The Economy

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DiabloWags
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movielover said:

Democrat free trader who was replaced by Larry Kudlow.


Also a devout Jew who had a big problem with Trump saying that there were "fine people on BOTH sides" in Charlottesville.

Dude left Goldman with over $200 million.
Not bad for someone that had huge dyslexia.

DiabloWags
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GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
dajo9
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The national debt has now just about doubled since Trump came down that elevator and won 2 elections
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
Cal88
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Damn, he should have taken the stairs instead.
DiabloWags
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dajo9 said:

The national debt has now just about doubled since Trump came down that elevator and won 2 elections


You are correct.

It was $19.9 TRILLION.

It's now $39 TRILLION

I'm sure an uber-Trump Defender will show up to tell us that our math skills are poor.
Or it's Biden's fault.


chazzed
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DiabloWags said:






GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


I'm no expert, but these snapshots taken together are probably bad.

movielover
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DiabloWags said:

dajo9 said:

The national debt has now just about doubled since Trump came down that elevator and won 2 elections


You are correct.

It was $19.9 TRILLION.

It's now $39 TRILLION

I'm sure an uber-Trump Defender will show up to tell us that our math skills are poor.
Or it's Biden's fault.





Bidenflation and profligate Plandemic spending (20% inflation).
movielover
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chazzed said:

DiabloWags said:






GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


I'm no expert, but these snapshots taken together are probably bad.




"Expectations".
Cal88
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DiabloWags
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I haven't seen howard lutnick around lately.
He must have lost his pom poms.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

chazzed said:

DiabloWags said:






GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


I'm no expert, but these snapshots taken together are probably bad.




"Expectations".


Yes Chazzed, as to your #4 the CME Fed Funds Futures Tool is now actually seeing a probability of a rate HIKE showing up for the September Fed Meeting. There are no probabilities for rate cuts at all in 2026. The Orange Man will be MAD!

Can't wait to see Trump fans post some more of those Truflation tweets.
lol

Aunburdened
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DiabloWags said:

dajo9 said:

The national debt has now just about doubled since Trump came down that elevator and won 2 elections


You are correct.

It was $19.9 TRILLION.

It's now $39 TRILLION

I'm sure an uber-Trump Defender will show up to tell us that our math skills are poor.
Or it's Biden's fault.

End of 2020: $27.748 trillion (+$5.029 trillion mostly due to COVID)
End of 2024: $35.460 trillion

$7.7 trillion increase on Biden's watch that has nothing to do with Trump.

More fun facts about the debt:

Debt increased over $2 Trillion in the last 3 years of the Biden presidency. The only year that the debt increased more than $2 Trillion in the first Trump presidency was 2020, the COVID year.

The debt increased $672 billion in the first year of the Trump presidency. Every year of the Obama presidency was higher than that figure except 2013 (also $672 billion) and 2015 ($326 billion) as was every year of the Biden presidency.

Sorry to introduce facts into your TDS session.

DiabloWags
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More Fun Facts for those that suffer from Trump Devotion Syndrome...

During Donald Trump's presidency (2017-2021), the gross national debt increased by approximately $7.8 Trillion, reaching a total of $27.75 trillion by the time he left office. This represented a roughly 33% increase in the national debt.

In his first full year of Trump's second term, the national debt has increased $2.25 Trillion.

Another FUN FACT.... The debt has increased by $1 Trillion over the last 5 months.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/
dajo9
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DiabloWags said:

More Fun Facts for those that suffer from Trump Devotion Syndrome...

During Donald Trump's presidency (2017-2021), the gross national debt increased by approximately $7.8 Trillion, reaching a total of $27.75 trillion by the time he left office. This represented a roughly 33% increase in the national debt.

In his first full year of his second term, the national debt has increased $2.25 Trillion.



The tax policy during 2021-2024 was also the policy Trump implemented.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
DiabloWags
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dajo9 said:

DiabloWags said:

More Fun Facts for those that suffer from Trump Devotion Syndrome...

During Donald Trump's presidency (2017-2021), the gross national debt increased by approximately $7.8 Trillion, reaching a total of $27.75 trillion by the time he left office. This represented a roughly 33% increase in the national debt.

In his first full year of his second term, the national debt has increased $2.25 Trillion.



The tax policy during 2021-2024 was also the policy Trump implemented.


Yes, Trump did that.

His OBBB added another $4.5 Trillion to the debt over 10 years.

Another Fun FACT.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:



"Expectations".


Speaking of which, whatever happened to Howard Lutnick's EXPECTATION for 6% GDP in 2026?

What's he saying now?
bearister
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DiabloWags said:



Speaking of which, whatever happened to Howard Lutnick…..

What's he saying now?



With regard to Epstein?



Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
cal83dls79
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bearister said:

DiabloWags said:



Speaking of which, whatever happened to Howard Lutnick…..

What's he saying now?



With regard to Epstein?




lutnick had some great predictions….But Schtoopid!
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

movielover said:



"Expectations".


Speaking of which, whatever happened to Howard Lutnick's EXPECTATION for 6% GDP in 2026?

What's he saying now?


He's saying, man, I'm making more money in this racket than ever!
DiabloWags
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cal83dls79 said:

bearister said:

DiabloWags said:



Speaking of which, whatever happened to Howard Lutnick…..

What's he saying now?



With regard to Epstein?




lutnick had some great predictions….But Schtoopid!


Even his buddies have gotten into his face lately.
The tangled webs we weave.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/20/confrontation-ceo-and-lutnick-00838496
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

Damn, he should have taken the stairs instead.

The only Trump that takes the stairs is Ivana Trump.
bearister
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"The United States faces a dire and unsustainable fiscal outlook.You'd never know it from the action in Washington, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.

Across parties and policy areas, you'd never guess that the U.S. faces fiscal constraints created by its high-and-rising debt, ballooning deficits without precedent in times of prosperity, and a looming entitlement spending crisis when the Social Security trust fund runs out.

State of play: Consider recent policy developments that will meaningfully make the fiscal picture worse.

President Trump is seeking $200 billion to fund the Iran war and replenish depleted weaponry.

The Supreme Court struck down the use of emergency authority to impose tariffs, and legal battles are underway over refunds.

For all the attention on DOGE last year, there's little evidence of lasting restraint of federal spending.

Zoom in: That all follows tax legislation enacted last year, scored by the Congressional Budget Office as increasing cumulative deficits by $3.4 trillion over a decade, with backloaded spending cuts smaller than combined tax cuts.

Even if Democrats regain power, some lawmakers are emphasizing possible further tax cuts. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) have proposed cutting taxes on middle- and upper-middle-class households.

By the numbers: The CBO projects deficits of around 6% of GDP each year for the next decade, numbers that predate the Iran war or Supreme Court tariff ruling. Other than in recent years, deficits of that scale have only been seen in times of economic crisis or major war.

Those same CBO projections have the public debt soaring to 120% of GDP by 2036, up from about 100% now.The all-time record for federal debt was 106% of GDP, reached during World War II.

Social Security could run out of funds in 2032,resulting in a politically toxic cut in payouts if Congress can't agree to extend benefits.

The bottom line: America's fiscal health is miserable. Nobody in Washington is acting like it."
Axios
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
dajo9
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bearister said:

"The United States faces a dire and unsustainable fiscal outlook.You'd never know it from the action in Washington, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.

Across parties and policy areas, you'd never guess that the U.S. faces fiscal constraints created by its high-and-rising debt, ballooning deficits without precedent in times of prosperity, and a looming entitlement spending crisis when the Social Security trust fund runs out.

State of play: Consider recent policy developments that will meaningfully make the fiscal picture worse.

President Trump is seeking $200 billion to fund the Iran war and replenish depleted weaponry.

The Supreme Court struck down the use of emergency authority to impose tariffs, and legal battles are underway over refunds.

For all the attention on DOGE last year, there's little evidence of lasting restraint of federal spending.

Zoom in: That all follows tax legislation enacted last year, scored by the Congressional Budget Office as increasing cumulative deficits by $3.4 trillion over a decade, with backloaded spending cuts smaller than combined tax cuts.

Even if Democrats regain power, some lawmakers are emphasizing possible further tax cuts. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) have proposed cutting taxes on middle- and upper-middle-class households.

By the numbers: The CBO projects deficits of around 6% of GDP each year for the next decade, numbers that predate the Iran war or Supreme Court tariff ruling. Other than in recent years, deficits of that scale have only been seen in times of economic crisis or major war.

Those same CBO projections have the public debt soaring to 120% of GDP by 2036, up from about 100% now.The all-time record for federal debt was 106% of GDP, reached during World War II.

Social Security could run out of funds in 2032,resulting in a politically toxic cut in payouts if Congress can't agree to extend benefits.

The bottom line: America's fiscal health is miserable. Nobody in Washington is acting like it."
Axios


You need to elect a Democratic President for people to care about the deficit
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
DiabloWags
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As a country, we dont really care about anything until it is BROKEN.

For example, Healthcare is essentially broken.
But it hasn't broken "enough" yet.

It has not been lost on some, that these massive annual deficits have occurred during relatively "good" economic growth.

Once we hit a Recession, all of those deficit numbers will obviously change dramatically for the worse. And the Bond Market will not be happy.

The yield on the 10 year surged this month, from 3.90% to 4.39% .... the highest since last July.

Large Cities like San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland are already in deficit Hell.

Less services, less consumption, less growth, higher taxes, and govt layoffs are coming.

calpoly
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dajo9 said:

bearister said:

"The United States faces a dire and unsustainable fiscal outlook.You'd never know it from the action in Washington, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.

Across parties and policy areas, you'd never guess that the U.S. faces fiscal constraints created by its high-and-rising debt, ballooning deficits without precedent in times of prosperity, and a looming entitlement spending crisis when the Social Security trust fund runs out.

State of play: Consider recent policy developments that will meaningfully make the fiscal picture worse.

President Trump is seeking $200 billion to fund the Iran war and replenish depleted weaponry.

The Supreme Court struck down the use of emergency authority to impose tariffs, and legal battles are underway over refunds.

For all the attention on DOGE last year, there's little evidence of lasting restraint of federal spending.

Zoom in: That all follows tax legislation enacted last year, scored by the Congressional Budget Office as increasing cumulative deficits by $3.4 trillion over a decade, with backloaded spending cuts smaller than combined tax cuts.

Even if Democrats regain power, some lawmakers are emphasizing possible further tax cuts. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) have proposed cutting taxes on middle- and upper-middle-class households.

By the numbers: The CBO projects deficits of around 6% of GDP each year for the next decade, numbers that predate the Iran war or Supreme Court tariff ruling. Other than in recent years, deficits of that scale have only been seen in times of economic crisis or major war.

Those same CBO projections have the public debt soaring to 120% of GDP by 2036, up from about 100% now.The all-time record for federal debt was 106% of GDP, reached during World War II.

Social Security could run out of funds in 2032,resulting in a politically toxic cut in payouts if Congress can't agree to extend benefits.

The bottom line: America's fiscal health is miserable. Nobody in Washington is acting like it."
Axios


You need to elect a Democratic President for people to care about the deficit

It would have been much cheaper to just gift tRump 10 billion dollars to not run for president than have him as president. Just think how much better off we would be.
bearister
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dajo9 said:



You need to elect a Democratic President for people to care about the deficit


Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
movielover
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DiabloWags said:

As a country, we dont really care about anything until it is BROKEN.

For example, Healthcare is essentially broken.
But it hasn't broken "enough" yet.

It has not been lost on some, that these massive annual deficits have occurred during relatively "good" economic growth.

Once we hit a Recession, all of those deficit numbers will obviously change dramatically for the worse. And the Bond Market will not be happy.

The yield on the 10 year surged this month, from 3.90% to 4.39% .... the highest since last July.

Large Cities like San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland are already in deficit Hell.

Less services, less consumption, less growth, higher taxes, and govt layoffs are coming.




From what baseline? Oregon's spending exploded during Covid.

Our state budget went from $215 billion (2019) to $349 billion (2027), a 6.24% compound growth rate exceeding the typical recent rate (4%) or inflation (2-3%).
Cal88
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Cal88
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Cal88
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DiabloWags
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The yield on the 10-Year T-Bond closed at 4.39% last Friday.
It started the month of March around 3.95

The big spike started Wednesday.

$200 Billion?




chazzed
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As long as the wealthy are doing well. Am I right?

Aunburdened
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chazzed said:

As long as the wealthy are doing well. Am I right?



I'll take "Things Democrats pretended not to notice from Jan 2021-Nov 2024 for $400", Ken.
DiabloWags
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Aunburdened said:

I'll take "Things Democrats pretended not to notice from Jan 2021-Nov 2024 for $400", Ken.


I believe Bernie Sanders is a Democrat.

Or at least he was when he ran for President in 2016 and 2020.

Apparently, he "noticed" it.

Thanks.






Bernie Sanders says the left has lost the working class. Has it forgotten how to speak to them?
sycasey
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DiabloWags said:

Aunburdened said:

I'll take "Things Democrats pretended not to notice from Jan 2021-Nov 2024 for $400", Ken.


I believe Bernie Sanders is a Democrat.

Technically he's an Independent.
 
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