DiabloWags said:

---

Doesn't seem to me like there's really a PLAN here . . . given all of the inconsistent messaging.

The fact that the talking heads like Hegseth aren't able to tell American's where was the IMMINENT THREAT and WHY NOW speaks volumes about this attack and operation.

---

Nobody is talking about Epstein or TrumpCoin or …..

Cal88 said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Israel is run by religious fanatics who want to conquer the entire Levant by divine right

---

I mean, let's be honest, so is Iran.

But all the more reason the US shouldn't be getting involved in offensive wars in the region.

---

Iran has not invaded any of its neighbors in our lifetimes, nor do they have a plan for regional conquest.

They have regional allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, who were created after Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, and who repelled Israeli invasion in 2006. If it wasn't for them, Israel would have already started ethnically cleansing and settling southern Lebanon, just as they have been doing in the West Bank, in gross violation of international law.

The Iranians held out their part of the JCPOA agreement, which was one of the positive achievements of the Obama administration in the region, solving the issue of nuclear proliferation in the region. Trump unilaterally scrapped it because his Israel First funders want the US to wage war on Iran.

---

Great points.
But maybe Iran should let us takeover their oil fields, because if their leader says they should defend themselves, and a million Iranians die as a result, they you'll think it was a needless sacrifice?

Cal88 said:

---

The Iranians held out their part of the JCPOA agreement, which was one of the positive achievements of the Obama administration in the region, solving the issue of nuclear proliferation in the region. Trump unilaterally scrapped it because his Israel First funders want the US to wage war on Iran.

---

I agree with that, scrapping it was one of the dumbest moves of Trump's first term and has led directly to this.

The stance of this Administration is literally "we have always been at war with Eurasia"

As an anxious nation and world await words of reassurance….perhaps the Thin White Duke will emerge to bring clarity and calmness to the chaos.

Good Lord, make it stop. . .

This is a rather generous reading of things in favor of Iran.

Iran has absolutely been involved in the region and expansion of Shia-ism; see Iraq. They have also been an ideological threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia due to their belief that Monarchies are inconsistent with Islam. This has manifested as armed conflict with Saudi Arabia. Iran's support of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis has not merely been an overt act against Israel it has toppled the existing governments in Yemen and Lebanon. Maybe Iran has not sought to expand their official borders but they have unquestionably been a source of regional instability and violence. Iran is not nearly the innocent actors your post implies.

Maybe it is, but the parts about Israel apply the same as well and the description was spot on

It's early and the US/Israel have a huge advantage in firepower, logistics and money, but

Trump may have actually believed via Venezuela that removing a head of state guarantees a falling in line but Iran is not Venezuela. It is a way more sophisticated culture and military adversary. It's obvious that a succession was in place and implemented quickly and that there is no mass uprising. There rarely is when bombs are raining down on you

A second miscalculation may be that Iran would quickly capitulate at the negotiating table but they aren't negotiating, which raises another question. Do you really rely on Jared Kushner- way over his head- to secure a nuclear deal?

Thirdly, the Iranian response against Gulf partners is clever because it extends the war and also puts pressure from these countries on Trump and Israel to call off the dogs in the interest of stable financial capital and markets.

Footage of Kuwaiti locals approaching one of the shot down American pilots this morning.

“Are you OK? Thank you for helping us.” pic.twitter.com/QCxUNxuSYF

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2026

"sir, they hit the second data center" https://t.co/aBaGBgMAWS pic.twitter.com/xbt4t1q9dV

— keshav (@kshvbgde) March 2, 2026

Anarchistbear said:

---

It's early and the US/Israel have a huge advantage in firepower, logistics and money, but

Trump may have actually believed via Venezuela that removing a head of state guarantees a falling in line but Iran is not Venezuela. It is a way more sophisticated culture and military adversary. It's obvious that a succession was in place and implemented quickly and that there is no mass uprising. There rarely is when bombs are raining down on you

A second miscalculation may be that Iran would quickly capitulate at the negotiating table but they aren't negotiating, which raises another question. Do you really rely on Jared Kushner- way over his head- to secure a nuclear deal?

Thirdly, the Iranian response against Gulf partners is clever because it extends the war and also puts pressure from these countries on Trump and Israel to call off the dogs in the interest of stable financial capital and markets.

---

EXCELLENT POINT.

#3 IS CLEARLY THE MOST IMPORTANT GIVEN POLITICS AND MIDTERMS.

CANT IMAGINE HOW LOW TRUMP'S DISAPPROVAL RATINGS GO IF THIS WAR BECOMES PROTRACTED.

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

tequila4kapp said:

---

This is a rather generous reading of things in favor of Iran.

Iran has absolutely been involved in the region and expansion of Shia-ism; see Iraq. They have also been an ideological threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia due to their belief that Monarchies are inconsistent with Islam. This has manifested as armed conflict with Saudi Arabia. Iran's support of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis has not merely been an overt act against Israel it has toppled the existing governments in Yemen and Lebanon. Maybe Iran has not sought to expand their official borders but they have unquestionably been a source of regional instability and violence. Iran is not nearly the innocent actors your post implies.

---

The Shiites already were in the region, they are the largest demographic blocks in Iraq and Lebanon today.

There never was an armed conflict between Saudi and Iran, in fact the two parties have been moving closer together recently. Only today is Iran striking Gulf Arab countries as the main staging grounds and logistical hubs in the US attacks.

Iranians do not support Hamas. Their main backers are Qataris and other Sunni governments.

🚨 BREAKING: The Pentagon confirms the US military has sunken ALL eleven Iranian military ships in the Gulf of Oman

“Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO.” — US CENTCOM pic.twitter.com/07IqCs3uX6

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) March 2, 2026

The Iranian Navy went down faster than Kamala's bid to be your goddess of Democracy.

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/south-vietnam-flag-explained-08302024215421.html

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

---

If you're referring to the Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader as the "government", then no, the majority of Iranians in Iran do not back them, quite the opposite. All the figures I see are close to 80% who oppose it.

Support for the government appears concentrated among a minority including those tied to state institutions and the military who may self-censor in polling situations due to political repression.

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

---

If you're referring to the Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader as the "government", then no, the majority of Iranians in Iran do not back them, quite the opposite. All the figures I see are close to 80% who oppose it.

Support for the government appears concentrated among a minority including those tied to state institutions and the military who may self-censor in polling situations due to political repression.

---

The figures you see, from your info bubble? Granted that's a pretty big bubble today that will include people like Rachel Maddow and top Democrats like Schumer, but that is still a picture detached from the reality of million man marches in Iranian cities in support for their government.

Iran is largely a nation of devout muslims, and we've just killed their top cardinal, then proceeded to bomb several schools and hospitals.

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

---

If you're referring to the Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader as the "government", then no, the majority of Iranians in Iran do not back them, quite the opposite. All the figures I see are close to 80% who oppose it.

Support for the government appears concentrated among a minority including those tied to state institutions and the military who may self-censor in polling situations due to political repression.

---

The figures you see, from your info bubble?

Iran is largely a nation of devout muslims, and we've just killed their top cardinal, then proceeded to bomb several schools and hospitals.

---

My data is from a June 2024 GAMAAN survey (over 77,000 respondents inside Iran, weighted to represent the literate adult population).

Earlier GAMAAN polls (e.g., during the 2022-2023 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests) showed even higher opposition, peaking at around 81% rejection of the government.

What do you have besides an old video of an unrelated 2018 bombing in Pakistan?

Anarchistbear said:

---

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

Anarchistbear said:

---

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

Hezbollah is going to have to learn how to rig pagers and cell phones from Jews.

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

---

The state says it is Muslim but what else are they going to say


An independent survey found differently.

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith while 1.5% said they were Christian.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-gamaan.html

Cal88 said:

---

It is also not a secular country by any means:

---

every handsome man will inherit a beautiful persian woman pic.twitter.com/fINVoJozCD

— arianna (@ruecambonx) March 1, 2026

Persian woman spring incoming.

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

---

If you're referring to the Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader as the "government", then no, the majority of Iranians in Iran do not back them, quite the opposite. All the figures I see are close to 80% who oppose it.

Support for the government appears concentrated among a minority including those tied to state institutions and the military who may self-censor in polling situations due to political repression.

---

The figures you see, from your info bubble?

Iran is largely a nation of devout muslims, and we've just killed their top cardinal, then proceeded to bomb several schools and hospitals.

---

My data is from a June 2024 GAMAAN survey (over 77,000 respondents inside Iran, weighted to represent the literate adult population).

Earlier GAMAAN polls (e.g., during the 2022-2023 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests) showed even higher opposition, peaking at around 81% rejection of the government.

What do you have besides an old video of an unrelated 2018 bombing in Pakistan?

---

GAMAAN is a neocon outfit, funded by the NED and the Tony Blair Institute (lol), NATO governments, and run by an anti-Iranian regime activist.

Quote:

---

GAMAAN (The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), a non-profit research foundation based in the Netherlands, primarily secures funding and operational support through partnerships with international, pro-democracy, and human rights-focused non-profit organizations, often funded by Western governments.
Main Sources of Funding and Support

• Abdorrahman Boroumand Center (ABC): GAMAAN's influential 2020 survey on religion was financially supported by and carried out in cooperation with Dr. Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, a Washington-based, U.S. government-funded (via the National Endowment for Democracy - NED) organization.
• Tony Blair Institute for Global Change: GAMAAN has a "partnership" with this U.K. nonprofit, which has used GAMAAN's survey data for reports on Iran.
• Open Technology Fund (OTF): GAMAAN collaborates with Psiphon, a VPN provider that receives substantial funding from the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM).

OTF receives the majority of its funding from the U.S. government via the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM). Funding is appropriated for OTF through the annual Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs appropriations and provided to OTF via a grant agreement from USAGM.

---

https://www.noirnews.org/p/gamaan-iran-polling-unreliable

Their numbers are polar opposites of surveys from more reliable sources like the Pew Research Ctr.



Iran at 87% for percent pop. praying daily. The numbers are from a decade ago, but you don't go from 87% to below 50% in 8 years.

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

This is a rather generous reading of things in favor of Iran.

Iran has absolutely been involved in the region and expansion of Shia-ism; see Iraq. They have also been an ideological threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia due to their belief that Monarchies are inconsistent with Islam. This has manifested as armed conflict with Saudi Arabia. Iran's support of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis has not merely been an overt act against Israel it has toppled the existing governments in Yemen and Lebanon. Maybe Iran has not sought to expand their official borders but they have unquestionably been a source of regional instability and violence. Iran is not nearly the innocent actors your post implies.

---

The Shiites already were in the region, they are the largest demographic blocks in Iraq and Lebanon today.

There never was an armed conflict between Saudi and Iran, in fact the two parties have been moving closer together recently. Only today is Iran striking Gulf Arab countries as the main staging grounds and logistical hubs in the US attacks.

Iranians do not support Hamas. Their main backers are Qataris and other Sunni governments.

---

Of course Shiites were already in the region, etc. That is besides the point, which is Iranian sphere of influence. Clearly, Iran has been involved in Iraq for such purposes.

There is a dispute over responsibility for the drone and missile attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil facility in 2019. The UN report concluded the attack did not come from the South / Houthis, as they claimed. Let's say this - you believe Iran wasn't the source and I disagree.

Your opinion about Hamas not being supported by Iran is definitely the minority view. According to AI Overview even Iran acknowledges they support Hamas, but denies involvement in the 10/7 attack.

This was a very good podcast, it made me think differently of the whole conflict with the information around the CIA and Saudis.

Really? Where are the uprising vids?

Anarchistbear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

---

The state says it is Muslim but what else are they going to say


An independent survey found differently.

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith while 1.5% said they were Christian.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-gamaan.html

---

This is the director of the outfit that did that "independent" survey:

https://x.com/LadiKhanom

Her outfit is funded by the NED, the Tony Blair Institute and the Department of State Foreign Operations.

Still think it's an independent survey?

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

---

The state says it is Muslim but what else are they going to say


An independent survey found differently.

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith while 1.5% said they were Christian.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-gamaan.html

---

This is the director of the outfit that did that "independent" survey:

https://x.com/LadiKhanom

Her outfit is funded by the NED, the Tony Blair Institute and the Department of State Foreign Operations.

Still think it's an independent survey?

---

Yes by my own experiences it's way more reliable than the state of Iran.

Anarchistbear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

---

I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

---

The state says it is Muslim but what else are they going to say


An independent survey found differently.

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith while 1.5% said they were Christian.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-gamaan.html

---

This is the director of the outfit that did that "independent" survey:

https://x.com/LadiKhanom

Her outfit is funded by the NED, the Tony Blair Institute and the Department of State Foreign Operations.

Still think it's an independent survey?

---

Yes by my own experiences it's way more reliable than the state of Iran.

---

But far less reliable than the Pew Research Ctr.

It's not often that you take the neocon side in a debate. This is a good example of pinkwashing, priming liberals to endorse neocon wars of choice in the Mideast.

https://www.noirnews.org/p/gamaan-iran-polling-unreliable

Quote:

---

'Ideological,' 'not scientific': Iran polling firm GAMAAN flawed, not independent
GAMAAN has extensive ties to U.S. government-funded, pro-regime change orgs, and employs unreliable survey methods that produce misleading results

The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), an influential Dutch polling firm that employs unorthodox survey methods to "extract the (real) opinions of Iranians about (sensitive) social and political topics," routinely calls itself an "independent" research foundation.

News outlets and researchers citing GAMAAN have echoed this refrain when discussing the organization's headline-grabbing findings, which portray the Iranian citizenry as far more secular and regime-critical compared to other polling research. GAMAAN asserts that its survey results can be generalized to the entire population of "literate individuals over the age of 19 residing in Iran."

However, an investigation by Noir News reveals extensive ties between GAMAAN and U.S. government-funded organizations, many of which openly advocate for regime change in Iran, casting doubt on the polling group's stated independence. Further, GAMAAN's findings are not applicable to the entire Iranian populace due to biased survey methods that lead to an unrepresentative sample, according to multiple polling experts.

"[T]hey know what they think, and they want to use the language of social science to demonstrate that those claims are actually truth. And of course, that's a problem," said Daniel Tavana, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Penn State who was a Principal Investigator for Princeton's Iran Social Survey.

"[T]hey're just ideological," Tavana said. "They are very opposed to the regime, want to embarrass the regime in whatever way they can, and are happy to say… whatever they think will most effectively do that in any given point of time, regardless of whether or not they have evidence for it."

While Iranian state-owned media has discussed some of GAMAAN's ties to Western-funded organizations and regime change proponents, and the limitations of its survey methods, Noir is the first to report the full scope of GAMAAN's numerous connections with U.S. government-funded regime change operatives, and the severity of its methodological issues.

---

I realize that this view is not very popular, but all you have to look at here is the experience of previous neocon regime change operations in the region, all of which have resulted in failed states and locals being crushed, with authoritarian regimes being replaced by chaos, poverty, civil wars and destitute misery, see Syria, Iraq, Libya.

These regime change operations are marketed as being done for the betterment of these target nations, with the results always being the opposite of that. In the case of Iran it will also result in global economic destabilization, more trillions for Forever War and casualties by the tens of thousands.

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

PAC-10-BEAR said:

---

We're in the middle of WW 7, Trump is still your president.

And Iranians are more pro-America than Democrats.

---

The Iranians in Los Angeles and London.

I doubt there will be any regime change in Iran as the majority backs their government and will rally around the flag.

I have never met a Vietnamese in CA who liked the government in Hanoi, you still see a lot of old timers here sporting the South Vietnam yellow striped flag, but in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City today, they support their government. Very much the same dynamic as with Iran and their expats.

---

If you're referring to the Islamic Republic under the Supreme Leader as the "government", then no, the majority of Iranians in Iran do not back them, quite the opposite. All the figures I see are close to 80% who oppose it.

Support for the government appears concentrated among a minority including those tied to state institutions and the military who may self-censor in polling situations due to political repression.

---

The figures you see, from your info bubble?

Iran is largely a nation of devout muslims, and we've just killed their top cardinal, then proceeded to bomb several schools and hospitals.

---

My data is from a June 2024 GAMAAN survey (over 77,000 respondents inside Iran, weighted to represent the literate adult population).

Earlier GAMAAN polls (e.g., during the 2022-2023 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests) showed even higher opposition, peaking at around 81% rejection of the government.

What do you have besides an old video of an unrelated 2018 bombing in Pakistan?

---

GAMAAN is a neocon outfit, funded by the NED and the Tony Blair Institute (lol), NATO governments, and run by an anti-Iranian regime activist.

Quote:

---

GAMAAN (The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), a non-profit research foundation based in the Netherlands, primarily secures funding and operational support through partnerships with international, pro-democracy, and human rights-focused non-profit organizations, often funded by Western governments.
Main Sources of Funding and Support

• Abdorrahman Boroumand Center (ABC): GAMAAN's influential 2020 survey on religion was financially supported by and carried out in cooperation with Dr. Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, a Washington-based, U.S. government-funded (via the National Endowment for Democracy - NED) organization.
• Tony Blair Institute for Global Change: GAMAAN has a "partnership" with this U.K. nonprofit, which has used GAMAAN's survey data for reports on Iran.
• Open Technology Fund (OTF): GAMAAN collaborates with Psiphon, a VPN provider that receives substantial funding from the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM).

OTF receives the majority of its funding from the U.S. government via the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM). Funding is appropriated for OTF through the annual Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs appropriations and provided to OTF via a grant agreement from USAGM.

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https://www.noirnews.org/p/gamaan-iran-polling-unreliable

Their numbers are polar opposites of surveys from more reliable sources like the Pew Research Ctr.



Iran at 87% for percent pop. praying daily. The numbers are from a decade ago, but you don't go from 87% to below 50% in 8 years.

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There is no Pew Research Center data with regards to this since they have not conducted recent surveys inside Iran on attitudes toward the government or the Islamic Republic.

In a 2024 Gallup poll, a slim majority of Iranians (52%) disapproved of their country's leadership, while 43% approved. Economic pessimism was stark: 50% saw the local economy worsening, 80% said it was a bad time to find a job, and overall views reflected persistent discontent amid sanctions, inflation, and post-2022 protest fallout.

In comparison to the GAMAAN poll, there is large difference: 70-80% opposition to the Islamic Republic. Gallup's in-country poll data are somewhat less extreme but still, majority/near-majority dissatisfaction.

Identification as Muslim or your praying frequency has nothing to do with government support.

Cal88 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Iran is a repressive regime which has tortured, killed and brutalized their own citizens in the name of God.

The truth is that Iran is a young country and young Iranians are not particularly religious. This is why a bet on time- Iran nuclear deal- was wise

I'm not sorry to see Khameni dead, and would be ecstatic should a similar fate happen to Biibi.

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I can't think of any government in the middle east that is not repressive. What is unique about Iran though is that it is a truly sovereign country, with an independent central bank.

Iran is not a particularly young country today, the median age is 34 (vs 39 in the US), it is a country of younger X geners and older millennials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png

It is also not a secular country by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Irreligion

This being said, I agree completely about the bet on time and the nuclear deal being a wise options.

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The state says it is Muslim but what else are they going to say


An independent survey found differently.

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith while 1.5% said they were Christian.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/iran-secular-shift-gamaan.html

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This is the director of the outfit that did that "independent" survey:

https://x.com/LadiKhanom

Her outfit is funded by the NED, the Tony Blair Institute and the Department of State Foreign Operations.

Still think it's an independent survey?

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Yes by my own experiences it's way more reliable than the state of Iran.

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But far less reliable than the Pew Research Ctr.

It's not often that you take the neocon side in a debate. This is a good example of pinkwashing, priming liberals to endorse neocon wars of choice in the Mideast.

https://www.noirnews.org/p/gamaan-iran-polling-unreliable

Quote:

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'Ideological,' 'not scientific': Iran polling firm GAMAAN flawed, not independent
GAMAAN has extensive ties to U.S. government-funded, pro-regime change orgs, and employs unreliable survey methods that produce misleading results

The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), an influential Dutch polling firm that employs unorthodox survey methods to "extract the (real) opinions of Iranians about (sensitive) social and political topics," routinely calls itself an "independent" research foundation.

News outlets and researchers citing GAMAAN have echoed this refrain when discussing the organization's headline-grabbing findings, which portray the Iranian citizenry as far more secular and regime-critical compared to other polling research. GAMAAN asserts that its survey results can be generalized to the entire population of "literate individuals over the age of 19 residing in Iran."

However, an investigation by Noir News reveals extensive ties between GAMAAN and U.S. government-funded organizations, many of which openly advocate for regime change in Iran, casting doubt on the polling group's stated independence. Further, GAMAAN's findings are not applicable to the entire Iranian populace due to biased survey methods that lead to an unrepresentative sample, according to multiple polling experts.

"[T]hey know what they think, and they want to use the language of social science to demonstrate that those claims are actually truth. And of course, that's a problem," said Daniel Tavana, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Penn State who was a Principal Investigator for Princeton's Iran Social Survey.

"[T]hey're just ideological," Tavana said. "They are very opposed to the regime, want to embarrass the regime in whatever way they can, and are happy to say… whatever they think will most effectively do that in any given point of time, regardless of whether or not they have evidence for it."

While Iranian state-owned media has discussed some of GAMAAN's ties to Western-funded organizations and regime change proponents, and the limitations of its survey methods, Noir is the first to report the full scope of GAMAAN's numerous connections with U.S. government-funded regime change operatives, and the severity of its methodological issues.

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I realize that this view is not very popular, but all you have to look at here is the experience of previous neocon regime change operations in the region, all of which have resulted in failed states and locals being crushed, with authoritarian regimes being replaced by chaos, poverty, civil wars and destitute misery, see Syria, Iraq, Libya.

These regime change operations are marketed as being done for the betterment of these target nations, with the results always being the opposite of that. In the case of Iran it will also result in global economic destabilization, more trillions for Forever War and casualties by the tens of thousands.

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I'm not in favor of the war, not in favor of regime change. None of this is any threat to the US, but to believe that the Iranian theocracy is not a brutal, unpopular repressive regime is to ignore reality.

I must say, its been interesting to watch Trump America First! populists become George Bush neocons overnight.

SBGold said:

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Really? Where are the uprising vids?

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Exactly.

"...And when the wicked die, the people rejoice."

- Proverbs 11:10

— Ikenna Nzimora (@ronaldnzimora) July 13, 2025