The Economy

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DiabloWags
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6:56a, 3/3/26
For those that don't understand how the financial markets work.

With more inflationary pressure from higher oil and gasoline prices, there is less of a probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That means higher interest rates, which means support for the US Dollar.

There is also a flight to "safety" where people buy US Treasuries in times of war and uncertainty.
In order to buy those Treasuries, one has to convert their currency into the US Dollar.
Thus, they buy Dollars.

Hope this helps educate people here on how the markets work.

You're welcome!


https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/asian-currencies-mostly-weaken-after-strikes-on-iran-abf2d8ce?st=UvmXHp&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:06a, 3/3/26
Thank you for backing up what I said, the dollar is rising.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:10a, 3/3/26
BearlySane88 said:
Thank you for backing up what I said, the dollar is rising.


Let me ask you a question, how does the US Dollar rising for the past 2 days impact your life?
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:25a, 3/3/26
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.
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Cal88
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:06a, 3/3/26
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
Cal88 said:
BearlySane88 said:
And it's now rising like my post said


What Wags is trying to tell you here is that you are being manipulated.



the recent bump up of the USD vs a basket of 6 major currencies is relatively minor.


BINGO.

I REPEAT: THE US DOLLAR HIT A 4-YEAR LOW IN JANUARY.



Doubling down on bad spin.

If anything, the fact that the biggest 2 day movement over the last 4 years was a 1.5% increase should tell you something, especially since in the last couple of months, this chart shows very recent steeper 2 day declines than the current small bounce.

verdict:
20% bad faith
80% ignorance
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:07a, 3/3/26
Nothing I said was untrue. Move on with your grading scale to someone who cares
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:13a, 3/3/26
BearlySane88 said:
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.


Interesting comment, given that gasoline prices have just surged more than in any day in the past 20 years.

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Cal88
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:13a, 3/3/26
BearlySane88 said:
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.


I will spare you further embarrassment by not posting the USD/CAN 12mo chart.

The Canadian dollar is likely to go further up due to higher oil and commodities prices, and with Carney having replaced Trudeau.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:15a, 3/3/26
Good thing I won't be driving!
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:16a, 3/3/26
Cal88 said:
BearlySane88 said:
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.


I will spare you further embarrassment by not posting the USD/CAN 12mo chart.

The Canadian dollar is likely to go further up due to higher oil and commodities prices, and with Carney having replaced Trudeau.


Your condemnation means nothing to me. Haven't you learned that yet?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:16a, 3/3/26
Cal88 said:
BearlySane88 said:
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.


I will spare you further embarrassment by not posting the USD/CAN 12mo chart.

The Canadian dollar is likely to go further up due to higher oil and commodities prices, and with Carney having replaced Trudeau.


I think it's clear that there is a poster here that does not understand the factors that impact exchange rates.
Especially given Canada's energy rich economy that will benefit from higher oil and commodity prices.

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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:25a, 3/3/26
DiabloWags said:
Cal88 said:
BearlySane88 said:
If it holds or continues to rise, my dollar will go further on my jaunt up to Canada this weekend.


I will spare you further embarrassment by not posting the USD/CAN 12mo chart.

The Canadian dollar is likely to go further up due to higher oil and commodities prices, and with Carney having replaced Trudeau.


I think it's clear that there is a poster here that does not understand the factors that impact exchange rates.
Especially given Canada's energy rich economy that will benefit from higher oil and commodity prices.



https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-cad-historical-data

Upward trend over the last month+

We're going up, up, up
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DiabloWags
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8:25a, 3/3/26
The only thing going UP, UP, UP is Donald Trump's DISAPPROVAL RATING




(13) Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:31a, 3/3/26
Based on your own source, his net approval rating is actually going up as of most recently.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:32a, 3/3/26
Let me know where they are a week or two from now after the wholesale price increases for gasoline find their way to the retail pump.

Let me know where they are after a week or two from now of stock prices collapsing like they are today.

That chart above will be PUNCHING OUT NEW LOWS.

People vote with their wallet.





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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:35a, 3/3/26
I have no doubt you will post about it 10 times, I can't wait.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:38a, 3/3/26
BearlySane88 said:
I have no doubt you will post about it 10 times, I can't wait.


I can't wait for MIDTERMS.
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concordtom
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In reply to cbbass1 • 2:07a, 3/4/26
cbbass1 said:
Cal88 said:
Shorting silver seems like a risky move, Wags!

Fer sure!

Facts revealed in The Asian Guy's channel:
  • Silver is unique. It's the most electrically conductive and thermally conductive element in the periodic table. As such, it's a critical material for solar panels, all high-performance electronics, "defense" electronics, power generations (data centers!), EVs, batteries, medicine.
  • Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow at least 18% per year over the next few years
  • JPM, Citigroup, GS, & BofA have had emergency BOD meetings where the Board ordered the liquidation of all their silver short positions over the next couple weeks.
  • This means that Billions of ounces of physical silver must be purchased on the open market and delivered to futures contract holders.
  • The predicted average purchase price for these physical ounces -- predicted by the institutions themselves -- ranges from $309/oz (BofA) to $426/oz (JPM -- holder of the largest short position).
  • There is nowhere near enough physical silver in the world to close out these existing short positions.
  • Losses will be in the hundreds of $billions for each of these banks.
  • Pension funds & prudent individuals are now buying what's left of the remaining physical silver due to recent performance.
  • Most silver is mined as a secondary metal to lead or tin. Even if the price goes to $200/oz, the mines won't be able to produce more. As demand for other products decreases, worldwide production of silver is likely to decrease, even at higher prices.
  • China, Switzerland, Mexico, and other nations have placed restrictions on all exports of silver. Resource nationalism is the rule of the day until further notice.
  • The central banks of China, Russia, and the BRICS nations have been buying physical gold & silver for months, and dumping U.S. Treasuries.
  • Gold & silver are now, effectively, the world's reserve currencies.
  • The day before Maduro was kidnapped from Venezuela, several planes arrived & shipped Venezuela's gold & silver reserves to China.
  • Over the last several years, several U.S. insiders, with the assistance of at least one Member of Congress, have smuggled the contents of the U.S. Silver Stockpile to China, labeling it as "mining equipment" in order to bypass export restrictions.
  • When Maduro was kidnapped by U.S. special forces, he guaranteed his survival by naming the U.S. individuals who conspired to steal the U.S. Silver Stockpile.
From elsewhere:
  • This manipulation of the prices of silver & gold was illegal under the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which prevented banks from gambling with their depositors' $$. The intent was to prohibit the policies & practices that contributed to the bank failures associated with the Great Depression.
  • The Glass-Steagall Act was repealed by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, signed by President Bill Clinton in 1999.
  • Here we go again....!
  • It's a good time to look up "Force majeure."
https://www.youtube.com/@JonConnecting_Currency


Interesting post. Thx.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 6:40a, 3/4/26
This post literally called the TOP in the Silver market.
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Cal88
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8:28a, 3/4/26
Asians markets reeling. Korea, Thailand, Japan, Vietnam and others are highly dependent on Gulf oil and LNG.



China has set up a contingency plan with plants that convert coal into gas, same tech used by Germany in WW2.
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BearlySane88
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4:24p, 3/4/26
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 4:30p, 3/4/26
Here, let me help offer some insight.

A distinction needs to be made here.

Investors are simply selling out of Mutual Funds and switching into ETF's given lower expenses.
This has been a powerful trend since 2024.

For example, in 2024 mutual funds bled a net $451 Billion.
While their ETF counterparts took in a record $1.1 TRILLION.

Why?

Because ETF's offer superior tax efficiency and liquidity.

Free link from Bloomberg for those that wish to learn more about this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/mutual-funds-bleed-another-432-billion-as-etf-conversions-grow?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MjY3MDg3MCwiZXhwIjoxNzczMjc1NjcwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUMTcyM1FHT1QwSkwwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTE0NjgyRTVEQjI0RDgyOEVGOTIxMzA1M0U4NzhDMiJ9.Lmy9Ai9AgBwnOWOP0QUqwXsc4kAvZyJ13_U201yel-U

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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:36p, 3/4/26
It still means investors trust our markets more than others
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 4:42p, 3/4/26
BearlySane88 said:
It still means investors trust our markets more than others


Your statement makes no sense.
They were ALREADY invested in the U.S Equity market through Mutual Funds.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:44p, 3/4/26
Reinvesting it would mean they still have faith in the US markets. Can you stop responding to me so quickly please
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 4:45p, 3/4/26
Why would they not given that Jerome Powell is Chairman of the Federal Reserve and has not succumbed to pressure from Trump and the White House to lower rates when the Core PCE is still at 3%?


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:46p, 3/4/26
Because you keep claiming Trump is running the markets into the ground
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 4:49p, 3/4/26
BearlySane88 said:
Because you keep claiming Trump is running the markets into the ground

You're terribly mistaken.
When did I say that?
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 5:12p, 3/4/26
I should have said running the economy into the ground not markets. That's my bad
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BearlySane88
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5:58p, 3/4/26
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:27a, 3/5/26
I see that you follow the markets.

Do you have any money invested in the U.S. stock market?

If so, how much of your net liquid worth?
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:30a, 3/5/26
DiabloWags said:
I see that you follow the markets.

Do you have any money invested in the U.S. stock market?
How much of your net liquid worth?


My personal finances aren't really your business. I've said before I don't have as much invested as you do but enough that it matters what happens with the markets.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:32a, 3/5/26
So if you care about what happens to the U.S. equity market, are you concerned about the impact of a prolonged war in the Middle East that could take oil prices up to as high as $108 a barrel?

A 1% drop in supply usually pushes up prices by roughly 4%.

What do you think that would do to interest rates?
What do you think that would do to the CPI?
What do you think that would do to stocks?
And U.S. GDP?

And Trump's Approval Rating?


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:30a, 3/5/26
DiabloWags said:
So if you care about what happens to the U.S. equity market, are you concerned about the impact of a prolonged war in the Middle East that could take oil prices up to as high as $108 a barrel?

A 1% drop in supply usually pushes up prices by roughly 4%.

What do you think that would do to interest rates?
What do you think that would do to the CPI?
What do you think that would do to stocks?
And U.S. GDP?

And Trump's Approval Rating?




Concerned, no. Aware, yes.

Trump's approval number doesn't really matter as he's not running for reelection but obviously it's something I look at to compare to past presidents.

The rest of your questions I'll leave to my stock broker aka my partner.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 1:14p, 3/5/26
I believe that is called deflection.

In my opinion, Cal88 is right.
You are not a good faith poster in this forum.
You are not genuinely interested in an honest discussion.
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