Iran. Oh, the irony...

256,601 Views | 2786 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Cal88
BearlySane88
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chazzed
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dajo9 said:

chazzed said:

Even more lying by the administration.




Trump has consistently lied throughout his war. No reason to believe anything he says.


When you're right, you're right.

sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

I cannot describe the degree to which I hate this MOU. Trump got bent over without getting a beer first. You cannot put soldiers lives at risk to end up with this.

The alternative here is a lot more soldiers (and even more civilian) lives and a global economic crisis.

The real mistake was starting the war in the first place and getting the Strait of Hormuz blocked up as a result. Now that these are the circumstances, it's probably best to just cut bait right now even if the deal we're getting is going to suck.

It was foolish to think we could topple Iran's regime with military strikes, and yes Trump has to own that.


Yes indeed, that was my position before the war, it was a huge mistake. This being said, the MOU looks like the best option at this point, realistically the alternatives being orders of magnitude worse. Ironically enough, you would also agree with me on Ukraine if your starting point also was a realistic one.

The difference in Ukraine is that we don't have to make the deal, the Russians and Ukrainians do. If either party doesn't want to stop fighting then we can't make them. In Iran it's us doing it, so we can cut a deal to stop.

Yes yes, I know all of the arguments for why the US is really responsible for starting the Ukraine War. As I have previously stated, I don't agree.


Ukraine can't fight without NATO.

As well in Iran, Israel can play spoiler leveraging its political influence over the US.

Yeah and if the rest of NATO wants to keep helping Ukraine (and it appears they do) we can't stop that either. Ukraine could also just revert to guerrilla warfare or other tactics. The war wouldn't just end because we pulled support. But I know, you want Russia to win.

Israel's political influence seems to clearly be waning in the US, and anyway that is not direct control, that is an attempt at persuasion.
bearister
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smh said:

dajo9 said:

This is a document of American defeat unparalleled since the Vietnam War. A complete regression from where Obama / Biden left things.

dunno, you may be right. but in the fullness of time America's retreat from Vietnam was the best achievable outcome.
signed, stationed 2 years over there (early 70s)


"Capturing and pacifying Iran's major urban centers like Tehran would require an estimated 600,000 soldiers. This is roughly equivalent to the peak U.S. deployment during the Vietnam War."
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BearlySane88
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sycasey
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Big C
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As many have posted, we (especially Trump, what with the mid-terms approaching) are probably better off bending over and accepting this lousy deal, as opposed to continuing to slog.

But it is vital to note (as many have) that we will now be worse off than we were prior to Feb. 28th. This was a stupid, stupid idea from the get-go... and that's even before taking into account the way Trump did it (unilaterally).

We are losing any sort of international credibility we may have ever had. The best way out of this is for the next President (either party) to pin this on one guy -- an aberration -- and declare a total reset.


Few things are 100% bad, though (or 100% good): Netanyahu may be cooked. If the moderates in Israel are able to wrest control of their government, maybe I can once again admit to being pro-Israel without embarrassment.
dajo9
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Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

I cannot describe the degree to which I hate this MOU. Trump got bent over without getting a beer first. You cannot put soldiers lives at risk to end up with this.

The alternative here is a lot more soldiers (and even more civilian) lives and a global economic crisis.

I get that point of view. But consider: the "reported" MOU allows Iran to retain the status quo of their nuclear program. Iran promises not to build or procure nukes (we have to trust their promise not to build/buy nukes...which they were already breaking under JCOP). Iran will use "best efforts" to open the straight of Hormutz and they are disallowed from charging fees for 30 days. Support for regional terrorists isn't addressed. Iran's drone and missile programs are not addressed. What happened to the US providing all medical grade nuke materials forever? What happened to SoH being international waters and fees never being allowed? What happened to Iran giving up their nuke program? etc, etc, etc. This is a near total capitulation by the US. And we put people's lives in danger for this? Beyond absurd. F*** Trump.


Lol

tequila has TDS
Cal88 has TDS


Seriously, why rail on Trump if today he stops digging and chooses a bad deal over a catastrophic alternative.



Because Trump and some of his supporters are still out there saying the war was a success. Triple Trump supporters like you need to hear it relentlessly that Trump's war was a disaster for America.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
BearlySane88
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Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

I cannot describe the degree to which I hate this MOU. Trump got bent over without getting a beer first. You cannot put soldiers lives at risk to end up with this.

The alternative here is a lot more soldiers (and even more civilian) lives and a global economic crisis.

I get that point of view. But consider: the "reported" MOU allows Iran to retain the status quo of their nuclear program. Iran promises not to build or procure nukes (we have to trust their promise not to build/buy nukes...which they were already breaking under JCOP). Iran will use "best efforts" to open the straight of Hormutz and they are disallowed from charging fees for 30 days. Support for regional terrorists isn't addressed. Iran's drone and missile programs are not addressed. What happened to the US providing all medical grade nuke materials forever? What happened to SoH being international waters and fees never being allowed? What happened to Iran giving up their nuke program? etc, etc, etc. This is a near total capitulation by the US. And we put people's lives in danger for this? Beyond absurd. F*** Trump.


Lol

tequila has TDS
Cal88 has TDS


Seriously, why rail on Trump if today he stops digging and chooses a bad deal over a catastrophic alternative.



Because Trump and some of his supporters are still out there saying the war was a success. Triple Trump supporters like you need to hear it relentlessly that Trump's war was a disaster for America.


You have to be tone deaf to not realize that I have been among Trump's harshest critics on this board in his current mandate.

Also pay attention to the neocons and Endless War advocates attacking Trump right now. They, along with those reacting on highly polarized tribal impulses have been the main critics of a pragmatic and realist settlement that avoids escalation and a global economic catastrophe.
Cal88
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BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal. If their offensive capabilities had really been diminished, Trump would have never signed what is a very favorable deal for Iran. Also, Iran sits on a territory with an estimated $27 trillion in natural resources, they can rebuild their economy.

Look, I'm all for embellishing and spinning this MOU as this was the best outcome under the circumstances, I won't bash Trump for signing it, to the contrary, but let's not fool ourselves here.

BearlySane88
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Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal.



This is some serious Iranian propaganda.
bearister
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BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal.



This is some serious Iranian propaganda.

How does one determine which side of that conflict has the most credibility?
“Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside”
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“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
BearlySane88
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bearister said:

BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal.



This is some serious Iranian propaganda.

How does one determine which side of that conflict has the most credibility?



I hear your point. The US and Israel just bombed the **** out of Iran and you logically think that 80% of their capabilities still exist? That doesn't even sound plausible. Back that up with reports that show the US can confirm 1/3 of Iranian's capabilities have been destroyed. Many other sites are buried under rubble so the assumption is they are destroyed but it can't be confirmed.

This was from March.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/


Cal88
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AI Overview

Classified U.S. and allied intelligence assessments from mid-2026 indicate that despite extensive military campaigns, Iran has successfully preserved or quickly rebuilt a vast portion of its long-range strike capabilities, retaining roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles and a large fraction of its drone fleet. [1, 2]
The intelligence regarding Iran's missile and drone arsenals highlights the following specific capabilities and recovery metrics:
  • Missiles and Launchers: U.S. intelligence officials estimate that Iran still controls approximately \(70\%\) of its prewar missile inventory, including both ballistic and cruise missiles. Following the April 8 ceasefire, Iran was able to recover a significant amount of launch infrastructure, bringing its operational mobile launchers to around \(60\%\) to \(70\%\) of prewar levels. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Underground Facilities: Intelligence reports show that Iran has regained operational access to nearly \(90\%\) of its nationwide underground missile storage and launch facilities. For example, along the strategic Strait of Hormuz, 30 out of 33 Iranian missile sites are assessed to be partially or fully operational. [1, 2, 3]
  • Drone Assets: Estimates vary due to differing operational assessments by U.S. and Israeli military officials, but the consensus shows that Iran still retains at least \(40\%\) of its attack drone capabilities. Following the spring 2026 truce, Tehran has actively resumed and expanded its drone and ballistic missile manufacturing, restocking their reserves with freshly produced munitions, including assistance from foreign dual-use technology. [1, 2, 4]
BearlySane88
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So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?
Big C
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Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal. If their offensive capabilities had really been diminished, Trump would have never signed what is a very favorable deal for Iran. Also, Iran sits on a territory with an estimated $27 trillion in natural resources, they can rebuild their economy.

Look, I'm all for embellishing and spinning this MOU as this was the best outcome under the circumstances, I won't bash Trump for signing it, to the contrary, but let's not fool ourselves here.



Ridiculous, desperately-partisan attempt at spin by some guy named Jared Howe.

Iran's naval and air fleets... lol.

People tend to look at these kinds of situations transactionally (what did we get / what did they get, etc.), but there is an ideological, world diplomacy perspective that might be even more important:

Trump, without seeking the advance buy-in of Congress, the American people, our allies or the United Nations (don't laugh, the UN used to be a thing) launched an attack on a sovereign nation, which resulted in the death (apparently intentional) of 50 of that nation's leaders.

If "we" can do that to another country, seemingly without sufficient reason, doesn't that justify another country doing that to us, just because they want to and they can? (And don't think it would be that difficult: It may be hard to get within 200 yards of the White House or the Capitol, but it isn't that hard to get within 2000 yards. Just go buy some fancy weapons on the black market that would fit in a flatbed truck and... )

We are fostering a world in which every country is free to act as an independent thug. When you are at the top of the heap of nations, you want to discourage those lower on the totem pole from acting asymmetrically, not encourage it.

Obviously, the above argument is a bit too abstract to sway too many American voters (who don't even understand why January 6th and election-denying are bad), but it is important nonetheless.
oski003
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal. If their offensive capabilities had really been diminished, Trump would have never signed what is a very favorable deal for Iran. Also, Iran sits on a territory with an estimated $27 trillion in natural resources, they can rebuild their economy.

Look, I'm all for embellishing and spinning this MOU as this was the best outcome under the circumstances, I won't bash Trump for signing it, to the contrary, but let's not fool ourselves here.



Ridiculous, desperately-partisan attempt at spin by some guy named Jared Howe.

Iran's naval and air fleets... lol.

People tend to look at these kinds of situations transactionally (what did we get / what did they get, etc.), but there is an ideological, world diplomacy perspective that might be even more important:

Trump, without seeking the advance buy-in of Congress, the American people, our allies or the United Nations (don't laugh, the UN used to be a thing) launched an attack on a sovereign nation, which resulted in the death (apparently intentional) of 50 of that nation's leaders.

If "we" can do that to another country, seemingly without sufficient reason, doesn't that justify another country doing that to us, just because they want to and they can? (And don't think it would be that difficult: It may be hard to get within 200 yards of the White House or the Capitol, but it isn't that hard to get within 2000 yards. Just go buy some fancy weapons on the black market that would fit in a flatbed truck and... )

We are fostering a world in which every country is free to act as an independent thug. When you are at the top of the heap of nations, you want to discourage those lower on the totem pole from acting asymmetrically, not encourage it.

Obviously, the above argument is a bit too abstract to sway too many American voters (who don't even understand why January 6th and election-denying are bad), but it is important nonetheless.


If Russia were to attack us, would it be seemingly without sufficient reason? We are in a proxy war with them, just like Iran has been in a proxy war with our allies in the region.
BearlySane88
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

BearlySane88 said:




Iran has retained 80% of its main offensive military force, its missile and drone arsenal. If their offensive capabilities had really been diminished, Trump would have never signed what is a very favorable deal for Iran. Also, Iran sits on a territory with an estimated $27 trillion in natural resources, they can rebuild their economy.

Look, I'm all for embellishing and spinning this MOU as this was the best outcome under the circumstances, I won't bash Trump for signing it, to the contrary, but let's not fool ourselves here.




Obviously, the above argument is a bit too abstract to sway too many American voters (who don't even understand why January 6th and election-denying are bad), but it is important nonetheless.


https://www.vpm.org/news/2022-10-04/politifact-va-democrats-questioned-validity-of-2016-election-but-not-how-votes

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-starlink-election-fraud-claims-blue-anon/
BearlySane88
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"Vice President JD Vance just laid it out:

- 12.5 MILLION barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz last night, highest since the conflict began.

- Gas prices below $4/gallon for the first time, and dropping further.

- Iran's nuclear program & conventional military destroyed.

- No U.S. taxpayer money going to Iran, ZERO.

- Sanctions relief & benefits only if they perform and change behavior. "
BearlySane88
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Dwight Way
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I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran
dajo9
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Dwight Way said:

I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran


The Iranian regime is now stronger than it has ever been because of Trump
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
BearlySane88
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Dwight Way said:

I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran



Bill Cassidy wants to send our sons and daughters into a forever war. Him raising alarm bells over this is one of the biggest green flags of all time.
BearlySane88
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dajo9 said:

Dwight Way said:

I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran


The Iranian regime is now stronger than it has ever been because of Trump


This is an absolutely baseless and untrue statement.
Cal88
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BearlySane88 said:

So you're already back tracking your 80% claim. The number will continue to decrease as the clean up process progresses.

I gave you a lower bound estimate of 70% from US sources. Note as well that most of the Iranian missile stockpile depletion was from their having used them up rather than their missiles being bombed out. Iran has several dozen underground "missile cities" that are very difficult to take out with conventional bombing.

Quote:

You really think the same military that got into Venezuela and out with their "leader" the way we did weren't also able to decimate Iran's military complex?

You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.
BearlySane88
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Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.
Cal88
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BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.


Dwight Way
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BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.


I don't think anyone really questions the military prowess of the United States.
That's not being questioned here.
Dwight Way
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BearlySane88 said:

dajo9 said:

Dwight Way said:

I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran


The Iranian regime is now stronger than it has ever been because of Trump


This is an absolutely baseless and untrue statement.

Why would his statement be "baseless and untrue" when Iran just showed the world that it can disrupt and cripple the world economy by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz to their fullest advantage?

If that doesn't make them stronger on the world stage, I don't know what does.

Trump had no answer for the Strait.
And clearly there was never a realistic plan to keep it open given how problematic that would be.

There are a number of very good reasons why IRAN could very well come out of this stronger.
To simply dismiss or discount the power that they held over the world economy would be terribly naive.





BearlySane88
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Dwight Way said:

BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.


I don't think anyone really questions the military prowess of the United States.
That's not being questioned here.



Then why would we doubt that the US, combined with Israel, would only be capable of destroying 20% of Iran's military complex with all of the bombs dropped?
BearlySane88
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Dwight Way said:

BearlySane88 said:

dajo9 said:

Dwight Way said:

I think there is a good chance that Iran emerges from this war as an even bigger regional power.

Sanctions lifted, 60 days of selling oil, charging a toll on the 61st day, $25 billion in unfrozen assets, potentially approaching $100 billion total in relief, etc.

Senate Republicans don't seem all that happy either:

"Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave," fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the "worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal," he wrote on the social platform X.

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal," said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump's deal with Iran


The Iranian regime is now stronger than it has ever been because of Trump


This is an absolutely baseless and untrue statement.

Why would his statement be "baseless and untrue" when Iran just showed the world that it can disrupt and cripple the world economy by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz to their fullest advantage?

If that doesn't make them stronger on the world stage, I don't know what does.

Trump had no answer for the Strait.
And clearly there was never a realistic plan to keep it open given how problematic that would be.

There are a number of very good reasons why IRAN could very well come out of this stronger.
To simply dismiss or discount the power that they held over the world economy would be terribly naive.








I'm not discounting anything. I'm arguing that they are more powerful than before. Iran's ability to cause economic pain does not necessarily mean it is stronger militarily, economically, or politically. A country can retain the capacity to disrupt while simultaneously suffering major losses elsewhere.

Iran exports much of its own oil through the Gulf. A prolonged closure would damage Iran's economy and alienate countries such as China that have economic ties to Iranian energy exports.

Many analysts argue Iran can disrupt shipping temporarily but would struggle to keep the Strait closed indefinitely against a determined multinational naval response.

Dwight Way
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BearlySane88 said:

Dwight Way said:

BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.


I don't think anyone really questions the military prowess of the United States.
That's not being questioned here.



Then why would we doubt that the US, combined with Israel, would only be capable of destroying 20% of Iran's military complex with all of the bombs dropped?


It should be readily apparent by now that IRAN is extremely good at asymetric warfare.

They've had two decades to study the defeats of the US military to their immediate east and west.
They have learned from that.

Their capital was bombed into oblivion, yet that didn't prevent them from multiple missile strikes on other nations in the region. Even Pete Hegseth misspoke when he claimed air superiority . . . only to see an F15E and an A10 get shot down within hours of each other.

BearlySane88
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Dwight Way said:

BearlySane88 said:

Dwight Way said:

BearlySane88 said:

Cal88 said:


You are showing your naivety here, no comparison whatsoever between Venezuela and Iran, drastically different geography, governments and military capabilities.


You missed my point entirely. It's not a comparison of the two places. It's to highlight our military prowess.


I don't think anyone really questions the military prowess of the United States.
That's not being questioned here.



Then why would we doubt that the US, combined with Israel, would only be capable of destroying 20% of Iran's military complex with all of the bombs dropped?


It should be readily apparent by now that IRAN is extremely good at asymetric warfare.

They've had two decades to study the defeats of the US military to their immediate east and west.
They have learned from that.

Their capital was bombed into oblivion, yet that didn't prevent them from multiple missile strikes on other nations in the region. Even Pete Hegseth misspoke when he claimed air superiority . . . only to see an F15E and an A10 get shot down within hours of each other.




You're treating the ability to inflict costs as proof of strength. They're not the same thing. A boxer who lands punches while losing the fight is still landing punches.
Cal88
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