NCAA projections

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Cal88
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GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).
socaltownie
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Cal88 said:

GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).


Called it. It ia an easier football conference. Maybe by a lot and especially with cal playing hard mode and getting usc every year. But it is a far superior hoop conference. I would argue best in the country though b12 blue bloods this year are uber
calumnus
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socaltownie said:

Cal88 said:

GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).


Called it. It ia an easier football conference. Maybe by a lot and especially with cal playing hard mode and getting usc every year. But it is a far superior hoop conference. I would argue best in the country though b12 blue bloods this year are uber


The ACC was really a great landing spot considering the horrible spot Christ and Knowlton left us in with their mishandling of football and basketball and especially their mishandling of the situation after USC and UCLA announced their departures.

I think the B-12 and B1G (maybe even the SEC) are arguably stronger in basketball, but the ACC is legendary, especially for those of us of a certain age. Filled with historically great programs. Better to be playing "name" schools we can beat. My UCLA friends are jealous.

Now that it looks like we are at least middle of the conference and competitive we should be selling out Haas regularly given the great BART access and parking options. If we are not packed for these next 5 home games (Georgia Tech, #20 Clemson, Stanford, SMU, Pitt) it will be a huge fail by marketing.

And the ACC offers a great path to the CFP as Miami demonstrated this year. Glad that we added UCLA OOC.

HoopDreams
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Duke and UNC are the bluest of blue bloods

B1G has Michigan and maybe Michigan State and various teams who have had major runs but have fallen back (e.g. Indiana)

B12 now has AZ and KU

SEC has a bunch of top teams but none of the deepest blue bloods (guess that's SEC money since they have traditionally been a FB conference)
socaltownie
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HoopDreams said:

Duke and UNC are the bluest of blue bloods

B1G has Michigan and maybe Michigan State and various teams who have had major runs but have fallen back (e.g. Indiana)

B12 now has AZ and KU

SEC has a bunch of top teams but none of the deepest blue bloods (guess that's SEC money since they have traditionally been a FB conference)


Generally agree but kentucky in the sec would like a word
Civil Bear
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Cal88 said:

GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).

Yes, sweeping at home is essential to making the tourney. Something I didn't think I would be saying this year.
calumnus
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HoopDreams said:

Duke and UNC are the bluest of blue bloods

B1G has Michigan and maybe Michigan State and various teams who have had major runs but have fallen back (e.g. Indiana)

B12 now has AZ and KU

SEC has a bunch of top teams but none of the deepest blue bloods (guess that's SEC money since they have traditionally been a FB conference)


According to Ken Pom:
B12 with 3 teams in the Top 10 including #1 Arizona
B1G with 4 teams in the Top 10
ACC with only Duke in the Top 10
https://kenpom.com/
Looking through that ranking there are a lot of teams that you don't often think as "blubloods" of that are really good, teams like Iowa State and BYU. That is why I am saying being in the ACC is so great: Good marquee opponents whose history and reputation may exceed their current reality and that we have a chance at beating with no "embarrassing" loss opportunities.
RedlessWardrobe
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calumnus said:

socaltownie said:

Cal88 said:

GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).


Called it. It ia an easier football conference. Maybe by a lot and especially with cal playing hard mode and getting usc every year. But it is a far superior hoop conference. I would argue best in the country though b12 blue bloods this year are uber


The ACC was really a great landing spot considering the horrible spot Christ and Knowlton left us in with their mishandling of football and basketball and especially their mishandling of the situation after USC and UCLA announced their departures.

I think the B-12 and B1G (maybe even the SEC) are arguably stronger in basketball, but the ACC is legendary, especially for those of us of a certain age. Filled with historically great programs. Better to be playing "name" schools we can beat. My UCLA friends are jealous.

Now that it looks like we are at least middle of the conference and competitive we should be selling out Haas regularly given the great BART access and parking options. If we are not packed for these next 5 home games (Georgia Tech, #20 Clemson, Stanford, SMU, Pitt) it will be a huge fail by marketing.

And the ACC offers a great path to the CFP as Miami demonstrated this year. Glad that we added UCLA OOC.



I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this will not even be close to happening. (However, I'll be there.)
Cal88
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Clemson and Furd should have decent crowds.

Hopefully the AD will provide some incentives for students to come out (low/free tx prices)?
Johnfox
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Agreed. There's no reason if you're a student to not show up to the game. Cal is 16-6 with march madness in clear sight.

Clemson is a 5pm tip on a Saturday. Just perfect for everyone.
BeachedBear
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Johnfox said:

Agreed. There's no reason if you're a student to not show up to the game. Cal is 16-6 with march madness in clear sight.

Clemson is a 5pm tip on a Saturday. Just perfect for everyone.

That would be a fun clip - interview 20 students NOT at the game and get their reasons. It might help some of the old blues that remember the 80s.


Flashback to BeachedBear mid 80s, waiting overnight outside Harmon with Mike Silver in line for MBB. Silver asking others why are you here tonight? Most answers were along the lines of:

"What else is there to do"

"Our dorm/frat/coop party was lame, so we moved it here"

"I heard there was pizza"

"St Elsewhere is not on tonight, so...."

"Someone said we have finally have a decent MBB team"
Golden One
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RedlessWardrobe said:

calumnus said:

socaltownie said:

Cal88 said:

GT did beat NCSt, which is a pretty good team (7-2 in the ACC).

I watched the Cuse @UNC game last night, UNC led by as much as 30 in the middle of the 2nd half, but Cuse still looked pretty good in stretches, with some ballers like Freeman. I could see them giving us all we can handle and more if we have an off night.

Bottom line, this is a tough league in hoops, can't have a drop off in intensity. Hopefully Madsen will have the team ready and more fans and students will show up and bring the noise.

If we can get over the hump and sweep both home games this week, we're squarely in on most brackets, and will be favored in nearly all remaining 7 games (SMU at home being the one tossup).


Called it. It ia an easier football conference. Maybe by a lot and especially with cal playing hard mode and getting usc every year. But it is a far superior hoop conference. I would argue best in the country though b12 blue bloods this year are uber


The ACC was really a great landing spot considering the horrible spot Christ and Knowlton left us in with their mishandling of football and basketball and especially their mishandling of the situation after USC and UCLA announced their departures.

I think the B-12 and B1G (maybe even the SEC) are arguably stronger in basketball, but the ACC is legendary, especially for those of us of a certain age. Filled with historically great programs. Better to be playing "name" schools we can beat. My UCLA friends are jealous.

Now that it looks like we are at least middle of the conference and competitive we should be selling out Haas regularly given the great BART access and parking options. If we are not packed for these next 5 home games (Georgia Tech, #20 Clemson, Stanford, SMU, Pitt) it will be a huge fail by marketing.

And the ACC offers a great path to the CFP as Miami demonstrated this year. Glad that we added UCLA OOC.



I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this will not even be close to happening. (However, I'll be there.)

You're right, unfortunately, but I'll be there also.
sycasey
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Don't look now, but the latest Bracket Matrix update has Cal as the last team in the tournament.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Eastern Oregon Bear
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sycasey said:

Don't look now, but the latest Bracket Matrix update has Cal as the last team in the tournament.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
If we have to be sent to a play in game, I'll take it. I hope we get matched up with Miami. No, not that Miami, the one in Ohio.
sycasey
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

sycasey said:

Don't look now, but the latest Bracket Matrix update has Cal as the last team in the tournament.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

If we have to be sent to a play in game, I'll take it. I hope we get matched up with Miami. No, not that Miami, the one in Ohio.

If they win the MAC, they can't be in the play-in. Only at-large picks go in the play-in.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

sycasey said:

Don't look now, but the latest Bracket Matrix update has Cal as the last team in the tournament.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

If we have to be sent to a play in game, I'll take it. I hope we get matched up with Miami. No, not that Miami, the one in Ohio.


Miami (OH) is 20-0, and ranked higher than the Miami of Coral Gables.
ManBearLion123
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Cal88 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

sycasey said:

Don't look now, but the latest Bracket Matrix update has Cal as the last team in the tournament.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

If we have to be sent to a play in game, I'll take it. I hope we get matched up with Miami. No, not that Miami, the one in Ohio.


Miami (OH) is 20-0, and ranked higher than the Miami of Coral Gables.

Miami (OH) is not ranked above Miami (FL) in any advanced metric rankings (such as KenPom or BartTorvik). They have a perfect record and they are a very solid team, but they've played nobody this season. They don't have a single Q1 win this year.
MiZery
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Sounds like a team that could be this years Cinderella
Cal88
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If you want to compare apples to apples, Miami (OH) is 3-0 vs Q2, 4-0 vs Q2, while the U is 3-1 and 4-1 respectively vs Q1 and Q2.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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I stand corrected about Miami OH. I didn't know they were 23-0. I didn't even know there were any undefeated teams left. I'll withdraw my preference for an opponent as all the other 11 seeds (Miami FL, New Mexico, Texas, Ohio State and Miami OH) look as strong or stronger than Cal. Cal is a little higher than Miami OH in the Net Rankings (51 vs 53) and much higher at KenPom (54 vs 89) but ranked and 23-0 is not something to be discounted.
sycasey
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Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.
MiZery
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I want no part of playing an undefeated Miami Ohio team in the play in game.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.
calumnus
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).
sycasey
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calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).

Right, Miami Ohio has no one as tough as UCLA on the schedule, to say nothing of the ACC schedule we are playing right now.
Cal88
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calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.
OdontoBear66
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Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...
sycasey
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OdontoBear66 said:

Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...

To be fair, that 363 out of 365 is just the non-conference SOS. Their overall SOS is at 329 (per KenPom).

By comparison, he has Cal's overall SOS at 82, even with a non-con SOS at 327. The ACC schedule matters a lot.
Cal88
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OdontoBear66 said:

Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...


I was looking specifically at the fact that they fared better against the better teams they've faced (7-0 vs Q2 and Q3 opposition) than 17 out of 18 ACC teams fared against similar competition (Q2 and Q3).
ManBearLion123
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Cal88 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...


I was looking specifically at the fact that they fared better against the better teams they've faced (7-0 vs Q2 and Q3 opposition) than 17 out of 18 ACC teams fared against similar competition (Q2 and Q3).

Not all Q2/Q3 teams are equal. For example, Bowling Green on the road was a Q2 win for Miami (OH). Would you say that'd be as impressive a win as Clemson at home? Because they'd both simply show up as Q2 games if you were just looking at those records.

Cal88
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ManBearLion123 said:

Cal88 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...


I was looking specifically at the fact that they fared better against the better teams they've faced (7-0 vs Q2 and Q3 opposition) than 17 out of 18 ACC teams fared against similar competition (Q2 and Q3).

Not all Q2/Q3 teams are equal. For example, Bowling Green on the road was a Q2 win for Miami (OH). Would you say that'd be as impressive a win as Clemson at home? Because they'd both simply show up as Q2 games if you were just looking at those records.



Clemson is Q1, not Q2.

Miami beat Akron, currently ranked just above us on the NET, so near the top of Q2. Bowling Green from the MAC is in the neighborhood of Oregon, Utah, UCSD, UCSB and Kent St further down the MAC Q2 list is still above Georgia Tech.

Miami (FL) lost to Q3 team FSU, #99 NET, and Q2 team Cal. Miami (OH) is undefeated, 7-0 vs 3 Q2s and 4 Q3s, while Miami (FL) is 6-2 vs combined Q2 and Q3.

My original case was that based on the records above, and the propensity of Miami (OH) to consistently win out close games, they look like the more dangerous opponent of the two Miamis.
ManBearLion123
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal88 said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Cal88 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

Cal88 said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Obviously Miami Ohio is having a great year, but it's true that they haven't played anyone. They have had zero games against power-conference teams. Their non-conference schedule was all cupcakes, not even any tough mid-majors. They also haven't exactly been blowing out the MAC schedule, a bunch of their recent wins are by 2 points or in OT.

That's why they are still behind Cal in KenPom despite the undefeated record.


They currently have the longest winning streak in the 80-year history of the MAC. The previous record was held by the 2002 Kent State team that ended up getting to the Elite 8.

They did win several close and OT games, but this also indicates that they are a clutch team and good closers, a great quality that is going to make them a dangerous opponent in the Tournament.

As I've mentioned above, they fared better than Miami (FL) vs quad 2 and quad 3 teams, 7-0, vs 6-2 for the ACC Miami team.

Again, great job with the winning streak as that is certainly not easy, but the best team they've played is Akron. The games they've won against Quad 2 are near the bottom of Quad 2 (except Akron). The recent run of close games also indicates that they've been a bit lucky to not have dropped a game yet.

Great season and great story, but there's a reason the advanced metrics don't rate them that highly.


Sometimes in the case of such outliers as 23-0 Miami(OH), the advanced metrics aren't as reliable as the eyeball test. Being lucky 23 times in a row is no longer a matter of luck.

I didn't say they were lucky 23 times in a row. They are clearly good. But they've also had the benefit of an easy schedule and a bit of luck in close games.

That said, I will walk back one claim about their non-conference schedule: it was still loaded with cupcakes mostly, but they did play Wright State who are 1st place in the Horizon League, so that is one tough mid-major. They also have a game against Marshall coming up, which has the highest NET ranking in the Sun Belt. So a couple of decent opponents there.


According to Ken Pom, Miami of Ohio's OOC schedule was #363 of 365. Ours was #324, so slightly tougher (we played UCLA and Kansas State).


Miami was one of only 19 teams in the NCAA to have managed to sweep all their Q2 and Q3 opponents. It's a feat that only 1 ACC team out of 18 has managed to do, Duke.


For the purpose of forensics only. Do you not see schedule at #363 out of #365? That means a fair amount to me. Acknowledge them as doing very well, and easily capable of beating us in a game, but the 23-0 is but one thing that is looked at...


I was looking specifically at the fact that they fared better against the better teams they've faced (7-0 vs Q2 and Q3 opposition) than 17 out of 18 ACC teams fared against similar competition (Q2 and Q3).

Not all Q2/Q3 teams are equal. For example, Bowling Green on the road was a Q2 win for Miami (OH). Would you say that'd be as impressive a win as Clemson at home? Because they'd both simply show up as Q2 games if you were just looking at those records.



Clemson is Q1, not Q2.

Miami beat Akron, currently ranked just above us on the NET, so near the top of Q2. Bowling Green from the MAC is in the neighborhood of Oregon, Utah, UCSD, UCSB and Kent St further down the MAC Q2 list is still above Georgia Tech.

Miami (FL) lost to Q3 team FSU, #99 NET, and Q2 team Cal. Miami (OH) is undefeated, 7-0 vs 3 Q2s and 4 Q3s, while Miami (FL) is 6-2 vs combined Q2 and Q3.

My original case was that based on the records above, and the propensity of Miami (OH) to consistently win out close games, they look like the more dangerous opponent of the two Miamis.

Clemson at home is not a Q1 game as it stands. Q1 home games are NET 1-30 teams. Clemson is sitting just outside the top 30 NET even after their win @ Stanford.

Miami (OH) is a solid team. But there's a reason they're ranked #82 on BartTorvik and #89 on KenPom, whereas Miami (FL) is ranked #44 on BartTorvik and #39 on KenPom.
 
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