The Economy

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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 7:38a, 3/10/26
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:

A lagging indicator already out of date


Every indicator right now is out of date.
For obvious reasons. But the markets are still going to be interested.

I'm more interested in CORE PCE which comes out on Friday.
3.2% estimate.

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BearlySane88
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8:55a, 3/10/26
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concordtom
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3:59p, 3/10/26
Unsustainable and increasing debt article.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/cannot-sustainable-u-borrowed-50-145204511.html
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DiabloWags
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4:02p, 3/10/26
Here, let me help educate you on how the market closed today:








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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:06p, 3/10/26
DiabloWags said:
Here, let me help educate you on how the market closed today:










Pretty solid day for all that's going on. Very minor losses
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BearlySane88
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7:12a, 3/11/26


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DiabloWags
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7:17a, 3/11/26
Sadly, that CPI number that just came out this morning is no longer relevant.

Energy prices weren't reflected in the February report.
The war was launched on the last day of the month.

Duh.


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:23a, 3/11/26
So what's your expert projection?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:33a, 3/11/26
BearlySane88 said:
So what's your expert projection?

I'm waiting to see what the CORE PCE says on Friday even though it is late due to the shutdown.
This is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation.

The consensus estimate for January: 3.1%

Dec: 3.0%
Nov: 2.8%

You're welcome.








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Aunburdened
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 9:40a, 3/11/26
BearlySane88 said:
So what's your expert projection?

We would need to find an expert first
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smh
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In reply to Aunburdened • 10:30a, 3/11/26
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.
sighned, not dead yet # funk trunk
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Aunburdened
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In reply to smh • 10:33a, 3/11/26
smh said:
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.

Nothing funnier than BI liberals constantly assuming that I'm other accounts on this site. My favorite was when Eastern Oregon Bear was convinced I was BearForce2.
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smh
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In reply to Aunburdened • 10:42a, 3/11/26
Aunburdened said:
smh said:
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.

Nothing funnier than BI liberals constantly assuming that I'm other accounts on this site. My favorite was when Eastern Oregon Bear was convinced I was BearForce2.

think being called BearForce2 was a dig? well, no, not necessarily. but "you be you" might be good advice.
signed, highest respect deserved for EOB, just imo
# i said too much, again, darn
sighned, not dead yet # funk trunk
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Cal88
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3:01p, 3/11/26
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:05p, 3/11/26
I saw that yesterday.
It's completely off the charts!

$1 TRILLION IN ONLY 5 MONTHS!

$308 BILLION LAST MONTH ALONE.





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Cal88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:09p, 3/11/26
And that was before Operation Epstein and Oil Shock III.
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BearlySane88
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6:52a, 3/12/26


The post reports the US goods and services trade deficit shrank over 25% to $54.5 billion in January 2026, surpassing economist forecasts
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cal83dls79
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7:18a, 3/12/26
Mostly gold this time. WSJ op ed:

The world isn't deglobalizing. It's reglobalizing around partners who commit to rules rather than those who wield tariffs like a club. The long-term cost of these tariffs isn't measured in revenue collected. It's measured in partnerships formed without us and the rise of a trading system that no longer needs U.S. participation to function
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:33a, 3/12/26
BearlySane88 said:


The post reports the US goods and services trade deficit shrank over 25% to $54.5 billion in January 2026, surpassing economist forecasts


This report was once again impacted by Gold.
I've repeatedly talked about this. DLS (above) mentioned it again.

The export of non-monetary GOLD overstates the narrowing trade deficit.
And it's not included in the GDP calculation.

You should be aware of this by now.

Gold overstates narrowing in January international trade deficit

The improvement in the trade deficit is even smaller after removing gold for investment purposes, which is not included in the GDP calculation.

Exports of nonmonetary gold accounted for $4.7 billion of the $14.6 billion total increase in exports. Imports of nonmonetary gold accounted for approximately $1.1 billion to the total $2.8 billion drop. After taking out nonmonetary gold, the trade deficit narrowed significantly less, by about 11.8%.

Narrowing of the trade deficit could be short-lived
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concordtom
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In reply to Aunburdened • 9:18a, 3/12/26
Aunburdened said:
smh said:
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.

Nothing funnier than BI liberals constantly assuming that I'm other accounts on this site. My favorite was when Eastern Oregon Bear was convinced I was BearForce2.

Well, at the very least you've obviously had more than one (this) handle, so there's that!!!
Like, you JUST tried to suggest aunburdened is your only ever account, which … there's no way.
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DiabloWags
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9:32a, 3/12/26
Looks like the Bond Market is finally becoming more concerned about inflation.



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Aunburdened
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In reply to concordtom • 11:23a, 3/12/26
concordtom said:
Aunburdened said:
smh said:
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.

Nothing funnier than BI liberals constantly assuming that I'm other accounts on this site. My favorite was when Eastern Oregon Bear was convinced I was BearForce2.

Well, at the very least you've obviously had more than one (this) handle, so there's that!!!
Like, you JUST tried to suggest aunburdened is your only ever account, which … there's no way.


I never said this was the only account I've ever had on this site, but then no one ever accused you of being smart
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Aunburdened • 11:57a, 3/12/26
Aunburdened said:
smh said:
replying to yourselves again? tre coool.

Nothing funnier than BI liberals constantly assuming that I'm other accounts on this site. My favorite was when Eastern Oregon Bear was convinced I was BearForce2.
I don't recall doing that, but I suspect I was being facetious or maybe highlighting an occasion when you and movielover had the same opinion.
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DiabloWags
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6:41a, 3/13/26


A dramatic slowdown from the 4.4% growth in Q3.
And Core PCE up at 3.1% now.


Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%
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DiabloWags
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7:11a, 3/13/26
GDP for 2025 grew at a puny 2.1%
Looks like Howard Lutnick our Commerce Secretary will have to revise his boasting of 6% GDP in 2026.

Q4 GDP: 0.7%






GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:58a, 3/13/26
DiabloWags said:
GDP for 2025 grew at a puny 2.1%
Looks like Howard Lutnick our Commerce Secretary will have to revise his boasting of 6% GDP in 2026.

Q4 GDP: 0.7%






GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)


Must be Biden's economy again
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:26a, 3/13/26
I'll be honest. I would have thought that by now Trump would have been successful in doctoring the economy stats that just came out.
Had they been decent to good, I'd have thought he did so.
But these numbers are…not at all catastrophic, but not Trump-like.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 8:27a, 3/13/26
I disagree.



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concordtom
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8:27a, 3/13/26
News piece that TSA is not getting paid, we knew, but now also agents have setup donation stations so that passengers can help feed them.
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DiabloWags
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8:30a, 3/13/26
To go from 4.4% to 0.7% GDP in consecutive quarters is catastrophic.

Notice that even the typical Trump supporter in this forum has refrained from "spinning" these numbers.
Not a single one has commented.

They're so bad, you can't spin them.
And this data is pre-attack Iran.
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DiabloWags
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8:49a, 3/13/26
Oooops.

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BearlySane88
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In reply to concordtom • 9:16a, 3/13/26
concordtom said:
News piece that TSA is not getting paid, we knew, but now also agents have setup donation stations so that passengers can help feed them.


Yes thanks to the democrats who are now changing tune after seeing their home states attacked

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BearlySane88
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9:22a, 3/13/26
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 9:26a, 3/13/26
I think that after nearly a year of tariffs, they clearly haven't helped our GDP.

FWIW, Jamieson Greer is telling Companies that they should hand over their tariff money to workers.
For starters, I don't think the federal government has any power or say in the matter.

There's nothing like the Govt creating total chaos with stupid policy . . . and then turning around and telling companies to offer a "remedy" in order to deal with the Govt's stupid policy.

You just can't make this **** up!

Greer Urges Companies to Give Tariff Refunds as Worker Bonuses - Bloomberg
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sycasey
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In reply to dajo9 • 4:44p, 3/13/26
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
GDP for 2025 grew at a puny 2.1%
Looks like Howard Lutnick our Commerce Secretary will have to revise his boasting of 6% GDP in 2026.

Q4 GDP: 0.7%






GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)


Must be Biden's economy again

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