sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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I see a lot of folks saying the US had an "easy group"

Here are the groups sorted by average fifa rank and then by avg rank of the three lowest rated teams. Group D is either 2nd or 1st in terms of avg FIFA rankings. pic.twitter.com/m7cU3Fz5nJ

— The Mandalawyerin (@mandalawyerin) June 20, 2026

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These FIFA rankings were pre-WC, they are the equivalent of pre-season NCAAF rankings. Turkey for instance was ranked #22 before the WC, they were clearly way overrated, are now down to #32. Paraguay is at #37, Oz #26.

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Okay, but re-rating the groups based on what happened in the tournament is dicey. By that logic the US devalues its own schedule by destroying the teams it goes up against. That might not be happening because the teams were bad.

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We'll find out in the first couple of knockout games.

It was good of FIFA to schedule 2 crappy matchups on Saturday night.

USA wins their group and will play in the Bay.

One more point for the casuals. All the top teams counter-press. That is, when they lose the ball, they work together to get it back quickly. The US has never had an even average counter-press. This team has a great counter-press. Maybe counter-pressing Paraguay and Australia does not mean much, but it was also effective against Germany. And if you can counter-press Germany, you can counter-press anyone.

To effectively counter-press you need great athletes, good coaching, and high motivation. Right now we have all three.

Not only has the US advanced but Turkiye has been eliminated. So what happens in our game? I don't know what Turkiye will do, but I think the US will play the bench. There are too many players with yellows or recent injuries to do otherwise. Unless I am wrong.

The lineup I expect is:
Goalie: Turner, although it is possible he plays Freese to give him more practice.
Defenders (from left to right): Arfsten, Trusty, McKenzie, Scally. I would be shocked not to see this line other than if Poch played M. Robinson over McKenzie, I am not sure who he rates higher.
Defensive midfielders: Berhalter and Roldan.
Offensive midfielder: Aaronson. Reyna is too unfit to start.
Wingers: Weah and Zendejas. They are both right wingers but I think Poch will play Weah on the left.
Striker: Wright. Pepi was quite bad as a starter against Australia. Wright is a better player plus he is fresh.

Some of the guys without yellows might play a few minutes in the second half to maintain fitness, we will see.

sluggo said:

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I, my son, and my son's many roommates are going to shave our heads if the US makes the semifinals. Anyone else want to join in? I will post a semi-anonymized picture if it happens.

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3 men make a pact….

Finishing third in a group of four and moving on is a FIFA money grab

On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

So far deep into matchday 2 we have these breakdowns of the field:

The class of the tournament, at least 2 of these will be in the semis, depending on whether they meet earlier or not:
France, Argentina, Spain

Dangerous teams:
Morocco, England, Germany, Holland, Japan

Potential spoilers:
Norway, Belgium, Cote d'Ivoire; USA and Canada playing at home with big momentum, both top players Pulisic and Davies will be healthy in the bracket games.

Team Senegal is in disarray, problems with organisation and players not getting paid, otherwise would have been on top of the spoilers category.

Anarchistbear said:

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Finishing third in a group of four and moving on is a FIFA money grab

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Yes but that has nothing to do with the tiebreaker rules

dajo9 said:

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Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

So far deep into matchday 2 we have these breakdowns of the field:

The class of the tournament, at least 2 of these will be in the semis, depending on whether they meet earlier or not:
France, Argentina, Spain

Dangerous teams:
Morocco, England, Germany, Holland, Japan

Potential spoilers:
Norway, Belgium, Cote d'Ivoire; USA and Canada playing at home with big momentum, both top players Pulisic and Davies will be healthy in the bracket games.

Team Senegal is in disarray, problems with organisation and players not getting paid, otherwise would have been on top of the spoilers category.

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Mexico not a potential spoiler? Team North America is 6-0 with a a +14 differential

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5-0-1. Canada tied Bosnia.

Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

So far deep into matchday 2 we have these breakdowns of the field:

The class of the tournament, at least 2 of these will be in the semis, depending on whether they meet earlier or not:
France, Argentina, Spain

Dangerous teams:
Morocco, England, Germany, Holland, Japan

Potential spoilers:
Norway, Belgium, Cote d'Ivoire; USA and Canada playing at home with big momentum, both top players Pulisic and Davies will be healthy in the bracket games.

Team Senegal is in disarray, problems with organisation and players not getting paid, otherwise would have been on top of the spoilers category.

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It's like NCAA basketball. Everyone loves Cinderella but she always loses. Still fun

sycasey said:

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dajo9 said:

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Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

So far deep into matchday 2 we have these breakdowns of the field:

The class of the tournament, at least 2 of these will be in the semis, depending on whether they meet earlier or not:
France, Argentina, Spain

Dangerous teams:
Morocco, England, Germany, Holland, Japan

Potential spoilers:
Norway, Belgium, Cote d'Ivoire; USA and Canada playing at home with big momentum, both top players Pulisic and Davies will be healthy in the bracket games.

Team Senegal is in disarray, problems with organisation and players not getting paid, otherwise would have been on top of the spoilers category.

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Mexico not a potential spoiler? Team North America is 6-0 with a a +14 differential

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5-0-1. Canada tied Bosnia.

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Damn Canadians

If New Zealand and Egypt draw then all of Group G should be eliminated

smh said:

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dajo9 said:

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> Damn Canadians

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me and my better half drove up to canada several times, twice to reconnect with our transplanted draft dodging UCSD college buddy, many weeks just driving around /day hikes, bucchardt (spelling sucks) gardens included, vast open space and mtns # ohh canada # trump free zone # good times / long gone

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You drove to an island? Mad props!

edit: I'm aware that you can get to said island without leaving your car lol

ducktilldeath said:

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smh said:

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dajo9 said:

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> Damn Canadians

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me and my better half drove up to canada several times, twice to reconnect with our transplanted draft dodging UCSD college buddy, many weeks just driving around /day hikes, bucchardt (spelling sucks) gardens included, vast open space and mtns # ohh canada # trump free zone # good times / long gone

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You drove to an island? Mad props!
edit: I'm aware that you can get to said island without leaving your car lol

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some of this some of that, waayback in the rear view mirror
# ferries rock # life sentence stuck at home bear # bought several fetching sheep skins

smh said:

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ducktilldeath said:

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smh said:

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dajo9 said:

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> Damn Canadians

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me and my better half drove up to canada several times, twice to reconnect with our transplanted draft dodging UCSD college buddy, many weeks just driving around /day hikes, bucchardt (spelling sucks) gardens included, vast open space and mtns # ohh canada # trump free zone # good times / long gone

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You drove to an island? Mad props!
edit: I'm aware that you can get to said island without leaving your car lol

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some of this some of that, waayback in the rear view mirror
# ferries rock # life sentence stuck at home bear # bought several fetching sheep skins

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#portangeles

Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

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There's talk that the tournament will soon expand to 64 teams.

That would see 16 groups of 4 with the top 2 moving on the elimination stage of final 32 teams and 2 getting dropped after the first 3 group games.

I think it's great and I totally agree with your point about teams warning up and gelling.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

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There's talk that the tournament will soon expand to 64 teams.

That would see 16 groups of 4 with the top 2 moving on the elimination stage of final 32 teams and 2 getting dropped after the first 3 group games.

I think it's great and I totally agree with your point about teams warning up and gelling.

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64 is better than 48 for competitive reasons. The fact they created a system where 1/3 of the group winners have to face a runner up and the other 2/3 do not is asinine. The difference between a 2nd place group finisher and 3rd is frequently enormous. One could argue that the competition itself will be watered down at 64(it would be), but at least there isn't an inherent unfairness to the system. The randomness of the group selection process is one thing, but baking in a massive disadvantage for GROUP WINNERS is NCAA/FIA/IOC levels of stupidity.

There were complaints that the U.S. didn't have enough practice fields for 48 teams. When they go to 64 teams I guess the host will be Europe. Or Asia. It will become about what country hosts the final rounds.

dajo9 said:

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There were complaints that the U.S. didn't have enough practice fields for 48 teams. When they go to 64 teams I guess the host will be Europe. Or Asia. It will become about what country hosts the final rounds.

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lol, what? Division 3 St Edwards here in Austin has a field they could use. There are THOUSANDS of them.

ducktilldeath said:

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dajo9 said:

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There were complaints that the U.S. didn't have enough practice fields for 48 teams. When they go to 64 teams I guess the host will be Europe. Or Asia. It will become about what country hosts the final rounds.

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lol, what? Division 3 St Edwards here in Austin has a field they could use. There are THOUSANDS of them.

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Do they meet FIFA's standards for grass? I'm just saying what I've heard.

https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/news/last-stitch-world-cup-2026-houston-stadium-ferguson-hodge

New bracket projection:

Cal88 said:

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This new rule sucks, it destroys interest and incentive for teams to play in matchday 3 games and ends up distorting the competitive process in group play. It will probably be removed in 2030.

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I have not yet decided which way I like it it (first tiebreaker being head-to-head OR goal differential), but I recall similar circumstances in past years where games would be rendered insignificant because it would be impossible to overcome a large goal differential.

WHY YOU LIKE THE OLD RULE:
Winner of Australia vs Paraguay on Thursday would get to 6 points, while USA could lose and stay at 6 points

2026 rule:
USA has nothing to lose, game is meaningless.

2022 rule:
USA would have to assure itself of not losing its GD advantage over Australia.

WHY I LIKE THE NEW RULE:
In the group with
Germany 6 point +7 gd
Ivory Coast 3 points 0 gd
Ecuador
Curacao

If Germany loses to Ecuador and Ivory Coast crushes Curacao by 8-0, that group would be topped in 2026 by Ivory Coast on a stupid goal differential rule, when Germany already defeated them.

The old rule makes Curacao be the determining factor in a group they suck in. In this situation, the 2026 head-to-head tiebreaker makes more sense.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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This new rule sucks, it destroys interest and incentive for teams to play in matchday 3 games and ends up distorting the competitive process in group play. It will probably be removed in 2030.

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I have not yet decided which way I like it it (first tiebreaker being head-to-head OR goal differential), but I recall similar circumstances in past years where games would be rendered insignificant because it would be impossible to overcome a large goal differential.

WHY YOU LIKE THE OLD RULE:
Winner of Australia vs Paraguay on Thursday would get to 6 points, while USA could lose and stay at 6 points

2026 rule:
USA has nothing to lose, game is meaningless.

2022 rule:
USA would have to assure itself of not losing its GD advantage over Australia.

WHY I LIKE THE NEW RULE:
In the group with
Germany 6 point +7 gd
Ivory Coast 3 points 0 gd
Ecuador
Curacao

If Germany loses to Ecuador and Ivory Coast crushes Curacao by 8-0, that group would be topped in 2026 by Ivory Coast on a stupid goal differential rule, when Germany already defeated them.

The old rule makes Curacao be the determining factor in a group they suck in. In this situation, the 2026 head-to-head tiebreaker makes more sense.

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I agree that in a tiebreaker scenario the head-to-head winner should advance

Bad miss by Messi on a penalty against Austria early in the game. At lest the foul wasn't dodgy.

Lionel Messi MISSES a penalty wide right with a chance at the all-time World Cup record pic.twitter.com/Z6PRwThUFt

— Nick Harris (@NickHarrisFWST) June 22, 2026

ducktilldeath said:

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concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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On the plus side, you have nice side stories like Curacao, Bosnia and DR Congo who wouldn't have qualified otherwise. The other positive is that these tuneup games allow teams to gel and start the knockout rounds in a better shape, look at the USMNT. On the negative side, you have 20-30 games that are fillers.

---

There's talk that the tournament will soon expand to 64 teams.

That would see 16 groups of 4 with the top 2 moving on the elimination stage of final 32 teams and 2 getting dropped after the first 3 group games.

I think it's great and I totally agree with your point about teams warning up and gelling.

---

64 is better than 48 for competitive reasons. The fact they created a system where 1/3 of the group winners have to face a runner up and the other 2/3 do not is asinine. The difference between a 2nd place group finisher and 3rd is frequently enormous. One could argue that the competition itself will be watered down at 64(it would be), but at least there isn't an inherent unfairness to the system. The randomness of the group selection process is one thing, but baking in a massive disadvantage for GROUP WINNERS is NCAA/FIA/IOC levels of stupidity.

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How about if they put every country in and establish the tradition of always having the opening game be between Italy and Vatican City, with an accompanying giant world-wide pool for the game's goal differential?

gotta think outside the box on this...

Alternatively, have the opener be between the US and Greenland, winner gets to annex the other country. Okay, some stick-in-the-mud will say that Greenland is not its own country. Whatever, Denmark needs to help make this work.

Palestine vs Israel. Winner take all.

That second goal today. Messi.

Big C said:

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Okay, some stick-in-the-mud will say that Greenland is not its own country.

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FIFA has plenty of member "nations" that are actually territories of another country! Scotland and Wales, for example. Curacao is in this tournament and is a Dutch territory.

We can make it happen for Greenland.

🚨| BREAKING: If Argentina win tonight, this could be their path to the semi-finals.😳 pic.twitter.com/c3qcdPFkLh

— Winna F.C. | Football Time (@WinnaFC) June 22, 2026