Iran. Oh, the irony...

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cal83dls79
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:28p, 6/18/26
Cal88 said:

it's part of the new Fox segment, "Stooges and Friends"
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Big C
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In reply to oski003 • 1:59p, 6/18/26
oski003 said:
Big C said:
Cal88 said:
BearlySane88 said:


Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal. If their offensive capabilities had really been diminished, Trump would have never signed what is a very favorable deal for Iran. Also, Iran sits on a territory with an estimated $27 trillion in natural resources, they can rebuild their economy.

Look, I'm all for embellishing and spinning this MOU as this was the best outcome under the circumstances, I won't bash Trump for signing it, to the contrary, but let's not fool ourselves here.


Ridiculous, desperately-partisan attempt at spin by some guy named Jared Howe.

Iran's naval and air fleets... lol.

People tend to look at these kinds of situations transactionally (what did we get / what did they get, etc.), but there is an ideological, world diplomacy perspective that might be even more important:

Trump, without seeking the advance buy-in of Congress, the American people, our allies or the United Nations (don't laugh, the UN used to be a thing) launched an attack on a sovereign nation, which resulted in the death (apparently intentional) of 50 of that nation's leaders.

If "we" can do that to another country, seemingly without sufficient reason, doesn't that justify another country doing that to us, just because they want to and they can? (And don't think it would be that difficult: It may be hard to get within 200 yards of the White House or the Capitol, but it isn't that hard to get within 2000 yards. Just go buy some fancy weapons on the black market that would fit in a flatbed truck and... )

We are fostering a world in which every country is free to act as an independent thug. When you are at the top of the heap of nations, you want to discourage those lower on the totem pole from acting asymmetrically, not encourage it.

Obviously, the above argument is a bit too abstract to sway too many American voters (who don't even understand why January 6th and election-denying are bad), but it is important nonetheless.


If Russia were to attack us, would it be seemingly without sufficient reason? We are in a proxy war with them, just like Iran has been in a proxy war with our allies in the region.

Yes, without sufficient reason, and this is why we've been very prudent in the ways we've helped Ukraine (no boots on ground, not selling them our best stuff, etc.).

As I look at the world right now, the only attack I can justify would be Ukraine attacking Russia. Well, I suppose Venezuela could justify an attack on the US, for all the good it would do them. I know if a country did that to our leader (even Trump), that would constitute sufficient reason for some sort of attack (or at least "response").

Most of the military conflicts I can think of this century seem unnecessary. People need to chill out.
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Anarchistbear
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2:18p, 6/18/26


JD!
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cal83dls79
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 3:11p, 6/18/26
BearlySane88 said:
Dwight Way said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
Dwight Way said:
I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran

The Iranian regime is now stronger than it has ever been because of Trump


This is an absolutely baseless and untrue statement.

Why would his statement be "baseless and untrue" when Iran just showed the world that it can disrupt and cripple the world economy by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz to their fullest advantage?

If that doesn't make them stronger on the world stage, I don't know what does.

Trump had no answer for the Strait.
And clearly there was never a realistic plan to keep it open given how problematic that would be.

There are a number of very good reasons why IRAN could very well come out of this stronger.
To simply dismiss or discount the power that they held over the world economy would be terribly naive.







I'm not discounting anything. I'm arguing that they are more powerful than before. Iran's ability to cause economic pain does not necessarily mean it is stronger militarily, economically, or politically. A country can retain the capacity to disrupt while simultaneously suffering major losses elsewhere.

Iran exports much of its own oil through the Gulf. A prolonged closure would damage Iran's economy and alienate countries such as China that have economic ties to Iranian energy exports.

Many analysts argue Iran can disrupt shipping temporarily but would struggle to keep the Strait closed indefinitely against a determined multinational naval response.


There never was multinational naval response.
That never happened, that's a problem
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dajo9
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4:49p, 6/18/26
Iran to authorize passage through the Strait of Hormuz using it's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-strait-authority-to-facilitate-ships-passage-through-hormuz-supreme-nsc-says/
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bearister
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5:01p, 6/18/26
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

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dajo9
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5:03p, 6/18/26
You know the Europeans were laughing at Trump when they offered up Versailles to sign the treaty. Versailles was the location of the worst peace treaty in world history.
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Big C
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5:13p, 6/18/26

"$300 billion reconstruction and economic development program for Iran" (PBS NewsHour)

This reminds me of the wall we were going to build at the US-Mexico border: " ... and Mexico's going to pay for it."

Except in reverse.
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chazzed
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In reply to dajo9 • 5:22p, 6/18/26
dajo9 said:
You know the Europeans were laughing at Trump when they offered up Versailles to sign the treaty. Versailles was the location of the worst peace treaty in world history.


How does one differentiate that laughter from the 24/7 laughter?
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chazzed
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5:41p, 6/18/26
If accurate, this is an interesting development.

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dajo9
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In reply to chazzed • 5:45p, 6/18/26
chazzed said:
If accurate, this is an interesting development.



The next steps of the agreement will never happen. What has happened is sanctions are removed, Iran gets their money that was frozen, and in 60 days Iran will charge fees to pass the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gets nothing.
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to chazzed • 5:50p, 6/18/26
chazzed said:
If accurate, this is an interesting development.



I'm not sure either side has an incentive to wrap up the 60 days. Trump doesn't want to rattle markets or midterms and Iran can ship oil and unfreeze assets.
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Big C
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In reply to chazzed • 6:46p, 6/18/26
chazzed said:
If accurate, this is an interesting development.


Now that Iran knows we're willing to be screwed, they want to see how far they can go.

the art of the deal
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In reply to bearister • 7:25p, 6/18/26
bearister said:

This MOU is some Neville Chamberlin bullshyte. What did we accomplish? What was the cost to our allies in the Middle East and to the U.S. Is Iran stronger than before. What is the status of the Iranian missile and nuclear programs? Regime change? Is this deal any better than the JCPOA? What happens the next time Israel decides to bomb on send troops to Lebanon or Iran?
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Tedhead94 the II
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 11:00p, 6/18/26
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah
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dajo9
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1:37a, 6/19/26
A mostly overlooked clause in the deal with Iran is Trump agreed to turn the color of the Lincoln Reflecting Pool to Iranian green
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dajo9
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4:37a, 6/19/26
Phase 2 of the Iran deal has already fallen apart. We are all on Israel's leash now.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-oil-june-19-2026-635ad6f41610df8355d24cc301a75fc4
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Tedhead94 the II • 6:13a, 6/19/26
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.
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BearNIt
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:13a, 6/19/26
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.

Yes we bombed the crap out of Iran and what did we get? Iran is in a stronger position than when Col Bone Spur started this cluster&@#$ of an operation. Iran can now cut off a 25% of the world"s oil causing fuel prices to spike which puts enormous pressure on not only consumers in the U.S. but all over the world. Iran will now charge additional monies to tankers and ships passing through the straits. Iran through the U.S. can now exert influence over the actions of Israel such as the U.S.telling Israel to stop bombing Lebanon so some sort of deal can be reached. Last time I looked the Iranian missile and nuclear programs which we were told was obliterated are still huge issues that are not settled. Iran is going to get access to over $400 billion in investments and returned Iranian assets. Those assets would never be released unless the U.S. told those holding those assets it was okay to return them to Iran. Sanctions will be lifted and Iran will be able to sell oil. Iran is stronger than they were before the war and I haven't even touched on what the war did to relations to our allies in the Middle East and Israel. You don't have to win the fight, to win the war, just ask Vietnam
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BearlySane88
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In reply to BearNIt • 8:16a, 6/19/26
We're just repeating the same things at this point. Clearly I disagree as I've laid out repeatedly in different posts. Time will tell how this deal works out, I'd bet on it being favorable to the US and stability in the ME region.
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oski003
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In reply to BearNIt • 8:26a, 6/19/26
BearNIt said:
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.

Yes we bombed the crap out of Iran and what did we get? Iran is in a stronger position than when Col Bone Spur started this cluster&@#$ of an operation. Iran can now cut off a 25% of the world"s oil causing fuel prices to spike which puts enormous pressure on not only consumers in the U.S. but all over the world. Iran will now charge additional monies to tankers and ships passing through the straits. Iran through the U.S. can now exert influence over the actions of Israel such as the U.S.telling Israel to stop bombing Lebanon so some sort of deal can be reached. Last time I looked the Iranian missile and nuclear programs which we were told was obliterated are still huge issues that are not settled. Iran is going to get access to over $400 billion in investments and returned Iranian assets. Those assets would never be released unless the U.S. told those holding those assets it was okay to return them to Iran. Sanctions will be lifted and Iran will be able to sell oil. Iran is stronger than they were before the war and I haven't even touched on what the war did to relations to our allies in the Middle East and Israel. You don't have to win the fight, to win the war, just ask Vietnam


What ability has manifested whereas Iran can now suddenly cut off 25% of the world's oil? If they have this ability now, they certainly had it a year ago.
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Dwight Way
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8:36a, 6/19/26
Trump explains why he cut a deal with Iran . . .

"These fools who think I haven't been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are 'tumbling' down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid," he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.

Without the deal, "the alternative would be a world-wide depression," Mr. Trump said at his Wednesday news conference. In so many words the President said the Iranians had him over a barrelof oil. If he had fought on, the market "would go down at levels that nobody ever saw before, maybe except for 1929," he said. "The one President I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover."

There you have it.
Trump was driven by fear of high oil prices and a falling stock market going into the midterm elections.
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Tedhead94 the II
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:48a, 6/19/26
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.


1) Stop getting bombed
2) $24 billion in cash
3) $300 billion for rebuilding
4) Joint Control of shipping lanes
5) Lifting of sanctions
6) Access to global markets

I SURRENDER!!!!
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Tedhead94 the II • 8:54a, 6/19/26
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.


1) Stop getting bombed
2) $24 billion in cash
3) $300 billion for rebuilding
4) Joint Control of shipping lanes
5) Lifting of sanctions
6) Access to global markets

I SURRENDER!!!!


If they don't do as told, they get nothing. Not exactly the type of surrender you're portraying.
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BearNIt
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In reply to oski003 • 8:55a, 6/19/26
oski003 said:
BearNIt said:
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.

Yes we bombed the crap out of Iran and what did we get? Iran is in a stronger position than when Col Bone Spur started this cluster&@#$ of an operation. Iran can now cut off a 25% of the world"s oil causing fuel prices to spike which puts enormous pressure on not only consumers in the U.S. but all over the world. Iran will now charge additional monies to tankers and ships passing through the straits. Iran through the U.S. can now exert influence over the actions of Israel such as the U.S.telling Israel to stop bombing Lebanon so some sort of deal can be reached. Last time I looked the Iranian missile and nuclear programs which we were told was obliterated are still huge issues that are not settled. Iran is going to get access to over $400 billion in investments and returned Iranian assets. Those assets would never be released unless the U.S. told those holding those assets it was okay to return them to Iran. Sanctions will be lifted and Iran will be able to sell oil. Iran is stronger than they were before the war and I haven't even touched on what the war did to relations to our allies in the Middle East and Israel. You don't have to win the fight, to win the war, just ask Vietnam


What ability has manifested whereas Iran can now suddenly cut off 25% of the world's oil? If they have this ability now, they certainly had it a year ago.

Point taken, I will be more precise, Iran disrupted 20% of the World's daily oil supply and LNG supplies. Tankers avoided the Straits like the plague and add the response by the U.S.,, shipping was at a standstill. I spoke to a family friend in Nortthern California and he was getting hammered by diesel and fertilizer prices which is a function of the lack of ships moving in and out of the strait. We are all getting hammered by the increase in fuel prices and hopefully they go down
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dajo9
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5:47a, 6/20/26
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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cal83dls79
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In reply to dajo9 • 6:46a, 6/20/26
dajo9 said:
lots to unpack here. Thanks for sharing. Needed a chuckle.
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bearister
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7:23a, 6/20/26
"Bulletin: Iran's joint military command says on state TV that the Strait of Hormuz is closed just three days after it reopened and cites Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

But the U.S. military isn't seeing any movement on the ground that indicates the strait is closing, a senior U.S. defense official tells Axios' Barak Ravid."
Axios
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Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

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Dwight Way
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:36a, 6/20/26
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
Tedhead94 the II said:
BearlySane88 said:
So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?


Yeah. I do. Because we are capitulating. Iran is in a stronger position than they were before we fired a shot at them. End of conversation. If you think differently, seek help. Was it a good idea to capitulate, probably yeah. Is the deal we have now worse than the previous deal, definitely yeah = Was this a stupid arse decision in the first place? Also easy answer: yeah


No we aren't capitulating and no Iran isn't in a stronger position and if you think differently, seek help. You've been trained to hate everything Trump does. Don't like that he attacked Iran, fine but don't turn this deal into something it isn't. Iran is weaker militarily now than they have been, they have no path to a nuke, and the entire region is even more against them than ever.


1) Stop getting bombed
2) $24 billion in cash
3) $300 billion for rebuilding
4) Joint Control of shipping lanes
5) Lifting of sanctions
6) Access to global markets

I SURRENDER!!!!


If they don't do as told, they get nothing. Not exactly the type of surrender you're portraying.


This isn't even remotely true.
Your statement is 100% false.

JD Vance said the same thing and he doesn't appear to know what Point #10 of the MOU says.

The MOU commits the U.S. to give substantial sanctions relief up front, and throughout negotiations, though the regime has made no serious concessions on nuclear matters.

Consider the deal's Point #10:

"The United States of America undertakes that immediately after the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Oil sanctions would be lifted for at least the 60-day period of negotiations, which Iran will try to extend. Trump has already said he's open to an extension, and he has reason to agree rather than risk the collapse of talks and closure of the Strait in advance of midterms.

Even Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear deal didn't fully waive oil sanctions until after inspectors verified that Iran had implemented its nuclear commitments. This memorandum and the lifting of the U.S. blockadethrough which several million barrels of Iranian crude have since passedwill allow Iranian oil exports worth billions of dollars a month.

And lifting related banking sanctions could compound the damage if it allows the regime to repatriate oil revenue. A broad waiver would rescue the regime financially and blow a hole that is not easily repaired through the U.S. sanctions wall.

"If they don't do as told, they get nothing" . . . is 100% FALSE.








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