure I'd rule that out.

That said, I think Cal is probably not quite good enough to make it this year. Just arguing the hypothetical.

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And if they are North Carolina or Alabama in football.

Our strength of schedule is pretty much determined at this point. Based on our current #72 KenPom, according to the OP we should go 23-8 (11-7). If we do that we should still be around #72 in Ken Pom. And there will still be a bunch of ACC teams above us. We would be a bubble team, but likely out. If we are going to get into the Tournament we probably need the above wins PLUS a big upset win.

Bottom line is 21-10 (9-9) is not going to get Cal into the NCAA Tournament this year. NIT would not be a horrible result though, given we have had 8 losing seasons in a row. However, let's hope for better.

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Also, if we go 23-8 (11-7), we will almost certainly NOT still be around #72 on KenPom, but much higher given the quality of the ACC.

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