Iran. Oh, the irony...

38,596 Views | 1039 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by DiabloWags
DiabloWags
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The Winners and Losers



BearlySane88
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BearlySane88
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PAC-10-BEAR
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BearlySane88
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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-03-05/azerbaijan-accuses-neighbor-iran-of-a-drone-attack-and-vows-to-retaliate

There's one poster here that I'm waiting for to condemn this. Interested to see how they might spin this one.
bearister
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Pistol Pete's notable quotes from today's Pentagon pressie (alliteration?).


"My feelings, as usual, we will slaughter them all."

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of our soldiers."

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die."

"Their forces committed suicide by the hundreds. ... The battle is very fierce and God made us victorious. The fighting continues."



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Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
BearlySane88
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Hell yeah. Now that's a Secretary of War.
Big C
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BearlySane88 said:

If you had been living under a brutal regime, I don't think sports facilities being destroyed is a real worry of yours

Nobody is bombing their stadiums just to ruin Iran. If you start using a building or facility for military purposes, it's going to get hit. Not sure why that needs to be explained.

I figured we bombed their stadium to get back at them for beating us in that World Cup match whenever it was. Normally, I would not condone this rationale, but when we kinda suck every four years, sometimes drastic measures are called for.

I don't even like soccer very much, but how can the United States of America be losing to these pissant countries?!?

Bombs away!
Anarchistbear
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Big C said:

BearlySane88 said:

If you had been living under a brutal regime, I don't think sports facilities being destroyed is a real worry of yours

Nobody is bombing their stadiums just to ruin Iran. If you start using a building or facility for military purposes, it's going to get hit. Not sure why that needs to be explained.

I figured we bombed their stadium to get back at them for beating us in that World Cup match whenever it was. Normally, I would not condone this rationale, but when we kinda suck every four years, sometimes drastic measures are called for.

I don't even like soccer very much, but how can the United States of America be losing to these pissant countries?!?

Bombs away!


Iran will be in the US in 3 months playing for the World Cup in LA. Be an opportune time to wipe out the Century Plaza and blame it on radical terrorists. Stuff happens
bearister
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In the 1980's I sued this guy on behalf of a client. I took his deposition. I was told at the time he was a Persian Soccer God:

Asghar Sharafi
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“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
sycasey
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bearister
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"Trump also told Axios that Israeli President Isaac Herzog must pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "today" calling Herzog "a disgrace" for failing to act over the last year.

Trump said: "Every day I talk to Bibi about the war. I want him to focus on the war and not on the f@ucking court case. I want the only pressure on Bibi to be the fighting against Iran."

Trump has been pushing for a Netanyahu pardon since last June, arguing that Netanyahu's trial on corruption charges is a "witch hunt" akin to his own legal troubles.

But today's comments which Trump raised himself, unprompted marked a dramatic escalation and direct intervention in Israel's legal system at a moment of active war."
Axios

Start a war and get a…..





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“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
BearlySane88
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I've said this before and will say it again, it's absolutely heartbreaking if it's true that so many children died.

That being said, this is such terrible reporting. I'm not saying it wasn't the US but they can't even get to the site to inspect it, they have no evidence of what type of munition hit the school, literally no evidence besides an expert they describe as anti Trump in the article. Awful journalism even if it ends up being true.
PAC-10-BEAR
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Pay attention to the words...

First it was an "All Girls School with 146 Children and 14 staff killed"

Now it's "Iranian School with 175 PEOPLE, mostly children"
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

I agree with your comment that the action against Iran is different circumstances than led to the Irag war; hence, my qualified language about any type of reimbursement. There is a lot of discussion about this being a war at Israel's request, but if you look at who benefits if Iran goes away as a player in the region, the primary beneficiary after Israel is Saudi Arabia, and one wonders if the Saudis were not also encouraging this action big time, and thus may have committed to financially support this effort. Just speculation on my part, I have no specific knowledge.


Russia has to be a big beneficiary just from higher gas prices


True, also there is no way you can sanction their oil sales, and they're no longer sell their oil at a discount. As well the GCC produce a lot of fertilizer, aluminum, concrete, petrochemicals that are being shut down, and Russia also is a leader in those fields.
Anarchistbear
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Place blame where it belongs, AI Claude killed the girls
Cal88
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BearlySane88 said:

If you had been living under a brutal regime, I don't think sports facilities being destroyed is a real worry of yours

Nobody is bombing their stadiums just to ruin Iran. If you start using a building or facility for military purposes, it's going to get hit. Not sure why that needs to be explained.


Honestly, you're a bit naive there, it's definitely more about ignorance here, and ignorance as in prejudice against middle eastern people. That prejudice is not necessarily equivalent to pure racism, more about orientalism, if you're familiar with that term, coined by Columbia prof Edward Said, the belief that these poor brown people have to be saved, and that they yearn to live in a western lifestyle.

I strongly recommend watching this Rick Steves travel special. he's kind of a sensible traveler and cultural explorer, what you will learn from this travel capsule is more real than your occasional interaction with expats, almost all of whom are secular liberals, or your MAGA compliant online sources:




Here's the deal, Iran was never bombed in its entire modern history, save for its western border during the war with Iraq in the 1980s. It's a fairly normal society with normal urban layouts including schools, stadiums, hospitals built for their normal functions, not some secret military bases a la Tora Bora.

The intent behind bombing hospitals, schools, stadiums etc is to degrade the country's economy and social structures and create the kind of chaos, poverty and lack of government, a power vacuum that will facilitate regime change and the balkanization of Iran along ethnic lines. That formula was already done in Libya, Syria, Sudan, Iraq.
BearlySane88
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Yeah this is your worst take on me yet. I am prejudice against no group of people, just idiots of all origin.

I was once engaged to a Persian. I was raised in a Persian preschool and community. I spoke Farsi before English. Stop making assumptions about people when you have no idea what their background or life experiences are.
Anarchistbear
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US has lifted sanctions on Russian oil bound for India
Cal88
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BearlySane88 said:

Yeah this is your worst take on me yet. I am prejudice against no group of people, just idiots of all origin.

I was once engaged to a Persian. I was raised in a Persian preschool and community. I spoke Farsi before English. Stop making assumptions about people when you have no idea what their background or life experiences are.


You've already mentioned that you had a Persian boyfriend/girlfriend, I am aware of that.

I guess you must have grown up in LA where there is a large Persian community. I have pointed out several times already the difference between Iranian expats, most of whom left after the fall of the Shah in the late 70s and grown up in the States, and locals. I brought the comparison with the Vietnamese expat experience, which is very similar to the Iranian one. Iran proper is far more religious and conservative than Irangeles.

The orientalist aspect here is that you think Iran would be a better country completely westernized and need to be culturally liberated from their traditional ways, and that the US/Israel come in into Iran with good intentions, to create a thriving liberal democracy. Well based on the many other invasions in Iraq, Syria, Libya etc, the US invasion turned out to be catastrophic and most people were worse off than with the previous regime.

Bombing schools, stadiums and hospitals is not going to liberate them, this is straight up from the Vietnam War ethos of "bombing the village to save it". The whole orientalist perspective on Iran is also reminiscent of a famous quote from Kubrik's Full Metal Jacket by a GI stating "we are here to help the Vietnamese, because inside every g..k there is an American trying to get out".
BearlySane88
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Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:

Yeah this is your worst take on me yet. I am prejudice against no group of people, just idiots of all origin.

I was once engaged to a Persian. I was raised in a Persian preschool and community. I spoke Farsi before English. Stop making assumptions about people when you have no idea what their background or life experiences are.


You've already mentioned that you had a Persian boyfriend/girlfriend, I am aware of that.

I guess you must have grown up in LA where there is a large Persian community. I have pointed out several times already the difference between Iranian expats, most of whom left after the fall of the Shah in the late 70s and grown up in the States, and locals. I brought the comparison with the Vietnamese expat experience, which is very similar to the Iranian one. Iran proper is far more religious and conservative than Irangeles.


While I almost always disagree with what you say, you usually have relatively well intentioned takes. This wasn't one of them.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

BAPCO Refinery.
267,000 bpd.

There was also a drone attack on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, the company's largest.
There was no reported damage this morning.




Knock out global refineries with drones, start a global recession as payback. Not a bad strategy.

Trump's economy now.
concordtom
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wifeisafurd said:

You hit on a big issue in legal circles and jurisprudence classes when you said the Constitution was dead, which is does the Constitution evolve with the times? There are two schools of thought, both represented on the current SCOTUS.

There is originalism which fixes meaning to the constitution's text's public understanding at ratification, promoting stability. Gorsuch is a great example. Whether a layman agrees with his approach may depend on the issue. For example, the folks that generally left liked his concurrence when he voted against tariffs, even if the other justices in the majority didn't.

Living constitutionalism argues the document evolves with societal values and practicality, allowing for adaptation. Kagan probably is the best example of that. When it comes to the military action the courts have argued that the executive branch can act with greater speed, secrecy, and unity, which is necessary for responding to modern threats and warfare which require much more immediate action than threats in the 1700s. The other theme from living constitutional types is that Presidents have consistently engaged in military operations without formal congressional declarations (e.g., Korea, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Serbia), creating a precedent that courts should not overturn.

I also might point out that this was Congressional action to not limit the President that just occurred, so it hard to argue that Congressional will is being thwarted.


You might call it congressional will.
I'd call it the congressional lap puppy.

When did congress do anything their party's leader didn't want.

Barf!

Dead bc the objective was vigorous debate and conscientious votes - not uniform head nodding.

3 co-equal branches?
It's frustrating.
Cal88
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PAC-10-BEAR said:



Pay attention to the words...

First it was an "All Girls School with 146 Children and 14 staff killed"

Now it's "Iranian School with 175 PEOPLE, mostly children"


It was a girls school with around 250 girls age 7 to 12, and staff commensurate with that student population. Your point above about the wording is pointless, as if a dozen fewer or more dead children makes this bombing any different.

There is a better description of the bombing and its circumstances in a new Al Jazeera article if you want to go deeper into the details and compare their story, which is not much more different than that of the Guardian, only more detailed, with better photography and time lapse. It establishes that the school had been separated from the military compound.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab-girls-school-strike-as-israel-us-deny-involvement
concordtom
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sycasey said:

chazzed said:

sycasey said:



We need more information here, really, so take the tweet below with a grain of salt.



Uh oh!



Maybe it's a midterms thang.
Big C
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concordtom said:

sycasey said:

chazzed said:

sycasey said:



We need more information here, really, so take the tweet below with a grain of salt.



Uh oh!



Maybe it's a midterms thang.

I'm thinking the only way this "war" doesn't last past the midterm elections is if there's some sort of miracle and the Iranian people rise up and create a new, America-friendly government. Something that's pretty much never happened in a situation like this.

Because if it ends in the next six months and the result is sub-optimal, Trump is screwed in November.
Cal88
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Big C said:

concordtom said:

sycasey said:

chazzed said:

sycasey said:



We need more information here, really, so take the tweet below with a grain of salt.



Uh oh!



Maybe it's a midterms thang.

I'm thinking the only way this "war" doesn't last past the midterm elections is if there's some sort of miracle and the Iranian people rise up and create a new, America-friendly government. Something that's pretty much never happened in a situation like this.

Because if it ends in the next six months and the result is sub-optimal, Trump is screwed in November.


We're just another dozen or two school bombings of making this happen! Come on Bibi and Heggie!
Cal88
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The Saudis and Emiratis considering pulling out of the Trump megainvestment deals because their countries are being destroyed by Trump's war of choice.

Look for Japan, S Korea and other countries hurt by the ongoing oil shock to do the same.

wifeisafurd
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Anarchistbear said:

Place blame where it belongs, AI Claude killed the girls

You probably thought you were being funny, but you could be right.

The NYT ordered new satellite imagery from the commercial provider Planet Labs. It showed the area was hit by six rockets fired by the US, one which hit the school, and five which hit the adjacent military installations.

Commercial satellites are not equipped with sensors that determine where the rockets were aimed. Contrast that with the use of AI and satellites in US military defense systems that can determine the flight when someone shoots a rocket or missile and then sends out something to intercept the incoming projectile.

The article quotes Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the U.S. Air Force and was a senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon, He reviewed the commercial satellite images and concluded that all of the buildings, including the school, had been hit with "picture perfect" target strikes. That probably doesn't mean what you think it means, and the NYT wants to leave it ambiguous. It means that it looks like the rockets hit where you would aim if you were shooting at the buildings, in other words were direct hits on the buildings. It doesn't mean that the rocket that hit the school was aimed at the school building. There is no way to know that for the technology employed by the NYT, and the inference that it is, is the type of journalism one can expect in these days of narrative driven journalism.

That raises two issues assuming you believe that the US Navy doesn't intend to blow-up schools. One is an intelligence failure, which like it or not happens all the time, and in fact Bryant suggests happened. AI has images of stuff, picks out the target, and then when directed shoots rockets at its selected targets. It doesn't mean AI has all the most up to date images in the world or that it correctly picks the correct images out of the billions of images on line. But militaries (and just not the US) routinely have to rely on bad or imprecise intelligence when bombing thousands of targets a day.

The other weird thing my Space X friends tell me can happen is that modern missiles don't always go where they were originally aimed. While there are things such as defective missile systems (just look at Iran which has a hard time controlling where its missiles go) that is much more unlikely with US rockets and missiles. Modern US guided military rockets and missiles can adjust their trajectory after launch to hit targets, even if the target moves or the initial aim was off. They use internal guidance systems, such as GPS, radar, laser designation, or infrared sensors, to actuate fins or vector thrust, allowing them to redirect in flight. The systems don't operate at 100% effectiveness, and they can lock on to different targets that cross their path (which also can be the cause of friendly fire accidents). That would explain the direct hit, assuming that the initial target wasn't bad in the first place (see the prior paragrah).

Said it before, but the arrogance to think the US or any other military can run a perfectly sanitary war and not hit civilians is dangerous. Sometimes the military does know civilians are in the target area and shoots intentionally because they military target is just to high value. Hard to conclude the subject installation in question was such a target without further information. Nevertheless, the law professors should save their idiotic conclusions about violating international law for the ivory tower, because the real world doesn't function that way. Then there is collateral damage that occurs because a military target is adjacent to or in civilian rich area, and sheet happens. Using in AI is just replacing AI error for human error. You don't want civilian casualties, don't have a war.

wifeisafurd
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Cal88 said:

The Saudis and Emiratis considering pulling out of the Trump megainvestment deals because their countries are being destroyed by Trump's war of choice.

Look for Japan, S Korea and other countries hurt by the ongoing oil shock to do the same.



This is bad logic. The biggest beneficiaries of higher oil prices and no competition from Iran will be other oil producing countries. The Saudis and Emirates say thanks. Any rumblings are for PR purposes only. What you suggest happening has about as much chances of occurring as the war being halted by the War Powers Act.
Cal88
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wifeisafurd said:

Anarchistbear said:

Place blame where it belongs, AI Claude killed the girls

You probably thought you were being funny, but you could be right.

The NYT ordered new satellite imagery from the commercial provider Planet Labs. It showed the area was hit by six rockets fired by the US, one which hit the school, and five which hit the adjacent military installations.

Commercial satellites are not equipped with sensors that determine where the rockets were aimed. Contrast that with the use of AI and satellites in US military defense systems that can determine the flight when someone shoots a rocket or missile and then sends out something to intercept the incoming projectile.

The article quotes Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the U.S. Air Force and was a senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon, He reviewed the commercial satellite images and concluded that all of the buildings, including the school, had been hit with "picture perfect" target strikes. That probably doesn't mean what you think it means, and the NYT wants to leave it ambiguous. It means that it looks like the rockets hit where you would aim if you were shooting at the buildings, in other words were direct hits on the buildings. It doesn't mean that the rocket that hit the school was aimed at the school building. There is no way to know that for the technology employed by the NYT, and the inference that it is, is the type of journalism one can expect in these days of narrative driven journalism.

That raises two issues assuming you believe that the US Navy doesn't intend to blow-up schools. One is an intelligence failure, which like it or not happens all the time, and in fact Bryant suggests happened. AI has images of stuff, picks out the target, and then when directed shoots rockets at its selected targets. It doesn't mean AI has all the most up to date images in the world or that it correctly picks the correct images out of the billions of images on line. But militaries (and just not the US) routinely have to rely on bad or imprecise intelligence when bombing thousands of targets a day.

The other weird thing my Space X friends tell me can happen is that modern missiles don't always go where they were originally aimed. While there are things such as defective missile systems (just look at Iran which has a hard time controlling where its missiles go) that is much more unlikely with US rockets and missiles. Modern US guided military rockets and missiles can adjust their trajectory after launch to hit targets, even if the target moves or the initial aim was off. They use internal guidance systems, such as GPS, radar, laser designation, or infrared sensors, to actuate fins or vector thrust, allowing them to redirect in flight. The systems don't operate at 100% effectiveness, and they can lock on to different targets that cross their path (which also can be the cause of friendly fire accidents). That would explain the direct hit, assuming that the initial target wasn't bad in the first place (see the prior paragrah).

Said it before, but the arrogance to think the US or any other military can run a perfectly sanitary war and not hit civilians is dangerous. Sometimes the military does know civilians are in the target area and shoots intentionally because they military target is just to high value. Hard to conclude the subject installation in question was such a target without further information. Nevertheless, the law professors should save their idiotic conclusions about violating international law for the ivory tower, because the real world doesn't function that way. Then there is collateral damage that occurs because a military target is adjacent to or in civilian rich area, and sheet happens. Using in AI is just replacing AI error for human error. You don't want civilian casualties, don't have a war.


First of all, this is a war of choice.

Second, we don't really care about civilian casualties, in Afghanistan for example, 90% of drone strike casualties were civilians. 90%!

Quote:

Key Whistleblowers and Revelations
  • Daniel Hale (USAF): A former Air Force intelligence analyst, Hale leaked classified documents to The Intercept in 2014, revealing that U.S. drone strikes in Afghanistan and other regions often resulted in high civilian casualties. The "Drone Papers" exposed that during a five-month period (20122013), nearly 90% of people killed in these airstrikes were not the intended targets. Hale was sentenced to 45 months in prison in 2021.


Cal88
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Cal88
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dajo9
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Just as Iran was the winner of the Republicans War on Iraq, I suspect Russia will be the winner of the Republicans Epstein Wars
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
Cal88
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Russia is going to have a big budget surplus this year, they are now selling oil to India at $90/b, whereas before India was buying it at a steep discount around $50/b. By Spring those prices could push well beyond $100/b if Trump doesn't call the whole thing off. Oil shock double digit US inflation (see 1973) ahead this Summer might force his hand.
 
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